It's Election Day 2012 and Obama's approval ~50%

[King]

In which of the following opponent scenarios would Obama be mostly likely to lose (taken from Politics1.com potential candidates list)?

Governor Haley Barbour (Mississippi)
Former Governor Jeb Bush (Florida)
Governor Charlie Crist (Florida)
Governor Mitch Daniels (Indiana)
Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Georgia)
Former Governor Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
Governor Bobby Jindal (Louisiana)
Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska)
Governor Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)
Former Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
Governor Mark Sanford (South Carolina)
Congressman Ron Paul (Texas)

[Daniel Z]

Maybe Crist, but if Obama's approval rating is that high it is unlikely that he will lose.

[Nixon in '80]

I'd say Crist, but I agree that even that would be a long shot, unless his disapprove rating is also at ~50%.

[Psychic Octopus]

Crist and Sanford

MAYBE Romney

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Only Crist; although if Obama is at or around 50%, he won't lose.

[Brittain33]

Yes, if he's at 50%, viable candidates with a strongly regional appeal won't win enough EVs to win. So, no Sanford. It also means he's still solid with Democrats, so no cross-party weird appeals, and therefore no Huckabee. I'd give credit to Crist for owning Florida and not being regional; Daniels and Pawlenty for being regional from the right region and not unacceptable; and I guess that's it.

[TomC]

Pawlenty. Maybe Crist. The Southerners won't do it. Jeb needs at least 8 years for Bush fatigue to wear off. Romeny might put more states in play, but Southerners won't take to him like most Republicans, so he'll be hurting to get close to 50% in the popular vote and polling. Same with Jindal. Sanford would have a better shot than any other Southerner, but lacks fire in the belly. No way Gingrich is significantly cutting into Obama's lead among women, minorities, and young people. Who am I forgetting? Ah, yes, sweet Sarah Palin! The base would be charged up, but indies would stick with Obama, even moreso. I don't know enough about Daniel to say, really. Better shot than the Southerners.

[pbrower2a]

All of the aforesaid GOP candidates have their own weaknesses, whether lack of support in some necessary regions (Romney has yet to show that he can win in the South; Huckabee has yet to show that he can win outside the South;  Jeb Bush has a name associated with a failed President; Gingrich is too full of his own intellectual pretensions to distinguish himself against Obama except as a right-wing version; Palin is a scatterbrain; others are comparative neophytes in Presidential politics.

Dubya was able to get re-elected when his approval ratings were in the 40s; such was possible when the opponent had severe deficiencies as a Presidential candidate. I figure that Obama would be re-elected -- barely -- by the margin of one state -- Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Florida, only one of which he would win.    

[Lunar]

I think it depends on whether Obama hits 50% early and plateaus or if he tanks right before reelection

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I don't seem him losing while at over 50% at all.

[tmthforu94]

If the economy has worsed, I would say Mitt Romney. But if it hasn't, I would say someone like Bobby Jindal. Someone who can get the party faithful pumped up, while attracting Independents as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the economy has worsed, I would say Mitt Romney. But if it hasn't, I would say someone like Bobby Jindal. Someone who can get the party faithful pumped up, while attracting Independents as well.

An extemist like Jindal is not the guy to attract Independents. Of course I'm talking to someone who thinks Michele Bachmann is popular in all of Minnesota.

[pbrower2a]

Obama 295-300 electoral votes.  Truman 1948 all over, except no third party.

[??????????]

Crist is a wolf in sheeps clothing.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Mike Huckabee!

[Franzl]

Mike Huckabee!

Yes, please nominate him.

[impactreps]

Mike Huckabee!

I second that! (Unless you're being sarcastic of course, but I still like Mike )