Why Obama is competing in Florida...

[Brittain33]

...even though Bush won it by 5 points in 2004 and demographically the state was more Hillary than Barack.

The economy's in the crapper, hit hard by the construction bust and speculation. The exurbs are hurting. People who voted Republican most fervently are among those who are most worst off after four years. Does this mean that the people here are representative of voters across the state and will support Obama? Not necessarily. Does it make the state more volatile than places like the Deep South? Absolutely. Things can happen.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-exurbs12-2008aug12,0,6209867.story

[Sam Spade]

Oh, I think Obama should be competing in Florida, don't get me wrong (from reading the other thread).  Similarly, McCain should be competing in the upper midwest.  I just wouldn't sacrifice money there that should go to other places (i.e. Ohio, Colorado, etc.) like certain Democratic campaigns did in 2000 and 2004.

Of course, the LA Times has one of these types of stories every few weeks, so caveat emptor.  I do suspect Obama will perform better than Kerry in exurbs, but this probably has more to do with a decline in enthusiasm if anything.  Same as you can expect McCain to perform better than Bush vis-a-vis national average in older-line suburbs, especially those with ethnic white voters.

[Brittain33]

Of course, the LA Times has one of these types of stories every few weeks, so caveat emptor.  I do suspect Obama will perform better than Kerry in exurbs, but this probably has more to do with a decline in enthusiasm if anything. 

Makes sense to me. I doubt Obama picks up more than a few votes in places like this, but not having the massive turnout Bush got would help him.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I guess the same reason why McCain is running ads in IA.

[WalterMitty]

I guess the same reason why McCain is running ads in IA.

uh.  iowa was a bush state just four years ago.

(and i still think iowa will be much closer than the experts think, as lee corso might say)

[Sam Spade]

Obama is running ads in IA.  Iowa leans Dem but ain't gonna be no blowout unless the national election is a blowout.

[WalterMitty]

  Iowa leans Dem but ain't gonna be no blowout unless the national election is a blowout.

havent you received the news from the obama supporters, spade?

iowa is full of white liberals! 


where those liberals were in november of 2004 hasnt been revealed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

where those liberals were in november of 2004 hasnt been revealed.

They were in Britain and writing amusing-yet-curiously-informative travel literature.

[afleitch]

where those liberals were in november of 2004 hasnt been revealed.

They were in Britain and writing amusing-yet-curiously-informative travel literature.

It's a Small Island, Al

[Stranger in a strange land]

It makes sense for him to compete in Florida: while the state is demographically horrible for him, he hasn't been polling that badly there. While I can definitely see Obama winning the EC without Florida, I have a very hard time seeing McCain being able to.

[Lunar]

My theory is that Obama is hoping that for every three dollars he spends in Florida, McCain or the RNC will be forced to spend a dollar or more defending it.  Florida is an expensive state to compete in.  Obama will  be able to fully saturation Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado and every dollar he spends in these states after a certain point yields a very low amount of utility.  It might be more effective to spend money elsewhere to deny McCain a smaller amount of money where it counts.

It also makes Obama look strong and doesn't make him look like he is giving up on the Jewish , Southerm or elderly vote.  The worse Obama is doing in the polling in Florida, the more Bill O'Reilly & Co. will argue that he's weak electorally.

[memphis]

Florida is going to be a reach for Obama, but it's no GOP lock and its a HUGE electoral prize. Nobody's going to ignore FL (or PA, MI, OH...) Such is the design of the Electoral College.