Beef's county map predictions

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

WI I know quite well.

[Ronnie]

What's the margin in WI?  Obama 54, McCain 44?

[Torie]

That is kind of what it looks like.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What's the margin in WI?  Obama 54, McCain 44?

I'm going to say more like 52-46.  It will be closer than the current polls indicate, but nowhere near the razor-thin races in 2000 and 2004. 

This looks like a 52-46 map, especially when you consider how heavy Obama's support will be in Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) Counties.  Still room for a lot of blue counties: Milwaukee burbs, eastern rurals, and some northern "sportsmen."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A 54-44 map has McCain winning the burbs and and a handful of eastern rural counties, but not much else.

[Torie]

Explain Door County to me, which was 3% more GOP than the state in 2004. Why is it a darker red?  What do the colors mean? What kind of swing is predicted there from 2004 Beef, and based on what, in this black free heavily Catholic  county?

[Ronnie]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

[Torie]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

Washburn was even in 2004, so the light red makes sense to me. I think it is in the Lutheran zone, but I could be wrong. Door seems messed up.

[Ronnie]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

Washburn was even in 2004, so the light red makes sense to me. Door seems messed up.

If WI swings 6 percent Democratic and it was essentially even in '04, Obama should be getting a majority.

[Torie]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

Washburn was even in 2004, so the light red makes sense to me. Door seems messed up.

If WI swings 6 percent Democratic and it was essentially even in '04, Obama should be getting a majority.

Ya, the color coding is confusing. So many light red colors, suggest a lot of skin tight counties, if they mean less than 50% for Obama which he nevertheless carries. The suggestion however that Door will swing to Obama a lot more than Washburn strikes me as odd.

[Ronnie]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

Washburn was even in 2004, so the light red makes sense to me. Door seems messed up.

If WI swings 6 percent Democratic and it was essentially even in '04, Obama should be getting a majority.

Ya, the color coding is confusing. So many light red colors, suggest a lot of skin tight counties, if they mean less than 50% for Obama which he nevertheless carries. The suggestion however that Door will swing to Obama a lot more than Washburn strikes me as odd.

Yeah, Beef should have checked the margins more carefully.  Moving on...

[Torie]

It would be better to define the colors as carry up to 55%, 55% to 60%, over 60%, and over 70%. That way you get a break within the 50's. Depend9ng on the state, you might want to dump the over 70%, and split the 50's into three parts.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The shading in Washburn county is messed up as well.

Washburn was even in 2004, so the light red makes sense to me. I think it is in the Lutheran zone, but I could be wrong. Door seems messed up.

Shell Lake and Spooner are getting more drawn into the Twin Cities sphere of influence every year.  Those crazy old jazz professors who hang out there half the year also have to have some sort of influence .

Door County is a tricky one to predict.  Sturgeon Bay I think will have hefty working class Obama support along the lines of Kewaunee, Algoma, Manitowoc, and of course Green Bay.  There will be a lot of Bush voters switching due to the economy.  Door County also has a lot of small business owners in the tourist industry.  Are they more concerned with the economy or taxes? 

They are a progressive bunch; in a way Door County is more cosmopolitan than Kewaunee or rural Brown, which are very parochial Polish Catholic.  I'm not sure if WAUN in Kewaunee is still a polka station, but you get the idea.  The Door is similar to Eagle River, which makes me wonder if I should flip Vilas County.

Forgot to color Washington Island with the rest of the Door.