Obama might do a bit better now in the next PA Quinnipiac poll...

[Keystone Phil]

Wow, I've never had pollsters call my house (of all the damn houses!) as much as they have this year!

I saw Quinnipiac on the caller ID and had to pick up. The lady gave me the usual run down but then stuck a dagger in my heart - she had to randomly choose a voter at my house to complete the survey. How did they choose? Well, she asked for the voter in the house with most recent upcoming Birthday. My Birthday isn't until May and my Mother's Birthday is in November. Being the honest person that I am, I made her aware of this but asked if I could complete the survey. I explained to her how I'm going to be voting and since I'm political, I was interested in participating. Unfortunately, she wouldn't make an exception. 

She claims that she'll call back to speak with my Mom later tonight. I just hope my Mom and I are home then. If we're not, Obama will have more of an advantage. 

Just more proof that the PA polls will overstate Obama's advantage. 

[Eraserhead]

Your mom is voting for Obama? What an FF.

Seriously though, I would have just lied.

[Sam Spade]

That's an odd way to choose who to talk to.

[Dr. Cynic]

I've never been called by any poll... So I'm sure I'd offset whatever difference you'd make, Phil.

[Erc]

So Quinnipiac polling will have a slight bias towards people who weren't drafted those years they didn't mix the draft lottery balls correctly.  Well, that would, statistically speaking, give a slight Obama bias...

[Verily]

That's an odd way to choose who to talk to.

Maybe Quinnipiac has noticed some response bias in that people who pick up the phone (as opposed to letting it ring) are more likely to vote for one party or the other. It could make some sense, thinking about psychological differences between social liberals and social conservatives, for example.

[Lunar]

That's an odd way to choose who to talk to.

That's how most generic scientific surveys are done.  I don't know what's SOP in polling, but if you were doing a broader, demographic-based study, that's what you would ask.  At least that's what I learned in school is the SOP...

[Torie]

Your mom is voting for Obama? What an FF.

Seriously though, I would have just lied.

That is not what Phil implied. The advantage to Obama is that his  mother would not  be home to take the call back, and the pollster moves on to some white Republican who is voting for Obama (assuming the pollster weights).

[Keystone Phil]

Your mom is voting for Obama? What an FF.

Hahaha, no, no, no. I meant it would be a bit more favorable to Obama because they might not call back.

Anyway, they did call back. It was the usual stuff but here's some food for thought...

My Mom told the pollster how she felt about the candidates, the issues (they asked for her top issue. She said terrorism) and basic background stuff (how often she votes, if she voted for Bush, etc.) but my Mom only said she hesitated three times - when they asked for her party registration, her income and her ideology (she first told me she "lied" about her ideology and then quickly corrected herself, saying that she really can "see the grey areas" on the issues so she claims to be a moderate).

Apparently, my Mom wasn't totally aware that it was an independent pollster and thought that they might be calling on behalf of a campaign. She then felt the need to tell me that the pollster was a black woman. Interesting...

[Eraserhead]

Your mom is voting for Obama? What an FF.

Seriously though, I would have just lied.

That is not what Phil implied. The advantage to Obama is that his  mother would not  be home to take the call back, and the pollster moves on to some white Republican who is voting for Obama (assuming the pollster weights).

Gotcha

[MarkWarner08]

That's an odd way to choose who to talk to.

It's the same methodology that the University of Michigan Survey Research Center uses for its polls. The main difference, of course, is that UM's polls are conducted face-to-face, rather than over the phone.

[Sam Spade]

That's an odd way to choose who to talk to.

It's the same methodology that the University of Michigan Survey Research Center uses for its polls. The main difference, of course, is that UM's polls are conducted face-to-face, rather than over the phone.

Well, it's a method I'm not familiar with.  Maybe I'm just strange. 

Interesting point Phil made though.

[Lunar]

Lunar imagines that it might not be a good idea to use an obviously black woman to interview Pennsylvanians.

The big Q has always had its probs though.

[© tweed]

She then felt the need to tell me that the pollster was a black woman. Interesting...

PA = safe McCain

[Keystone Phil]

She then felt the need to tell me that the pollster was a black woman. Interesting...

PA = safe McCain

Right. That's exactly what I was arguing.

Just give me a ring when you guys have anything else.

[Lunar]

I mean, Phil has anecdotal evidence that is amusing but not invaluable.

I mean, me, on the other side of the isle, has two parents that have voted for every Republican president in the last 20 years, but both of the, independently, have decided to vote Democratic without a single word from me to try and influence them.  My Dad was a *HUGE* McCain fan a few years ago, I remember him rambling about how he thought McCain was the perfect politician for the everyday guy a few years ago...  To be honest, I've never met anyone so specifically pro McCain, but his mind changed.  My Mom doesn't follow politics but she's a librarian (Masters in "Library Science" whatever that means, besides higher pay ) and everyone at her work decided to vote against Palin for her censorship or what have you and my Mom joined along.

Does that mean anything?  Nope.

But Phil does point out that it was weird for the big Q to use an obviously African-American to interview... Q should be smarter than that.  A neutral or leaning-white voice is best for accuracy in Pennsylvania I would imagine.

[Nutmeg]

Wait, you actually wanted to talk to a pollster?  I'd gladly switch phone numbers with you.

[© tweed]

She then felt the need to tell me that the pollster was a black woman. Interesting...

PA = safe McCain

Right. That's exactly what I was arguing.

Just give me a ring when you guys have anything else.

dude, chill.  I was being silly

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I got a survey like this once (though it was a marketing research thing, not political.) I lied and said my birthday was next, though that was because I knew no one else in the house would be interested in taking the poll anyway. Which I guess might've skewed the sample, but oh well, that happens for most pollsters.