BushOklahoma's 2008 Electoral Map as of Sunday, July 27, 2008 -- 12:00 am CDT

[Joe Biden 2020]

274-264 McCain wins.

I toyed with giving Michigan to Obama and Nevada to Obama, but that came out a 269-269 tie.  Since I do not see the 111th House picking our 44th President, I decided to give Michigan back to Obama and Nevada back to McCain.

This prediction could change between now and the night of Monday, November 3, 2008 at 11:59 PM EDT.

Give me your constructive and analytical responses and I will take those into account when I do another update here around August 10 or so.

[exopolitician]

I still think Obama will barely take Colorado. Hes been ahead for awhile...and even at his worst it should be a tossup just because of one poll having McCain head by....2?

but yeah thats the only thing that should be different. MAYBE Ohio/Virginia.

[Flying Dog]

It seems relatively plausible, actually. I think that's sad.

The change I would make first is Colorado. I think it's going for Obama.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It seems relatively plausible, actually. I think that's sad.

The change I would make first is Colorado. I think it's going for Obama.

Yeah, I agonized over Colorado, but I have a slight inclination that it will stay with McCain, but by the slimmest of margins and not being called until early Wednesday morning Eastern time.

I also struggled over Virginia, but I want to see many more polls there before I wrestle it out of McCain's

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think Colorado is going for Obama; he has had a fairly consistant lead there for the last few months; likewise with Ohio and Virginia, although Virginia is more of a tossup.

[??????????]

I think, overall, its a good map. Colorado is in the air but I think it has enough Republican in it for one more election cycle.

[Flying Dog]

I think, overall, its a good map. Colorado is in the air but I think hope it has enough Republican in it for one more election cycle.

Fixed.

[auburntiger]

the same old boring 2000, 2004 style map, but a good map, although different swing states make the map look that way... I guess this decade will be looked back upon as the polarizing 00's, or whatever we decide to call this decade.


in regard to the national average,

Colorado will be even with the national average.

Ohio I could see swinging a tad right, along with Florida and Michigan.

Virginia will move a couple points left, as will North Carolina. Probably Wisconsin too.

Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia will go HARD RIGHT

Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, and California will go HARD LEFT


Everything else probably won't change that much...oh in other news, McCain lanslides in Utah

[Lief 🗽]

What an incredibly pessimistic map. This is basically a worst case scenario for Obama.

[Lunar]

1) You indicate in your first post that you edited what your initial prediction was just because the electoral totals didn't "feel right" - like, you wanted McCain to have a slight win so you intentionally modified the results.  Most forumites do the opposite, their ideology creates their prediction.  How many non-McCain supporters think McCain will win Colorado?  0%.  Republicans?  ~50%.  I think it's about the same for Virginia with Democrats (50% believe Obama will win, 0% of Republicans).
2) It's weird to see VA less Democratic than MO.  And CO is all wrong.  Iowa, along with Minnesota, will be among McCain's worst states - Obama has decimated McCain in the polls here and has *the BEST* infrastructure in anti-war IA compared to his operations in every other state while McCain got what - fifth place?  Primary results don't equal general ones, but they can still be indicative of certain facts on the ground.

[Hash]

Explain ND.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I could have made North Dakota a little lighter shade of Blue, (probably the 50% shade), but to me that's a minor detail.

[Torie]

1) You indicate in your first post that you edited what your initial prediction was just because the electoral totals didn't "feel right" - like, you wanted McCain to have a slight win so you intentionally modified the results.  Most forumites do the opposite, their ideology creates their prediction.  How many non-McCain supporters think McCain will win Colorado?  0%.  Republicans?  ~50%.  I think it's about the same for Virginia with Democrats (50% believe Obama will win, 0% of Republicans).
2) It's weird to see VA less Democratic than MO.  And CO is all wrong.  Iowa, along with Minnesota, will be among McCain's worst states - Obama has decimated McCain in the polls here and has *the BEST* infrastructure in anti-war IA compared to his operations in every other state while McCain got what - fifth place?  Primary results don't equal general ones, but they can still be indicative of certain facts on the ground.

Well wait a minute. All I do is swings from the national average. I have no idea how the election nationally will turn out, although the odds are at least 60% I think that Obama will win the popular vote. The bell curve however is pretty flat, with fat tails. If the election were held today, Obama would probably carry Virginia and Colorado.  Iowa and Minnesota will not be among McCain's worst states however, certainly not Iowa. But at the moment, Obama would carry both easily.

[Lunar]

Ooops, I meant "worst 'swing states'"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Other than that Quinnipiac from the really odd looking batch, McCain hasn't led in a single poll in Colorado other than a joke one way back in April.