CO: Insider Advantage: Obama with small lead in CO

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Colorado President by Insider Advantage on 2008-09-11

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

[Aizen]

^yep

hey republicans

take ohio
take florida
take virginia

but without colorado you will (probably) not be winning. and you'll only take colorado over my dead body. although to be fair this poll from a crap company is useless.

[Person Man]

Fuc k yeah....but its consistent. I bet CO is D+3 right now over the NA.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + either New Mexico or Nevada = 273 EV victory

[auburntiger]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

[Rowan]

We already had threads for all of these IA polls, why were new ones created?

[Person Man]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

[Keystone Phil]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Campaign is over. Election is tomorrow. Go home, guys.

[Person Man]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Campaign is over. Election is tomorrow. Go home, guys.

No. Seriously. If you are ahead 2 points nationally and are 3 points behind in Colorado...what makes you think you can take it without breaking 300 EVs...Michigan will fall before Colorado to the Goppers.

[Sbane]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Campaign is over. Election is tomorrow. Go home, guys.

No. Seriously. If you are ahead 2 points nationally and are 3 points behind in Colorado...what makes you think you can take it without breaking 300 EVs...Michigan will fall before Colorado to the Goppers.

You really think that is true? I think CO might very well be the closest state if its a 50-50 election. I am guessing the DNC bounce was highest in CO but it will eventually fade. I mean don't the republicans still have a registration advantage in the state?

[Keystone Phil]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Campaign is over. Election is tomorrow. Go home, guys.

No. Seriously. If you are ahead 2 points nationally and are 3 points behind in Colorado...what makes you think you can take it without breaking 300 EVs...Michigan will fall before Colorado to the Goppers.

Things change. I know how that may seem too simplistic to some but that's the way it is.

[auburntiger]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

It's still within the margin of error, and an October surprise...like there always is. I have been saying for a while that whoever wins Colorado wins the election. Ohio and Florida will both go to McCain.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Colorado polls routinely show the state within one, two, or three points.  The good news for McCain is that he does well among the independent voters (who make up a good portion of undecideds), and that Republican GOTV efforts helped them outperform the polls in 2004.

And McCain can win this without Colorado—New Mexico instead of Colorado results in a tidy 270–268 win for McCain, given the current map.

[Person Man]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Colorado polls routinely show the state within one, two, or three points.  The good news for McCain is that he does well among the independent voters (who make up a good portion of undecideds), and that Republican GOTV efforts helped them outperform the polls in 2004.

And McCain can win this without Colorado—New Mexico instead of Colorado results in a tidy 270–268 win for McCain, given the current map.

Maybe. Maybe not. New Mexico seems to be a bit of a stretch, but it is possible without Colorado.

[Aizen]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Colorado polls routinely show the state within one, two, or three points.  The good news for McCain is that he does well among the independent voters (who make up a good portion of undecideds), and that Republican GOTV efforts helped them outperform the polls in 2004.

Kerry outperformed the polls in 2004. The undecideds swung more towards Kerry than to Bush. Polls showed Bush having an average of 7-8 points up over Kerry. He won by 4.5. The Colorado GOP has been collapsing so I doubt the GOTV will be as good as it used to be. On the bright side for McCain, he and Palin drew out 10,000 fundies in Colorado Springs the other day.

[Rowan]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Colorado polls routinely show the state within one, two, or three points.  The good news for McCain is that he does well among the independent voters (who make up a good portion of undecideds), and that Republican GOTV efforts helped them outperform the polls in 2004.

Kerry outperformed the polls in 2004. The undecideds swung more towards Kerry than to Bush. Polls showed Bush having an average of 7-8 points up over Kerry. He won by 4.5. The Colorado GOP has been collapsing so I doubt the GOTV will be as good as it used to be. On the bright side for McCain, he and Palin drew out 10,000 fundies in Colorado Springs the other day.

What polls are you referring to? The final polls from CO in 2004:

SUSA- Bush +3
Zogby-Bush +2
MD- Bush +7
POS- Bush +9
Fairbank Maslin- Tie
Rasmussen- Bush +5

So yes the final polls did have Bush up, but not by the 7-8 point average that you suggest.

[Aizen]

Hey McCain fans... you're not winning this thing w/out Colorado. 

There's still 7 weeks.

If you can't get Colorado now, why do you think you will then?

Colorado polls routinely show the state within one, two, or three points.  The good news for McCain is that he does well among the independent voters (who make up a good portion of undecideds), and that Republican GOTV efforts helped them outperform the polls in 2004.

Kerry outperformed the polls in 2004. The undecideds swung more towards Kerry than to Bush. Polls showed Bush having an average of 7-8 points up over Kerry. He won by 4.5. The Colorado GOP has been collapsing so I doubt the GOTV will be as good as it used to be. On the bright side for McCain, he and Palin drew out 10,000 fundies in Colorado Springs the other day.

What polls are you referring to? The final polls from CO in 2004:

SUSA- Bush +3
Zogby-Bush +2
MD- Bush +7
POS- Bush +9
Fairbank Maslin- Tie
Rasmussen- Bush +5

So yes the final polls did have Bush up, but not by the 7-8 point average that you suggest.

I was just going by the polls on this site for 2004. The last 10 were

Survey USA B +6
Mason-Dixon B +7
Public Opinion Strategies B +9
Survey USA B +7
Ciruli Associates B +6
Rasmussen B +5
Gallup B +6
Mason-Dixon B +6
Public Opinion Strategies B +5
Survey USA B +8


The average on this site says 7, I guess it's more like +6 when looking at the last 10.


Colorado wasn't really a swing state in 2004. It was a swing state in the same way Missouri is a swing state now.


But uh, my point still stands.

[Person Man]

So, unless the fundies light themselves on fire, they probably are going to fall short on election day. I would say that if they do poorly enough and Colorado keeps up its trend (that it has been going through since the 70s, but was disrupted by the great fundie migrations of the 90s), Colorado will be as blue as Minnesota or Oregon by 2012.