Could Obama be the first Democrat to crack the 50% pV mark since Carter in 1976?

[phk]

Since 1968, the Democrats have only cracked the 50% mark once in 1976 with Carter's re-election. Bill Clinton fell short in 1996 but was very close and could have done it had turnout not been so bad.

Comparatively however the Republicans cracked over 50% in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2004, nearly 4 times compared to the Democrats just once in 1976.

Could Obama be the first Democrat to win the majority of the popular vote for 40 years (assuming he wins)?

[Mr. Morden]

Yes.

[Horus]

Absolutely, and I think he will

[Associate Justice PiT]

     To be honest, I would be surprised if he weren't.

[Mr.Jones]

Probably he will. But he will have to really keep on campaigning hard till the last day. He has to start some new ads or do something like that to actually get the voters out from the couch and go and vote.

[pragmatic liberal]

Clinton would have gotten a majority in '96 if Perot hadn't run. And he probably would have gotten a majority in '92 too if Perot hadn't re-entered the race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think we will break 50%, but I also think he will lose

Obama 50.22%
McCain 49.14%
Others .76%

Barr will be lucky to get .5% and Nader to get .2%

[Person Man]

I think we will break 50%, but I also think he will lose

Obama 50.22%
McCain 49.14%
Others .76%

Barr will be lucky to get .5% and Nader to get .2%

If that happened, a lot of people would just be pissed as hell. That would throw the gas on the fire if nothing else would.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama also has an excellent chance at becoming just the 4th Democrat in US history to crack 51% of the popular vote (after Jackson, FDR, and LBJ).  A few others made it into the 50-51% range, but I think those are the only Democrats who ever broke 51%.

Apparently, the winning strategy for post-WWII Dems is to make sure your opponent is a senator from Arizona.  Maybe Obama should try to get John Kyl to run against him in 2012.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Right now, I see this:
Obama: 51
McCain: 48
Others: 1

So, yes.

[Ronnie]

52.0 - 46.5 - 1.5

Yes

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The signs do indeed point to Mecca. In other words for those that are confused, I believe that Barack Obama will become the first Democrat to break the fifty percent mark in the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Though I highly doubt that Obama will break more than the fifty-two percent mark, its possible that Obama might, especially since the rapid implosion of the McCain campaign in late September (yes, I'm joining that bandwagon as well).