Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[TheresNoMoney]

Georgia people! With 1,994,990 people voted through today, black percentage is still at 35.08%. 

I heard they might allow early voting today as well?

[Tender Branson]

Georgia people! With 1,994,990 people voted through today, black percentage is still at 35.08%. 

I heard they might allow early voting today as well?

So far 43% of all registered Blacks have voted, 34% of Whites and 23% of Others.

The important question will be if Blacks also finish ahead on Election Day and if the share is not reduced to less than 31%. Because with 31%, Obama has a slight chance to win the state.

[Alcon]

OREGON -- While this won't hold up or anything, the breakdown of returned ballots so far says a lot.



(edit: flipped benton and polk, and lane and douglas. sigh.)

So far, Democrats have 62% of the two-party ballot returns in Oregon.  In 2004, the final number was 52%.

Some pretty impressive numbers here -- 68% in Benton (Corvallis), 59% in Clackamas (southern Portland suburbs/Bush county), 54% in Jackson (Medford), 80% in Multnomah (Portland), 62% in Washington (west 'burbs).

Again:  Some ancestral voting in the East, and the gap should go down, but still, shows where the enthusiasm is at.  GOP turnout in Oregon is almost universally higher.

Curiosity calculation:  Using SUSA's partisan break-downs to extrapolate this ridiculously, Obama leads turned-in ballots 60%-37%, and gives the following patently ridiculous map.



For Democratic salivary glands only.  Even if Obama won by 23 points (lol) it would look nothing like this, with heavier ditro to Multnoco, where indys outnumber Republicans.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON -- While this won't hold up or anything, the breakdown of returned ballots so far says a lot.



(edit: flipped benton and polk. grahh)

So far, Democrats have 62% of the two-party ballot returns in Oregon.  In 2004, the final number was 52%.

Some pretty impressive numbers here -- 68% in Benton (Corvallis), 59% in Clackamas (southern Portland suburbs/Bush county), 54% in Jackson (Medford), 80% in Multnomah (Portland), 62% in Washington (west 'burbs).

Again:  Some ancestral voting in the East, and the gap should go down, but still, shows where the enthusiasm is at.  GOP turnout in Oregon is almost universally higher.

Curiosity calculation:  Using SUSA's partisan break-downs to extrapolate this ridiculously, Obama leads turned-in ballots 60%-37%, and gives the following patently ridiculous map.



(edit: flipped douglas and lane.  supergrahh.)

For Democratic salivary glands only.  Even if Obama won by 23 points (lol) it would look nothing like this, with heavier ditro to Multnoco, where indys outnumber Republicans.

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

[Josh/Devilman88]

And these are all of NC early votes(I believe):

2008 General Election Absentee Stats as of 11/01/2008 11:00pm
TOTALS:
ONESTOP 2,369,577               Total Absentee Ballots Cast: 2,573,206
CIVILIAN 193,291                   Total Registered Voters: 6,232,230
MILITARY 7,021                        Turnout: 41%
OVERSEAS 3,317




 2008
Party   
Dem 51.8% 
Rep 30.0%
None 18.2% 
Age   
18-29 13.9% 
30-44 22.7% 
45-64 40.7% 
65+ 22.7% 
Race   
White 69.5% 
Black 26.3% 
Other 4.1% 
Sex   
Men 42.7%
Women 56.4% 
Unk 0.2%

[Alcon]

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

I did a primary-based model.  The results are here.  There's some, um, oddities such as Obama falling in Hood River.  That seems unlikely.  I forget what was close.  McCain won Curry by double-digits in my model, but I dunno.  Deschutes was quite close.  Union and Crook are tough nuts to crack.  I'll definitely be watching you guys very closely on election night.  I would never, ever have seen this race been approaching +15 in Oregon.  Obama has gotten a pretty incredible chunk of persuadables in the state.

Pretty much every model I run has Jackson flipping, which in itself is impressive.  All have Clackamas, Tillamook and Wasco.  Coos is in most, as are Marion.  A sizable minority have Linn, Polk and Yamhill.  Blanking on any others atm...

I don't think any had Jefferson, though, but Madras is so beyond my knowledge, and the scope of the models.  It's a confusing place for me (Crook County too)

[NOVA Green]

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

I did a primary-based model.  The results are here.  There's some, um, oddities such as Obama falling in Hood River.  That seems unlikely.  I forget what was close.  McCain won Curry by double-digits in my model, but I dunno.  Deschutes was quite close.  Union and Crook are tough nuts to crack.  I'll definitely be watching you guys very closely on election night.  I would never, ever have seen this race been approaching +15 in Oregon.  Obama has gotten a pretty incredible chunk of persuadables in the state.

Pretty much every model I run has Jackson flipping, which in itself is impressive.  All have Clackamas, Tillamook and Wasco.  Coos is in most, as are Marion.  A sizable minority have Linn, Polk and Yamhill.  Blanking on any others atm...

I don't think any had Jefferson, though, but Madras is so beyond my knowledge, and the scope of the models.  It's a confusing place for me (Crook County too)

No question Obama wins Hood River by at least 10 points....

Clackamas, Tillamook, Marion, and Wasco, and Polk are gone without question, although McCain should fall within a 5-8 point margin.

I feel more concerned about Jackson and Coos counties, although demographic changes in the Medford area tend to favor Dems at the national level. Coos is one of those blue-collar historic timber Dem counties (I believe they went for Mondale in '84) where there might be a bit of reversal from the past few cycles where there was a backlash against the national ticket for perceived excesses on national resource issues and guns. Curry county is a slight long shot, but Southern Oregon is changing, and the socially liberal retiree vote may well swing towards Obama.

Eastern Oregon is interesting, and I have gone out on a limb before predicting a few of these counties. Deschutes is extremely wealthy with many California retirees, but don't forget that this is a county that went with the change message of Lonsdale in the Senate race in '90. Jefferson county has a large Latino population, a Native American population, and wealthy Anglo tourist sector. Union county gave 47% to Dukakis in '88, and I suspect with the student vote that Obama may well carry this county.

[ucscgaldamez]

Today was the last day to vote early in Florida, right?

[J. J.]

Youth voters picked up in NC, but are still about a point below their 2004 vote share.

[Sbane]

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

I did a primary-based model.  The results are here.  There's some, um, oddities such as Obama falling in Hood River.  That seems unlikely.  I forget what was close.  McCain won Curry by double-digits in my model, but I dunno.  Deschutes was quite close.  Union and Crook are tough nuts to crack.  I'll definitely be watching you guys very closely on election night.  I would never, ever have seen this race been approaching +15 in Oregon.  Obama has gotten a pretty incredible chunk of persuadables in the state.

Pretty much every model I run has Jackson flipping, which in itself is impressive.  All have Clackamas, Tillamook and Wasco.  Coos is in most, as are Marion.  A sizable minority have Linn, Polk and Yamhill.  Blanking on any others atm...

I don't think any had Jefferson, though, but Madras is so beyond my knowledge, and the scope of the models.  It's a confusing place for me (Crook County too)

So why is Marion county not flipping while Jackson is? Does it have to do with growth? Has Ashland tripled in size or something. BTW I am talking about the map you linked.

[Alcon]

Cold hands, quick summary

Bush way overperformed in Medford, working-class whites with more competitive tradition who liked him

Phoenix/Talent should swing, too

Marion County is pretty polarized

There's also an Oregon thread under Gubernatorial for more discussion