Britain's economy overtaken by France...and other worrying things

[afleitch]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5299162.ece

QUELLE horreur! Britain’s economy has been overtaken by France and, according to economists, could even fall behind Italy next year. On the eve of the visit to London of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, new figures show that the economic crisis has pushed Britain well down the international league table.

The country’s fall t o become the sixth largest economy in the world, behind America, Japan, China, Germany and France, reflects the pound’s slump to record lows against the euro. A year ago the UK economy was 8% bigger than that of France, measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Now, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), it is 14% smaller.

Britain has also dropped to sixth place in the world on another measure which adjusts for short-term exchange rate fluctuations. These figures, compiled on a so-called purchasing parity basis, show that India is now a bigger economy than Britain, along with America, Japan, China and Germany.

Unemployment may climb to over 3 million

The British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and Standard Chartered Bank have now predicted unemployment reaching three million.

At present there are a staggering 9.7 million people of working age who are not economically active in this country. 20 years ago that figure was 6.9 million. It should be noted that these figures include students, early retirees and those looking after loved ones. However presently they include
1.8 million unemplyed and 2.1 million not actively seeking employment including an 'honest' 40,000 who have declared that they are 'discouraged workers' - or 'cannot be arsed'

July - September Unemployment Rates in the UK

North East - 8.0%
London - 7.4%
North West - 6.8%
Yorks and Humber - 6.8%
Wales - 6.7%
West Midlands - 6.5%
East Midlands - 5.9%
East - 4.8%
Scotland - 4.7%
South East - 4.6%
South West - 4.2%
Northern Ireland - 4.1%

[GMantis]

Does the North East always lead those lists?

[Hash]

Not that the French economy is especially great.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering the overweening importance of the City to the British economy it'd be amazing if it didn't "fall behind" other economies of similar size for now. There's no rational reason to be even mildly worried by that (though neither would their be a rational reason to be pleased if, in a few years time or whever, things swap around again).

Unemployment may climb to over 3 million

The British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and Standard Chartered Bank have now predicted unemployment reaching three million.

Raw figures are meaningless here (beyond attempts to scare people or, perhaps, to score points). It might be interesting to see what their forecasts are as %'s, but not really. I mean, no one really knows how bad (or not) things are going to get.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The last figures for inactivity that I've seen (this months Economic & Labour Market Review; figures are from late summer, early autumn though. APS (this would be up to March I think) data shows basically the same, IIRC) are like 8 million or so. It might go up by around two million or so if you added the official unemployment estimates or something, but you really, really shouldn't do that as the officially unemployed have always been counted as being economically active. If you want a measure of "real" unemployment, you'd be better off looking at employment rate figures.

Some figures from the 1981 census;

Pop. over 16: 41,615,623
Pop. retired: 4,708,632
Pop. over 16 and not retired: 36,906,991
---
'' '' economically inactive: 11,530,570

Note that "economically inactive" did not then (and does not now) include people "looking for work" (ie; the usual definition (as far as governments are concerned, or at least the bulk of the usual definition) of unemployment. Interestingly, about about 77% of those classified as "economically inactive" (yet not retired) in 1981 were subclassified as "economically inactive: other", a group that was something like 99% female. Even now "economically inactive of working age" in total is like two thirds female.

More fun with statistics:

Claimant count Oct. '83: 3,094,022
Claimant count Oct. '08:    970,279

Of course, Oct. '09 will be higher than Oct. '08 and a smaller percentage of people out of work get unemployment benefit (sorry, JSA) than used to be the case.

[Keystone Phil]

QUELLE horreur! Britain’s economy has been overtaken by France

Terrible

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Excellent

[Silent Hunter]

Does the North East always lead those lists?

Generally, yes.

[Jacobtm]

So it seems they're measuring GDP at exchange rate value instead of PPP, which distorts the real wealth of a country based on their currency's current price.

[opebo]

So it seems they're measuring GDP at exchange rate value instead of PPP, which distorts the real wealth of a country based on their currency's current price.

That's not a distortion, its realistic.  The PPP is the distortion.

As for Britain falling behind France, it certainly seems inevitable.   The Anglo-Saxon model is inherently more 'boom and bust' than the Continental one.

[Jacobtm]

So it seems they're measuring GDP at exchange rate value instead of PPP, which distorts the real wealth of a country based on their currency's current price.

That's not a distortion, its realistic.  The PPP is the distortion.

Many economists would disagree.

[big bad fab]

I remember similar articles in France (when was it ? in the beginning or the middle of the 1990s ?) on France falling behind Britain and debates on whether France should adopt Thatcherite policies (overwhelmingly won by opponents to the then "British model"...).

All of this between EU countries is a bit stupid. The problem is that some aren't able to reform anything (Italy, Belgium / Romania, Bulgaria), some are less and less able to reform (Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain / Latvia), some are failing to reform (France, Greece / Hungary).

[GMantis]

I remember similar articles in France (when was it ? in the beginning or the middle of the 1990s ?) on France falling behind Britain and debates on whether France should adopt Thatcherite policies (overwhelmingly won by opponents to the then "British model"...).

All of this between EU countries is a bit stupid. The problem is that some aren't able to reform anything (Italy, Belgium / Romania, Bulgaria), some are less and less able to reform (Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain / Latvia), some are failing to reform (France, Greece / Hungary).

I wouldn't say that Bulgaria and Romania aren't able to reform anything, they're just doing (especially Bulgaria) excruciatingly slowly.

[big bad fab]

I remember similar articles in France (when was it ? in the beginning or the middle of the 1990s ?) on France falling behind Britain and debates on whether France should adopt Thatcherite policies (overwhelmingly won by opponents to the then "British model"...).

All of this between EU countries is a bit stupid. The problem is that some aren't able to reform anything (Italy, Belgium / Romania, Bulgaria), some are less and less able to reform (Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain / Latvia), some are failing to reform (France, Greece / Hungary).

I wouldn't say that Bulgaria and Romania aren't able to reform anything, they're just doing (especially Bulgaria) excruciatingly slowly.

I agree. My post was just elliptic.

[Lief 🗽]

Phil's post was totally expected, but I laughed nonetheless.

Good to know that American and Germany are hanging in there, though once the Great Depression/Apocalypse really gets into high gear, this list will move around quite a bit.