Arizona is John McCain's home state

[Holmes]

Alright, I know a lot of people are saying that Arizona can be a very potential pick up for Democrats in 2012. I wanna know what this is based on? Is it the fact that the latino population is expanding, or the fact that Democrats made congressional gains in the last two elections?

Looking at some exit polling, Obama only received 52% of the 18 - 29 age group(14% worse nationally) and 45% of the female vote(11% worse nationally), and those were his best groups nationally. Not to mention he only received 56% of the latino vote, whereas he got almost 70% in New Mexico and 76% in Nevada.

The good news for Democrats would have to be those congressional wins and the fact that, despite Arizona being a home state, Obama did one point better than Kerry. My second question would be, since Arizona is McCain's home state, does anyone think there may be some Obama disdain in 2012? The folks at McCain's concession speech looked pretty pissed, after all.

[Jeff from NC]

The folks at McCain's concession speech were his most partisan supporters.  Of course they were upset.

The reason he underperformed is exactly what you point out in the thread title: it was John McCain's home state.  I'd say Arizona has a good chance, based on the swings we saw in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.  For an analogy, look at Tennessee's swing between 2000 (a narrow Bush win) and 2004 (an easy Bush win).  It'd definitely be a battle and have a lot to do with the particular candidates and the economic situation.  But Clinton won here in 1996, so it can be done.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The folks at McCain's concession speech were his most partisan supporters.  Of course they were upset.

The reason he underperformed is exactly what you point out in the thread title: it was John McCain's home state.  I'd say Arizona has a good chance, based on the swings we saw in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.  For an analogy, look at Tennessee's swing between 2000 (a narrow Bush win) and 2004 (an easy Bush win).  It'd definitely be a battle and have a lot to do with the particular candidates and the economic situation.  But Clinton won here in 1996, so it can be done.

I was going to say the same thing.  Your title pretty much answers your question.  If it wasn't for McCain, Arizona would have gone the way of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

[Holmes]

I guess the argument I'm trying to say is... if Arizona is trending as Democratic as everyone is implying, wouldn't Obama have done better, despite it being McCain's home state? After all, Tennessee was trending Republican quite a bit in 2000, and despite it being Gore's home state, he still lost it.

I'm just saying, I really don't see how Arizona is trending so Democratic, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see the GOP get it again in 2012, unless people know something I don't.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Look at the states it neighbors with.  Or its population trends.  Obama only began to spend money on Arizona when he realized he had a chance, but it was too late.  The fact that McCain had to start campaigning in his own home state a few weeks before the elections shows how much effort he put into winning there.  Perhaps you should also look at some polls for the 2010 Senate race where Napolitano was beating McCain (before she was picked as HS secretary). 
By the way the Gore comparison isn't really a good one.  McCain was a Senator when he ran for president while Gore wasn't.  Gore had also become very liberal when he ran for president, while his home state (which wasn't really his home state anyway because he was born in DC) was becoming more conservative.  He was also running against a southerner (adopted southerner, but still).  If Obama was from California or Colorado he would have probably done a lot better in Arizona.

[LanceMcSteel]

Using a non McCain election as the baseline for Arizona's PVI, the 2004 election showed  AZ was 7.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Since Obama won by almost the exact same margin in 2008, AZ would have been a pure tossup and as close as MO.

[War on Want]

This will be a pure tossup in 2012, unless the Republicans nominate Huckabee or Palin. Then Obama has a good chance of having a lock here.

[pragmatic liberal]

If Obama had been running against Romney then even if Romney did similarly to McCain nationally (say, a 6-7 point Romney loss, which is plausible), Obama would had a very strong chance at carrying Arizona.

Arizona IS more Republican than NV, CO, and NM, but only somewhat more so. As others point out, had Obama contested Arizona, it might have stayed within a few points even with McCain leading the ticket. He almost certainly would have contested the state had McCain not been the Republican nominee and while he might not have won it, it would have been ultra-tight.

[Jacobtm]

AZ was the fourth closest state that Obama lost, after MO, MT and GA. Equalize the results out a little bit to account for the fact that it's McCain's home state and that Obama didn't challenge it nearly as aggressively as all surrounding states (save Texas), and you're left with a better idea of exactly how close this state could be in '12.

Part of the reason that Obama made such huge gains in some states was the sheer amount of voter registration that his campaign conducted, but it wasn't nearly as intense in AZ as it was in NM, CO and especially NV.

[Lunar]

It seems kind of weird to ask: I know Arizona was McCain's homestate and there is usually a strong homestate effect, but why did McCain do so well here?

It wasn't really contested and people like to vote for their home state senator in presidential elections.

[Padfoot]

The Phoenix metro area is also a lot more Republican than Denver or Las Vegas.  It's like the Cincinnati of the Mountain West.

[NOVA Green]

The Phoenix metro area is also a lot more Republican than Denver or Las Vegas.  It's like the Cincinnati of the Mountain West.

This is completely correct, but is there any reason to think that Phoenix is immune from the same political-demographic shifts that have had all of the other urban areas in the Mountain states (high population growth, growing proportion of political independents, and growing percentage of minorities)?

The Vegas, Albuquerque and Denver areas are fast becoming Democratic fortresses, and Salt Lake and Boise are trending hard towards the Democratic Party.

If democrats can break even in Maricopa county (Phoenix Metro), their margins in Tuscon alone would make the state competitive.

[Brittain33]

I guess the argument I'm trying to say is... if Arizona is trending as Democratic as everyone is implying, wouldn't Obama have done better, despite it being McCain's home state? After all, Tennessee was trending Republican quite a bit in 2000, and despite it being Gore's home state, he still lost it.

Gore lost Tennessee narrowly. In the elections since then, it's been among the worst states for Democrats. If Gore hadn't been on the ticket, Tennessee wouldn't have been remotely close.

[RosettaStoned]

More latinos equals more Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

For a liked and respected politician, the Favorite Son effect is worth about 10%. Example: in 1972, South Dakota, usually one of the more conservative states in the Union, was one of the strongest states for George McGovern (even if he lost there). McGovern was then liked and respected in South Dakota.   

McCain won Arizona by a smaller margin than the usual benefits of the Favorite Son effect, indicating either that

(1) McCain wasn't so well liked and respected in Arizona, or

(2) Arizona isn't so Republican-leaning as it seems.

Should the 2012 re-election campaign for Obama be close, then California Democrats will swarm over Arizona as they swarmed over Nevada in 2008. Add to this the growing Latino population which is unlikely to have any ties to any GOP candidate entering the electorate in huge numbers, and Arizona seems a more likely pickup for Obama than Indiana or North Carolina are likely holds.

Arizona will be a swing state in a close election in 2012 along with Ohio, Florida, and perhaps Indiana -- if the election is close. If the 2012 Presidential election isn't close, then Michigan and Pennsylvania will be swing states (Obama failure) or Texas will be a swing state (Obama successful).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Those kinds of numbers prove it was a huge home state effect.  There should not be that big a discrepancy in women and latino vote for a party between AZ and NM and NV.  Those three states are not all that different.