1948: Dewey v. Humphrey v. Thurmond v. Wallace
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1948: Dewey v. Humphrey v. Thurmond v. Wallace
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Author Topic: 1948: Dewey v. Humphrey v. Thurmond v. Wallace  (Read 1157 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« on: December 31, 2008, 03:19:06 PM »

Here's the scenario: going into the DNC, Truman announces he won't run again.  Eisenhower announces he won't take the nomination, so the convention is wide open.  After hearing his incredible speech, the convention decides to nominate Humphrey, who selects Barkley as his running mate.  How does the election go?

Democrats:
Mayor Hubert H. Humphrey (Minnesota)
Senator Alben Barkley (Kentucky)

Republicans:
Governor Thomas Dewey (New York)
Governor Earl Warren (California)

State's Rights:
Governor Strom Thurmond (South Carolina)
Governor Fielding Wright (Mississippi)

Progressive:
Fmr. Vice President Henry Wallace (Iowa)
Senator Glen Taylor (Idaho)
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2009, 02:06:56 PM »

Anybody?
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2009, 12:16:52 AM »
« Edited: January 08, 2009, 12:27:57 AM by Romney/Graham 2012 »

Although Humphrey had gained somewhat of a national profile by 1948 and was a rising star in the Democratic Party, he was not ready to mount a successful presidential candidacy at that time.

It would be hard to imagine an individual moving from the office of Mayor of a major midwestern city directly to become President of the United States, even given Humphrey's strong performance at the Democratic National Convention.

Dewey was an established national figure in 1948, and a highly regarded and successful Governor of a major state.

As always, Humphrey puts up an energetic and enthusiastic campaign for President, but falls considerably short.

Dewey realizes his lifelong ambition of becoming President of the United States. 

Dewey/Warren                312
Humphrey/Barkley           181
Thurmond/Wright              38
Wallace/Taylor                    0




After 8 years of President Dewey, by then Senator Humphrey would likely have been in a very strong position to challenge anyone for the Democratic Presidential nomination and the Presidency.  He would, however, have to overcome strong challenges likely from Massachusetts Senator John F Kennedy, Texas Senator Lyndon B Johnson, and former Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson.  If Stevenson had been the nominee in 1952, however, which is likely, then Stevenson would likely not be a major contender for the nomination in 1956.

 
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