MT: Rasmussen: It's all tied up.

[Flying Dog]

New Poll: Montana President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-29

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Flying Dog]

McCain leads 45-44 w/out leaners.

[elcorazon]

New Poll: Montana President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-29

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

McCain's got this state all wrapped up.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow.

[Verily]

Wow.

It's actually a decline from Obama leading by five in Ras's last poll of Montana, but that came right on the heels of his visit to the state.

Also, the poll was misentered as being from August

[Vsanto5]

Wow isn't this poll like the rest of the population?  The first half +5 the second half 0-/+ .  This is not good for McCain as I though as well he had this state in the bag.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I can't say I'm not impressed by this.

[Lief 🗽]

IN BEFORE AHDUKE:

MT IS SOLID R STOP BEING HACKS IF I SAID THAT MASSACHUSETTS WOULD BE CLOSE YOU LIBERALS WOULD CRUCIFY ME

[Flying Dog]

IN BEFORE AHDUKE:

MT IS SOLID R STOP BEING HACKS IF I SAID THAT MASSACHUSETTS WOULD BE CLOSE YOU LIBERALS WOULD CRUCIFY ME

lol, that does sound a lot like he would say.

[Aizen]

This really sucks. Obama has dropped 5 points here.

[Alcon]

The last poll was taken just after he had visited, and was probably an outlier anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

[Gustaf]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

[Verily]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

Give an example of a poll, any poll, from within the past week and a half, say, that shows McCain at a better position than Bush's final result in 2004 in any state whatsoever. Of course, context is everything in these sorts of things, and it doesn't mean much, but as an academic point he's right. The last poll to show McCain at a better position than Bush anywhere was Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on 21 July; before that, the last one was some time before 14 July (as that's as far back as our polling database goes in directly listing all polls in order).

[Gustaf]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

Give an example of a poll, any poll, from within the past week and a half, say, that shows McCain at a better position than Bush's final result in 2004 in any state whatsoever. Of course, context is everything in these sorts of things, and it doesn't mean much, but as an academic point he's right. The last poll to show McCain at a better position than Bush anywhere was Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on 21 July; before that, the last one was some time before 14 July (as that's as far back as our polling database goes in directly listing all polls in order).

Lol. It is probably true that McCain's support in a poll which lists undecideds is not higher than the pecentage of total votes recieved by Bush on election day, yes. It is also true that McCain wil receieve fewer votes than there are stars in the universe. Sadly, none of these facts have much relevance.

[Sam Spade]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Altogether, they translate into about an Obama 2% lead, I suspect.  I'll put it together sometime in a week or so to make sure.

[Alcon]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Altogether, they translate into about an Obama 2% lead, I suspect.  I'll put it together sometime in a week or so to make sure.

I did.  It's about Obama +2.5-3.

[Sam Spade]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Altogether, they translate into about an Obama 2% lead, I suspect.  I'll put it together sometime in a week or so to make sure.

I did.  It's about Obama +2.5-3.

I'll do my own tonight (as the end of the month assignment) - but that also sounds reasonable.  Even though I'm leery of one-day polling during the summer, Rasmussen gives us enough polls to where the clear outliers can be balanced out.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Link to date with corrected poll and numbers: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3020080729016

[Sam Spade]

For Alcon - I just did a runthrough and it comes to Obama +2.92%.  I think this is slightly overfavoring him right based on the outliers, the polls before July 4th, and the less polled states, so I suspect it's closer to 2.5% than 3.0%, actually, but good call.

[Gustaf]

For Alcon - I just did a runthrough and it comes to Obama +2.92%.  I think this is slightly overfavoring him right based on the outliers, the polls before July 4th, and the less polled states, so I suspect it's closer to 2.5% than 3.0%, actually, but good call.

Based on what, Rasmussen? I have Obama by 2.91% based on Rasmussen state polls. If one includes the non-polled states with the 2004 breakdown it gets to 2.14%, though that's obviously too favourable an assumption for McCain.

[minionofmidas]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

Give an example of a poll, any poll, from within the past week and a half, say, that shows McCain at a better position than Bush's final result in 2004 in any state whatsoever. Of course, context is everything in these sorts of things, and it doesn't mean much, but as an academic point he's right. The last poll to show McCain at a better position than Bush anywhere was Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on 21 July; before that, the last one was some time before 14 July (as that's as far back as our polling database goes in directly listing all polls in order).

I did ask myself that a while ago, but based in on 538's numbers at the time. McCain is doing somewhat better than Bush did in a couple of northeastern states (New York, Massachusetts), and a couple of south central states (Kentucky, Tennessee). Obama's biggest improvements, ironically, come in states where even these improvements are not enough to sway the state - Montana and possibly ND the exceptions in that respect, but really the swings aren't much different from those in Idaho or Nebraska or Utah.

[minionofmidas]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

Give an example of a poll, any poll, from within the past week and a half, say, that shows McCain at a better position than Bush's final result in 2004 in any state whatsoever. Of course, context is everything in these sorts of things, and it doesn't mean much, but as an academic point he's right. The last poll to show McCain at a better position than Bush anywhere was Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on 21 July; before that, the last one was some time before 14 July (as that's as far back as our polling database goes in directly listing all polls in order).

[Sam Spade]

Given all these recent polls, I can`t believe the race right now is tied nationally. McCain is actually doing nowhere better than Bush on Election Day 2004, with the exception of maybe Arizona, Arkansas and Lousiana.

Wrong.

Give an example of a poll, any poll, from within the past week and a half, say, that shows McCain at a better position than Bush's final result in 2004 in any state whatsoever. Of course, context is everything in these sorts of things, and it doesn't mean much, but as an academic point he's right. The last poll to show McCain at a better position than Bush anywhere was Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on 21 July; before that, the last one was some time before 14 July (as that's as far back as our polling database goes in directly listing all polls in order).

I did ask myself that a while ago, but based in on 538's numbers at the time. McCain is doing somewhat better than Bush did in a couple of northeastern states (New York, Massachusetts), and a couple of south central states (Kentucky, Tennessee). Obama's biggest improvements, ironically, come in states where even these improvements are not enough to sway the state - Montana and possibly ND the exceptions in that respect, but really the swings aren't much different from those in Idaho or Nebraska or Utah.

Considering the type of candidates McCain and Obama are, that is not particularly surprising to me, personally.