Will McCain get a bounce out of the convention? If so, how much of one?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

538's analysis was that Palin's speech boosted the bases of BOTH sides, which in the current environment is not good for McCain.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tomorrow McCain should get a big bounce in the tracking polls. If he isn't leading by at least 5 points tomorrow in both Gallup and Rasmussen, he's boned... to say the least.

tee hee

[Rococo4]

Tomorrow McCain should get a big bounce in the tracking polls. If he isn't leading by at least 5 points tomorrow in both Gallup and Rasmussen, he's boned... to say the least.

they know nothing more than any of us.

[Eraserhead]

At some point over the next week, +4 over Obama.

As in four points ahead of him?

Yes, at some point.  You have to remember, going into the convention cycle, Obama was slightly down.  The convention was "okay," but nothing to right home about.  It left me disappointed. 

I didn't expect much from the RNC convention.  Some of what I saw was generally better than I expected.  Giuliani did a good speech.  Palin blew it away; she killed.  The Democrats are having Palin panic.

The DNC was not aimed toward hardcore Republicans, so the fact that you didn't like it doesn't mean much of anything. In fact, I'm sure you decided that you wouldn't like it before you watched it.

Secondly, Obama was not down in the average of polls going into the convention cycle. He was up by about two points.

[Tender Branson]

I think we can agree that Obama is currently ahead by 2-3%. Next weekend he should be up by 5-7%, which would be a 3-4% bounce. After the GOP convention, the race should stabilise where it is right now, at about a 2-3% advantage for Obama.

[J. J.]

The DNC was not aimed toward hardcore Republicans, so the fact that you didn't like it doesn't mean much of anything. In fact, I'm sure you decided that you wouldn't like it before you watched it.

No, it was aimed at hardcore Democrats, and didn't really do anything to appeal to anyone else (as I said at the time).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sorry, they were declining until the DNC:

Wednesday - August 27, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (NC, NC)


Tuesday - August 26, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -2)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (+2, +1)



Monday - August 25, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (-1, nc)


Sunday - August 24, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (+1, -1)