Highest swing/trend in each state, 2008

[nclib]

      Obama swing/trend   McCain swing/trend
         
Alabama      Montgomery   Jackson
Arizona      Santa Cruz   Gila
Arkansas      Crittenden   Poinsett
California      Merced   San Francisco**
Colorado      Weld   Rio Blanco
Connecticut      Fairfield   New London
Delaware      Kent   Sussex
Florida      Osceola   Liberty
Georgia      Rockdale   Echols
Hawaii      Honolulu**   Hawaii
Idaho      Teton   Butte
Illinois      Wabash   Massac
Indiana      Dubois   Ohio
Iowa      Winneshiek   Clarke
Kansas      Geary   Linn
Kentucky      Hancock   Knott
Louisiana      Madison   Cameron
Maine      Knox   Washington
Maryland      Charles   Allegany
Massachusetts      Nantucket   Bristol
Michigan      St. Joseph   Keweenaw
Minnesota      Wilkin   Morrison
Mississippi      Sharkey/Hinds*   Alcorn
Missouri      Nodaway   Pemiscot
Montana      Big Horn   Richland
Nebraska      Sarpy   Thomas
Nevada      Pershing   Eureka
New Hampshire      Coos   Rockingham
New Jersey      Cumberland   Ocean
New Mexico      Mora   Harding
New York      Essex   Niagara
North Carolina      Cumberland   Columbus
North Dakota      Grant/Traill*   Dunn
Ohio      Williams   Gallia
Oklahoma      Oklahoma   Coal
Oregon      Washington   Sherman
Pennsylvania      Lancaster   Fayette
Rhode Island      Bristol   Kent
South Carolina      Richland   Abbeville
South Dakota      Marshall   Jackson
Tennessee      Shelby   Scott
Texas      Maverick   Newton
Utah      Salt Lake   Uintah
Vermont      Essex**   Windham**
Virginia      Harrisonburg   Tazewell
Washington      Chelan   Garfield
West Virginia      Berkeley   Mingo
Wisconsin      Richland   Douglas
Wyoming      Teton   Hot Springs

*highest is prob. a mistake so I included 2nd highest
**every county in this state swung one way and this county had the most (or least) to swing since it was already the most Democratic (or Republican) county in the state.
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Comments?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Tazewell isn't much of a surprise; that whole area seemed to swing heavily to McCain, although it gave 58% to Warner.

[nclib]

Highest and lowest swinging/trending CD in each state (in states with >3 CD's):

This might be more relevant since some of the strongly swinging counties above are very small.

highest   lowest

AL-7   AL-4
AZ-4   AZ-1
AR-3*   AR-1
CA-47   CA-8
CO-4   CO-3
CT-4   CT-2
FL-3   FL-2   
GA-13 (GA-7)   GA-9
IL-8   IL-1
IN-4   IN-1
IA-1   IA-3
KS-3   KS-1
KY-3   KY-5
LA-6   LA-7
MD-5   MD-1
MA-8   MA-9
MI-3   MI-14*
MN-7   MN-8
MS-2   MS-4 (MS-1)
MO-1   MO-8
NE-2   NE-3
NV-2*   NV-3
NJ-13   NJ-9
NM-1   NM-2
NY-29   NY-9
NC-9   NC-7 (NC-10)
OH-5   OH-6
OK-5   OK-2
OR-1   OR-4
PA-16   PA-12
SC-2   SC-3
TN-9   TN-4
TX-15   TX-8
UT-3*   UT-2*
VA-3   VA-9
WA-1       WA-3
WV-2   WV-3
WI-8   WI-5

- 2nd highest (or lowest) result is included when data overlaps

*both times the highest Dem (or GOP) but all CD's in its state swung Democratic (or GOP), so it had less (or more) room to swing

[HAnnA MArin County]

The Missouri counties aren't a big surprise. Nodaway County in Northwest Missouri is home to Northwest Missouri State University in Maryville, so a big youth turnout was probably the reason why this county swung the most Democratic in Missouri. It was also one of only six counties that Obama won during the Missouri Democratic Primary back in February.

Pemiscot County is a bit of an anomaly. It's very Democratic - all elected county officials are Democrats and the county is represented by a Democrat in the Missouri House of Representatives. It's one of the poorest counties in Missouri and has a substantial African American population as well, compared to other rural Missouri counties. Pemiscot voted for every other Democrat on the ballot with the exception of Barack Obama and Joe Allen, the Democratic candidate who challenged MO-08 Republican incumbent Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (the woman is just too popular here and her center-right stance allows her to draw broad appeal from Republicans as well as a substantial amount of Democrats here. She'll hold this seat until she retires or dies, whichever comes first).

I only have two plausible explanations for the biggest GOP swing in Missouri here in Pemiscot County: 1) the Clinton factor (its close proximity to Arkansas, Hillary won the county by 70+ percent in the primary) or 2) blatant racism when a county votes for all other Democrats except for the half-black man on the ticket. Pemiscot County was won both times by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and again in 2000 by Al Gore and John Kerry just narrowly lost the county in 2004 (by like 17 votes, I think). I can't think of any other reason why one of the most Democratic counties in the state of Missouri would swing so strongly Republican in a big Democratic year.

[nclib]

      Obama swing/trend   McCain swing/trend
         
Arkansas      Crittenden   Poinsett
New Mexico      Mora   Harding

AR and NM have the counties with the largest and smallest Obama swing bordering each other (DE and RI are excluded since they have <10 counties). Any comments on why those counties swung so differently.

[nclib]

Interesting how a lot of these border states with stronger overall trends:

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Certainly some are flukes (such as Weld, CO which I explained above) though certainly in many cases campaigning crosses state lines.

[Verily]

      Obama swing/trend   McCain swing/trend
         
Arkansas      Crittenden   Poinsett
New Mexico      Mora   Harding

AR and NM have the counties with the largest and smallest Obama swing bordering each other (DE and RI are excluded since they have <10 counties). Any comments on why those counties swung so differently.

Crittenden County is one of the only heavily black counties in Arkansas, 47%. No idea about New Mexico.

[Smash255]

      Obama swing/trend   McCain swing/trend
         
Arkansas      Crittenden   Poinsett
New Mexico      Mora     Harding

AR and NM have the counties with the largest and smallest Obama swing bordering each other (DE and RI are excluded since they have <10 counties). Any comments on why those counties swung so differently.

As of the 2000 census Crittenden was 51% white, 47% black, Poinsett was 91% white, 7% black.

Mora County is more than 80% Hispanic, Harding is just extremely tiny.