Sam Spade's 2008 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.3)

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and one other thing:  I'm not going to be around today (like yesterday), so I won't be able to comment on things. 

[Sam Spade]

Updated.  I'm close to putting Delaware in Safe, but I don't like to do that for open Governorships this early (Senate seats are different).

[Sam Spade]

BARBOUR IS NOT SAFE
Sure, he's an overwhelming favorite, but it's not a 100% chance that he'll win.  More like 75%.

Also, if JOHN KERRY can get 40% in Mississippi, John Eaves can get in the high 40's.  Even Kirk Fordice, who was much more loved by Republicans (and less hated by Democrats) only got 55.6 in his reelection in '95.

Barbour 53
Eaves 47

That is my prediction until further notice.

This post is well worth bumping.  I suspect some others will be come November too.

[Sam Spade]

updated

[Sam Spade]

I should be able to finish this one tonight.

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS (not complete)

GOVERNOR 2008
WINNER IN RED

Delaware* Markell (D) 65, Lee (R) 35 DEM HOLD
Indiana: Long-Thompson (D) 40, Daniels (R) 58, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Missouri* Nixon (D) 56, Hulshof (R) 42, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Montana: Schweitzer (D) 56, Brown (R) 41, Others 3 DEM HOLD
New Hampshire: Lynch (D) 70, Kinney (R) 30 DEM HOLD
North Carolina* Perdue (D) 48, McCrory (R) 50, Others 2 GOP PICKUP
North Dakota: Mathern (D) 29, Hoeven (R) 70, Others 1 GOP HOLD
Utah: Springmeyer (D) 21, Huntsman (R) 75, Others 4 GOP HOLD
Vermont: Symington (D) 26, Douglas (R) 48, Pollina (I) 25 SENT TO LEGISLATURE (GOP HOLD)
Washington: Gregoire (D) 51, Rossi (R) 49 DEM HOLD
West Virginia: Manchin (D) 74, Weeks (R) 23, Others 3 DEM HOLD

[Sam Spade]

updated.  I am throwing out one upset which the WA crew won't like (and the polling doesn't mirror), but I feel like doing...

[Sam Spade]

bump and finalized.  I decided to switch NC and WA based on last -day polling.

[CultureKing]

remember that Gregoire + Rossi needs to = 100% because they are the only two options after the top-two primary.

[Sam Spade]

remember that Gregoire + Rossi needs to = 100% because they are the only two options after the top-two primary.

Thanks.  Adjusted.

[Sam Spade]

Now that results are sufficiently finalized, I want to look at my predictions and see how well or badly I did.  MOE is 5% in my book (or anything that rounds to 5% - just to cheat a little) as to accuracy...
Delaware*
PREDICTION: Markell (D) 65, Lee (R) 35 DEM HOLD
ACTUAL: Markell (D) 67.5, Lee (R) 32.0, Others 0.5 GOP+5.5 (outside MOE)
COMMENTS: Dems did slightly better in Delaware than I expected, in general.

Indiana:
PREDICTION: Long-Thompson (D) 40, Daniels (R) 58, Others 2 GOP HOLD
ACTUAL: Long-Thompson (D) 40.0, Daniels (R) 57.8, Others 2.2 GOP +0.2 (on target!!!)
COMMENTS: Long-Thompson = one of the most pathetic candidates ever.

Missouri*
PREDICTION: Nixon (D) 56, Hulshof (R) 42, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
ACTUAL: Nixon (D) 58.4, Hulshof (R) 39.5, Others 2.1 GOP +4.9
COMMENTS: Hulshof's performance was equally pathetic.

Montana:
PREDICTION: Schweitzer (D) 56, Brown (R) 41, Others 3 DEM HOLD
ACTUAL: Schweitzer (D) 65.5, Brown (R) 32.5, Others 2.0 GOP +18 (outside MOE)
COMMENTS: Shame on me for ever believing the polls here.  Ugh.

