GOTV - the ignored subject on the forum

[Lunar]

Those weren't all caucuses, were they?  And the same GOTV efforts that work in caucuses can be successfully applied to other segments of the population for the general.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry Lunar, but polling in primaries is very difficult, and far less accurate than general elections.  Just ask Sam (and Vorlon, if he is available).

The standard I used, was whether Obama performed better in caucuses or primaries, and the simple answer is that he performed better in caucuses.

Also, you really should check your list, neither Iowa nor Nevada were primary states.

[Lunar]

I clearly included all states until Oregon.  They're in chronological order.

I understand that polling is different in primaries.  That's obvious because you need a far tighter turnout screen.

But how can you possibly assert that Obama has no GOTV operation?  On what basis?  The amount of voter information being collected, the amount of field offices out there, the amount of volunteers doing their thing, etc. are staggering.

[CARLHAYDEN]

A real GOTV operation requires a great deal of time, training and organization.

If you want a couple of examples of how it should be done, you can look at the Republican effort in 2004 in Ohio, and the Democrat effort in 2000 in Pennsylvania.

Neither Obama nor McCain has such an effort at this time.

The Obama "field offices" are largely psychological (symbolic) and to coordinate with other candidates, not a GOTV effort.

As to collecting data, the Obama people probably imagine that a series of mailings will stimulate the vote (probably not a significant impact).  That is NOT a real GOTV effort.

[MarkWarner08]

A real GOTV operation requires a great deal of time, training and organization.

If you want a couple of examples of how it should be done, you can look at the Republican effort in 2004 in Ohio, and the Democrat effort in 2000 in Pennsylvania.

Neither Obama nor McCain has such an effort at this time.

The Obama "field offices" are largely psychological (symbolic) and to coordinate with other candidates, not a GOTV effort.

As to collecting data, the Obama people probably imagine that a series of mailings will stimulate the vote (probably not a significant impact).  That is NOT a real GOTV effort.

How was the Randy Graf GOTV effort?

[CARLHAYDEN]

A real GOTV operation requires a great deal of time, training and organization.

If you want a couple of examples of how it should be done, you can look at the Republican effort in 2004 in Ohio, and the Democrat effort in 2000 in Pennsylvania.

Neither Obama nor McCain has such an effort at this time.

The Obama "field offices" are largely psychological (symbolic) and to coordinate with other candidates, not a GOTV effort.

As to collecting data, the Obama people probably imagine that a series of mailings will stimulate the vote (probably not a significant impact).  That is NOT a real GOTV effort.

How was the Randy Graf GOTV effort?

He had none in the general election in 2006!

[Sam Spade]

I understand that polling is different in primaries.  That's obvious because you need a far tighter turnout screen.

Actually, a far looser voter screen tends to work better in primaries, odd as this may sound.

[MarkWarner08]

A real GOTV operation requires a great deal of time, training and organization.

If you want a couple of examples of how it should be done, you can look at the Republican effort in 2004 in Ohio, and the Democrat effort in 2000 in Pennsylvania.

Neither Obama nor McCain has such an effort at this time.

The Obama "field offices" are largely psychological (symbolic) and to coordinate with other candidates, not a GOTV effort.

As to collecting data, the Obama people probably imagine that a series of mailings will stimulate the vote (probably not a significant impact).  That is NOT a real GOTV effort.

How was the Randy Graf GOTV effort?

He had none in the general election in 2006!

Interesting. Did he abandon his primary GOTV efforts?

[Alcon]

I understand that polling is different in primaries.  That's obvious because you need a far tighter turnout screen.

Actually, a far looser voter screen tends to work better in primaries, odd as this may sound.

Whyzat?

[CARLHAYDEN]

A real GOTV operation requires a great deal of time, training and organization.

If you want a couple of examples of how it should be done, you can look at the Republican effort in 2004 in Ohio, and the Democrat effort in 2000 in Pennsylvania.

Neither Obama nor McCain has such an effort at this time.

The Obama "field offices" are largely psychological (symbolic) and to coordinate with other candidates, not a GOTV effort.

As to collecting data, the Obama people probably imagine that a series of mailings will stimulate the vote (probably not a significant impact).  That is NOT a real GOTV effort.

How was the Randy Graf GOTV effort?

He had none in the general election in 2006!

Interesting. Did he abandon his primary GOTV efforts?

He didn't have the time/money to organize and implement such an effort in the general election.

[Sam Spade]

I understand that polling is different in primaries.  That's obvious because you need a far tighter turnout screen.

Actually, a far looser voter screen tends to work better in primaries, odd as this may sound.

Whyzat?

Primary results, I'm sure we would admit, are largely based on enthusiasm.  

Which means, generally, that they are hard to model - in other words we can make guesses as to what the electorate looks like based on past primaries, but in general those assumptions tend to be wrong.  

Also, since these elections tend have less participants who are typically more attuned to the political game, we typically see less blind partisan voting, or in a primary specifically, more random voting.

As such, the pollsters that should typically function the best are those who throw the assumptions out the window and gauge voter interest based on who actually responds to the phone call, as opposed to some silly LV screen or model.  After all, people who don't know that there's an election going on are less likely to respond to a phone call or answer questions.

Or at least - this is my rationale in terms of primaries.  I'm sure you will disagree.  

[Alcon]

I don't, actually.  How can I trust you now that you were so wrong about my disagreeing? 

[Sam Spade]

I don't, actually.  How can I trust you now that you were so wrong about my disagreeing? 

I think it's just a force of habit on this forum when I comment to Obama supporters, sorry.. 

[Alcon]

I don't, actually.  How can I trust you now that you were so wrong about my disagreeing? 

I think it's just a force of habit on this forum when I comment to Obama supporters, sorry.. 

And I'm an Obama supporter now, too?

And you would've been doing so well if you had just stopped with the answer to my question

[Sam Spade]

I don't, actually.  How can I trust you now that you were so wrong about my disagreeing? 

I think it's just a force of habit on this forum when I comment to Obama supporters, sorry.. 

And I'm an Obama supporter now, too?

And you would've been doing so well if you had just stopped with the answer to my question

I can see how my comment could have been read that way.  It should read:

I think it's just a force of habit on this forum when I comment to other posters who are Obama supporters (which is not present company). 

Alright, I'll stop now.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans seemed to be far better at GOTV from 1992 through 2004, with the exception of 1998 and 2000.  Republicans seemed to win all but a few of the closest House and Senate races in that period.  I think part of the reason for this is that Republicans did a better job at using resources like the NRA and the Religious Right to get out the vote.  

[Lunar]

I really just post these threads to try and spark some kind of reasonable discussion of issues interesting to me, not really because I believe everything I write.  Samspade's original post is probably the sharpest and my follow-up question is what states have the most potential room for margin improvement?

Is it Virginia, where we recently learned that two thirds of this year's two hundred thousand new voters are under 35, or other states that have never really been competitive in years past?