Does McCain have an off-hand chance to ME-2?

[phk]

Many people on the forum predicted that Bush could win CD-2 of Maine in 2004. While this never came to fruition, could McCain have the possbility to win CD-2? Is it just too Democratic of an year? Is its conservatism overrated? etc?

[Хahar 🤔]

ME-2 is far more Democratic than some think.

[Aizen]

Hell no

[Mr.Phips]

Its pretty heavily Democratic at the local level. 

[King]

If it were McCain-Clinton he might, but Maine is Obama country.

[WalterMitty]

If it were McCain-Clinton he might

no.

[Dan the Roman]

There used to be a bigger gap between the districts in the 1990s. The 2002 redistricting was designed to ensure that the then open 2nd district not go to a Republican. Therefore the Democrats added heavily Democratic Waterville to the district, which payed off when Michaud won it 52-48 over Kevin Raye in 2002.

The districts now are a lot closer together. Kerry won the 1st 56-43 and the second 53-46. McCain would probably have to lose statewide by less than three or maby four points in order to have a shot.

[Meeker]

Which is more likely - Obama winning NE-02 or McCain winning ME-02?

That is the real question.

[Padfoot]

Which is more likely - Obama winning NE-02 or McCain winning ME-02?

That is the real question.

In a good year for their respective parties each candidate probably has about a 5-10% shot of winning those.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The McCain of 2000(maverick) would have a decent chance of winning it but McCain of 2008? Alien Space Bats will show up and give me a latte before that happens.

[Kevinstat]

There used to be a bigger gap between the districts in the 1990s. The 2002 redistricting was designed to ensure that the then open 2nd district not go to a Republican. Therefore the Democrats added heavily Democratic Waterville to the district, which payed off when Michaud won it 52-48 over Kevin Raye in 2002.

Michaud's 2002 win was under the old lines.  If Raye had won in 2002, Knox County might have ended up in the 2nd District as the Supreme Court (which drew the lines) had it in its preliminary plan, although the Democrats would have still fought against that as the 1st District seemed quite safe by that time.  Maine doesn't redistrict until after the "2" year elections, although I'm urging my Legislators to put a state constitutional amendment resolution to change that and it seems there might be some support for it.

[minionofmidas]

Nobody worth paying any attention to still considered this a possibility in 2004. 2000 is a different matter.