New Hampshire:
PREDICTION: Lynch (D) 70, Kinney (R) 30 DEM HOLD
ACTUAL: Lynch (D) 70.2, Kinney (R) 27.6 GOP +2.6
COMMENTS: Didn't know a third-party was running here.  No big deal - otherwise correct.

North Carolina*
PREDICTION: Perdue (D) 48, McCrory (R) 50, Others 2 GOP PICKUP
ACTUAL: Perdue (D) 50.2, McCrory (R) 46.9, Others 2.9 GOP +5.3 (wrong winner)
COMMENTS: Just got the numbers reversed, folks! 

North Dakota:
PREDICTION: Mathern (D) 29, Hoeven (R) 70, Others 1 GOP HOLD
ACTUAL: Mathern (D) 23.5, Hoeven (R) 74.4, Others 2.0 DEM +9.9 (outside MOE)
COMMENTS: Being off on these easy races annoys me.

Utah:
PREDICTION: Springmeyer (D) 21, Huntsman (R) 75, Others 4 GOP HOLD
ACTUAL: Springmeyer (D) 19.7, Huntsman (R) 77.7, Others 2.6 DEM +4.0
COMMENTS: Yawn.

Vermont:
PREDICTION: Symington (D) 26, Douglas (R) 48, Pollina (I) 25 SENT TO LEGISLATURE (GOP HOLD)
ACTUAL: Symington (D) 21.7, Douglas (R) 53.4, Pollina (I) 21.8 DEM +9.7 (outside MOE, not sent to legislature)
COMMENTS: Who knew Symington was so pathetic?  Vermonters, I guess...

Washington:
PREDICTION: Gregoire (D) 51, Rossi (R) 49 DEM HOLD
ACTUAL: Gregoire (D) 53.2, Rossi (R) 46.8 GOP +4.4
COMMENTS: One of the first rules of politics: Retreads are rarely as good as the original thing.

West Virginia:
PREDICTION: Manchin (D) 74, Weeks (R) 23, Others 3 DEM HOLD
ACTUAL: Manchin (D) 70.4, Weeks (R) 25.6, Others 4.0 DEM +5.2
COMMENTS: Looks like Manchin was hurt by low turnout. 

[Alcon]

updated.  I am throwing out one upset which the WA crew won't like (and the polling doesn't mirror), but I feel like doing...

Wait wait, what happened to that prediction? 

[Sam Spade]

updated.  I am throwing out one upset which the WA crew won't like (and the polling doesn't mirror), but I feel like doing...

Wait wait, what happened to that prediction? 

I changed it day before the election.  Didn't like making it with what I saw in the polling...

Referenced in this post...

bump and finalized.  I decided to switch NC and WA based on last -day polling.

[Lunar]

Not bad Sam, you nailed a few of them beautifully.

COMMENTS: Being off on these easy races annoys me.

Is there some kind of mathematical formula we can apply to small states just to add 10-15% to the establishment candidate's polling numbers to reach the reality?  I feel like all these small-state uncompetitive races act uniformly and inevitably end up on top of the poll results.

edit: screw Alaska, besides them

[minionofmidas]

I feel like all these small-state uncompetitive races act uniformly and inevitably end up on top of the poll results.

edit: screw Alaska, besides them

Huh? What you mean? What uncompetitive race in Alaska has ended up closer than the polling suggested in recent years?

[Sam Spade]

Is there some kind of mathematical formula we can apply to small states just to add 10-15% to the establishment candidate's polling numbers to reach the reality? 

That's not actually the way it often works.  Often all the undecideds push to the challenger or turnout differs in some way.  If it were only that simple.

[Lunar]

Alas.

I feel like all these small-state uncompetitive races act uniformly and inevitably end up on top of the poll results.

edit: screw Alaska, besides them

Huh? What you mean? What uncompetitive race in Alaska has ended up closer than the polling suggested in recent years?

Oh, you're right.