Media Markets and the Results

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it just me or was the link between the results in certain areas (especially certain types of area) and media markets waaaaaaaaaay stronger than normal this time round [qm].

[Nym90]

I noticed this as well but would be interested to see some specific examples of it. Numbers?

[Nym90]

Yeah, as I look more, you are definitely right.

Would be very interesting to do a map comparing Obama's ad spending by media market with the swing towards him vs. 2004. I suspect you'd see a correlation.

My theory here is that the more people saw of Obama and the more likely people were to know Obama volunteers and supporters working the streets (not in the Opebo way) in their neighborhoods, the better Obama did. Which makes sense; much easier to dispel myths about Muslims and radicals with education. Obama seems to have been highly effective in overcoming predjudice in places where he really tried, and to have done very poorly in overcoming it in areas where he didn't. Which again, makes sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference:

[cinyc]

I noticed this as well but would be interested to see some specific examples of it. Numbers?

Some of this may be due to a more concentrated GOTV effort in particular Democrat-friendly areas, rather than ads.  One way to test this would be to compare the 2004 and 2008 out-of-swing-state portions of multi-state media markets with other media markets in that non-swing state.

Take the Philly media market, for example.  It was probably one of the most expensive and extensive media buys during the campaign.  Obama appears to be up big versus 2004 in the PA portions of that market - including the Allentown portion of that market.  Yet, at a quick first glance, in New Jersey (which is divided into the Philadelphia and NYC markets), I don't see any major difference in the swing between the South Jersey counties in the Philadelphia media market and the North Jersey counties in the NYC media market.    I'd have to crunch the numbers to be sure, though.

Some of the media buys were probably on PA local cable.

[Хahar 🤔]

For reference:

I might do a map by media market once all the votes are tabulated.

[Lunar]

Media market vs. "trend" for swing states on Dave's map would be the most interesting to me.