1988: Bentsen VS Bush

[Workers' Friend]

Not sure how plausible it'd be for Lloyd Bentsen to beat Dukakis in the 1988 DNC primary, but if he somehow did, could Bentsen win the election?" Discuss with optional maps.

My prediction:

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bush 318-220:

[Lincoln Republican]

Bentsen is a slightly better candidate than Dukakis, but comes across as somewhat condescending.  He does not go over well with the average voter.

Big win for Bush.

Bush                                       367
Bentsen                                  171

[War on Want]

[Robespierre's Jaw]

George H.W. Bush/J. Danforth Quayle (R): 284 EV
Lloyd M. Bentsen/Richard A. Gephardt (D): 254 EV

Vice President George Bush narrowly defeats Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas to succeed outgoing President Ronald Reagan as 41st President of the United States. The Presidential Election of 1988 is profoundly closer than the RL Bush/Dukakis match up, thanks in part to Bentsen securing many states in the upper South and Midwest. The election comes down to Michigan and her 20 Electoral College votes which Vice President Bush wins narrowly.

[phk]

George H.W. Bush/J. Danforth Quayle (R): 284 EV
Lloyd M. Bentsen/Richard A. Gephardt (D): 254 EV

Vice President George Bush narrowly defeats Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas to succeed outgoing President Ronald Reagan as 41st President of the United States. The Presidential Election of 1988 is profoundly closer than the RL Bush/Dukakis match up, thanks in part to Bentsen securing many states in the upper South and Midwest. The election comes down to Michigan and her 20 Electoral College votes which Vice President Bush wins narrowly.

Cali would fall if those other states do.

[bhouston79]

Bentsen wins a very narrow victory in the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by about a million votes.  Narrowly carrying his home state of Texas turns out to be his key to victory.  Here's the results

Electoral Votes

Bentsen 274
Bush      264

Popular Vote
Bush        50.1 %
Bentsen   48.8 %

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Cali would fall if those other states do.

You are probably correct Rocket, but I simply cannot see Bush losing California, despite Bentsen performing much better than Governor Dukakis in the RL 1988 Presidential Election. Although I might sound stupid for saying this but I think that the Gipper would have contributed to Vice President Bush's success in carrying the state. Though saying this, I would expect Vice President Bush in this scenario, to have won California by the same RL margin over Governor Dukakis or even closer than in RL.

BHouston79, how come in a vast majority of your maps regarding any 1988 scenario Vermont always goes to the Democratic candidate. Vermont was a solid Republican state up until the 1992 Presidential Election and would have easily voted for the moderate Bush rather than the Southerner Bentsen.

[bhouston79]

Cali would fall if those other states do.

BHouston79, how come in a vast majority of your maps regarding any 1988 scenario Vermont always goes to the Democratic candidate. Vermont was a solid Republican state up until the 1992 Presidential Election and would have easily voted for the moderate Bush rather than the Southerner Bentsen.

Your right about Vermont being reliably Republican for most of the 20th Century.  However, the state was certainly on the verge of flipping in 1988.  It was part of Dukakis's infamous 18 state strategy because the Dukakis campaign knew that the trends in that state were favorable to Democrats, and Dukakis did in fact run better in Vermont than he did nationally.  (he lost by about 8% nationally, and he lost by less than 4% in Vermont)  I think Bentson or Gephardt would have been a much stronger general election candidate for the Democrats in 1988, and with tighter national polls I simply believe that Vermont would have flipped that year.  Bill Clinton after all carried the state by 16% in 1992 and they elected a self described socialist to the U.S. House in 1990.  I don't think that the state changed that radically in 2 years.  And even when you look at the 1984 Presidential election results in Vermont, you'll find that Walter Mondale performed slightly better in Vermont than he did nationally.  (He lost Vermont by 17% and he lost nationally by 18%).  I could of course be wrong, but that's my opinion of things.

[The Populist]

[Dr. Cynic]

I don't see how Lloyd Bentsen would squander a 30 point lead like Dukakis. Bush may have been able to chip away, but Bentsen was not the creampuff Dukakis was.