Slovenian Parliamentary election, 2008

[Verily]

The election is tomorrow (today in Europe).

There are two major political parties which are neck-and-neck, the Social Democrats (SD), a leftist party, and the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), a socially conservative party. SDS is currently in government in coalition with the two Christian parties (previously a single party which split) and the Slovenian Nationalists (SNS). The two are essentially tied in the polls at just over 30% each.

Also in opposition are the two splinter groups of the once-dominant Liberal Democracy (LDS), a liberal and social-liberal party which governed from independence until 2004. After the 2004 elections, LDS fell into second place, and the left-leaning wing of the party split off as Zares. Some members also joined SD. Zares and LDS are polling in third and fourth place with about 11% and 8%, respectively, and may end up holding the balance of power.

Also significant is the pensioners' party, DeSUS, which has on occasion polled ahead of LDS.

A splinter between two factions in the Christian party, NSi, may prevent both groups from entering Parliament, which would make it difficult for SDS to hold on to power.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls:



Seats:



Conservative government is defeated.

A left-liberal coalition of SD-ZARES-LDS has 46 of 90 seats.

[Hash]

Results here:
http://volitve.gov.si/dz2008/en/rezultati/rezultati_slo.html

So far, with 8.33% reporting
SD 34.81
SDS 26.22
Zares 10.57
Pensioners 7.37
LDS 6.62
SLS-SMS 4.56
SNS 3.79
NSi 2.97
Lipa 1.3

[Verily]

FTR, it's really weird that SLS and SMS are running a joint list. SLS is a mainline Christian Democratic party and a member of the EPP; SMS is a social-liberal environmentalist party and a member of the European Greens.

[Hash]

FTR, it's really weird that SLS and SMS are running a joint list. SLS is a mainline Christian Democratic party and a member of the EPP; SMS is a social-liberal environmentalist party and a member of the European Greens.

SLS ran with NSi one year. Not sure if it was in '04 or earlier. SLS-SMS is a strange combo.

[Bono]

Tragic.

[Hash]

Results here:
http://volitve.gov.si/dz2008/en/rezultati/rezultati_slo.html

So far, with 8.33% reporting
SD 34.81
SDS 26.22
Zares 10.57
Pensioners 7.37
LDS 6.62
SLS-SMS 4.56
SNS 3.79
NSi 2.97
Lipa 1.3

So far, with 78.12% reporting
SD 30 (29 seats)
SDS 29.5 (28)
Zares 9.40 (9)
Pensioners 7.52 (7)
SNS 5.53 (5)
LDS 5.39 (5)
SLS-SMS 5.24 (5)
NSi 3.26
Lipa 1.82

[Verily]

And the above numbers appear to be the final result. I'm not sure what coalitions are likely; SD-Zares is obvious, but where they'll get the last seven is less clear. DeSUS would probably be amenable, as would the Hungarian and Italian representatives, probably LDS (but not certainly), and almost certainly the SMS members of the SLS-SMS list. Maybe the SLS people, too.

[GMantis]

SLS was part of the last coalition and is a right wing Christian democratic party, so their joining a coalition is unlikely. Pensioners' parties like DeSUS usually prefer to be part of a ruling coalition, so they'll probably join in. LDS seems to be closer to SD than to SDS, considering many of their members defected to the SD, so they'll probably be the fourth member of the coalition, bringing the coalition to 50.