ITSA ZOGBY! (The official trash can for Zogby Polls)

[A18]

There is some mathematical debate about if weighting a sample to look like a random sample is actually the same thing as an actual random sample.

With respect to weighting, is there really any principled basis for assuming that X characteristics "matter," but Y characteristics do not?

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I remain hopeful, meanwhile, that polling will die out entirely--which is not to say that I'm counting on it.

Curious. What do you think about YouGov?

[Lunar]

I think the only way to determine if X characteristics matter is if they correlate strongly with the Obama-McCain decision and correlate loosely-to-none with the other variables that the sample is weighed by.  It might not matter if you weight by church attendance if you already weigh by Party ID, for example.

I'm not sure how you choose between correlated statistics (church attendance and party ID), I assume a good pollster would choose the one that is more heavily correlated to weigh by, but I don't think most pollsters are good pollsters.

[cinyc]

Does anyone want some random numbers that the idiots on TV will start citing soon?  Here's the latest ZI numbers, along with others today.



Let's just forget legitimacy, let's just get a bunch of numbers out there.

McCain is leading in Florida by 10.3 points, Nevada by 7.6, and Virginia by 6.5.  Sure.

Funny.  Every poll not by Zogby Interactive on your list at least sounds plausible.  Every poll by Zogby Interactive looks like crap.  

Itsa Zogby, all right!  For entertainment purposes, only.

[Lunar]

What, you're trying to say that Obama might not be up in Nort Carolina but down over 10% in Floridia and down 8% in Nevada and 7% in Virginia?

[J. J.]

When I start seeing real polls of PA, I'll look.

[The Vorlon]

Does anyone want some random numbers that the idiots on TV will start citing soon?  Here's the latest ZI numbers, along with others today.



Let's just forget legitimacy, let's just get a bunch of numbers out there.

McCain is leading in Florida by 10.3 points, Nevada by 7.6, and Virginia by 6.5.  Sure.

Funny.  Every poll not by Zogby Interactive on your list at least sounds plausible.  Every poll by Zogby Interactive looks like crap.  

Itsa Zogby, all right!  For entertainment purposes, only.

These Zogby's are crap, even by his standards... which is hard to go..

McCain up 4 in Pennsylvania... sure... let's go with that....