Who should ultimately fill the vacant Illinois U.S. Senate seat?

[Lunar]

But why would Kirk beat any half-decent Democratic candidate?

because Kirk is *the* perfect Republican candidate for Illinois.  Stop this.  I don't want to nitpick about how he has a clean record and the IL Democratic Party doesn't ahve the best reputation.

If a decent Democratic candidate came up in an off-election year with Obama then it'd be a tossup (obviously if Obama was running for election, Kirk would be toast).

All I disagree with is your degree of presumption.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It would be more than a tossup. You act as if Kirk is favored against every single possible Democratic candidate. More like it'd be a tossup against a somewhat flawed Democratic candidate.

[Lunar]

You act as if Kirk is favored against every single possible Democratic candidate.

I never said that.  You're actually the one who's been acting as if he's guaranteed to fail if you reread your own posts in this thread.

But I'm done with this bye

[Iosif]

Kirk won't win statewide against whoever makes it past the primary in 2010. He can't.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

First am I correct when I say that you have to advertise in Chicago media markets in order to win the 10th district. So wouldn't he be well known to people all over Chicago and its Suburbs which have most of the voters of Illinois(I would say 50% to 55%). So I doubt he is unkown.

Lunar is right. He is not projecting victory hell there likely won't be a special election anyway. He is saying that this is definately our best guy to run for a Senate seat in Ill. BRTD seems scared to death of even the remotest chance of there being a Sen Mark Kirk(R-ILL).  What Mark Kirk would have to do, if elected, is not impossible. He just needs vote similarily to the two Maine ladies(ME and ILL were not that different in the 2004 results). Take out the Obama effect and ILL would not have voted that differently from ME. The only think Kirk has to worry about, if he gets by 2010, is the Constitution being changed and and Obama running for a third term(which I doubt) in 2016.   

[Lunar]

First am I correct when I say that you have to advertise in Chicago media markets in order to win the 10th district. So wouldn't he be well known to people all over Chicago and its Suburbs which have most of the voters of Illinois(I would say 50% to 55%). So I doubt he is unkown.

Lunar is right. He is not projecting victory hell there likely won't be a special election anyway. He is saying that this is definately our best guy to run for a Senate seat in Ill. BRTD seems scared to death of even the remotest chance of there being a Sen Mark Kirk(R-ILL).  What Mark Kirk would have to do, if elected, is not impossible. He just needs vote similarily to the two Maine ladies(ME and ILL were not that different in the 2004 results). Take out the Obama effect and ILL would not have voted that differently from ME. The only think Kirk has to worry about, if he gets by 2010, is the Constitution being changed and and Obama running for a third term(which I doubt) in 2016.   

I think the biggest thing he has to worry about is aggressive Obama campaigning for the Democratic candidate

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

First am I correct when I say that you have to advertise in Chicago media markets in order to win the 10th district. So wouldn't he be well known to people all over Chicago and its Suburbs which have most of the voters of Illinois(I would say 50% to 55%). So I doubt he is unkown.

Lunar is right. He is not projecting victory hell there likely won't be a special election anyway. He is saying that this is definately our best guy to run for a Senate seat in Ill. BRTD seems scared to death of even the remotest chance of there being a Sen Mark Kirk(R-ILL).  What Mark Kirk would have to do, if elected, is not impossible. He just needs vote similarily to the two Maine ladies(ME and ILL were not that different in the 2004 results). Take out the Obama effect and ILL would not have voted that differently from ME. The only think Kirk has to worry about, if he gets by 2010, is the Constitution being changed and and Obama running for a third term(which I doubt) in 2016.  

I think the biggest thing he has to worry about is aggressive Obama campaigning for the Democratic candidate

I think the biggest thing he has to worry about is not getting distracted from his House duties by a special election that may not even happen, and thus losing his house seat in 2010.