Where does McCain (vs.Obama) have a Structural Advantage over Bush (vs. Kerry)?

[Lunar]

Title question.

My thinking is that Obama has a structural advantage in almost everywhere that matters except Florida with possible question marks in the Rustbelt (I think it's about the same as '04), Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Upper Midwest

Polling shows Obama extremely competitive in this region. 

In Iowa, McCain did not even effectively campaign, while Iowa was Bush's (both in 2000 and 2004) and Obama's launching off point for primary victory.

In Minnesota, McCain is not even purchasing ads.

In Wisconsin, Obama did surprisingly well given the demographics (Catholic, white, working class) and seems well placed to win the state by more than a fraction of a percent in a close election.

Edit: Indiana too, looks far better for Obama.

Pacific Coast:

McCain looks good on paper in this region due to his moderate views and pro-environmentalism, he has been polling far worse than Bush here and I don't think many people think of him as remotely competitive in Washington and only barely so in Oregon.

South:

Florida - ?  Kerry was never predicted to do very well here, but given McCain's foreign policy hawkishness (plays well with Cubans and elderly Jews) and age gap (one of the oldest states), he may have an unknown edge here.  But Obama is not being decimated in the polls.  But Florida is notoriously difficult to poll.

Obama is unquestionably going to do better than Kerry in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia.  Does anyone think otherwise?

New England:

New Hampshire may be one of the bright spots on the map for McCain.  He has been called New Hampshire's third senator and the state has been his baby as far as primaries are concerned.  His platform seems to play very well with Republicans here and they should be more excited than most states for a McCain presidency.

Kerry was from a neighboring state.

But New Hampshire is a bit more anti-war than most McCain states and I haven't seen enough polling to convince me that McCain is going to do better than Bush relative to their national percentages.  Also, the upscale whites here are the kind that Obama appeals to.

The rest of the states are merely listed here because McCain's team has put out propaganda considering them in play.  For the point of analysis, I don't think it matters if McCain can shave off a percentage in Connecticut due to Lieberman's far-reaching influence (har har har).

Rustbelt

Here's a bit question mark.

In Ohio, there is not going to be a gay marriage measure on the ballot to turn out evangelicals.  Similarly, Ohio was masterminded by Bush's team in 2004 and I'm not so sure that McCain can repeat the same strategy to victory by appealing to those same evangelicals.  Obama does seem to have trouble with downscale, working-class, white voters though.

In Pennsylvania, Obama made his famous 'bitter' comment.  Does weakness with downscale voters in the west outweigh his advantage with blacks and upscale whites in the east though?

West Virginia, eh, it's hard to do much worse than Kerry here but Obama might.

Michigan is another question mark.  A fair amount of blacks and Democratic loyalists to tap, creating a relatively high floor for Obama votes.  McCain has been leading polls here for some time and only now seems to be slipping (probably as Clinton supporters get behind Obama). 

Overall, McCain seems to be constantly highlighting his free trade credentials, while Bush didn't do such emphasizing.  Bush certainly didn't travel to Mexico, Columbia, and Canada solely to brag about how wonderful free trade has been for our country.  So I'm not ready to say that McCain has any structural/macro advantages despite Obama's elitism(?).

Southwest

My, how times have changed.

Colorado is unquestionably going to favor Obama more than it did Kerry.  The consensus on the forum, as well as the polls, seems to indicate that New Mexico shall as well.

Nevada is another question mark.  It's possible that cross-border volunteers from Arizona could make a difference, and the state has seemed to avoid the massive shift in the polls that New Mexico and Colorado have made.  On the other hand, it's a state that's notoriously difficult to poll, will have one of the worst prospective economies due to the housing crisis, and has some of the highest growth in the country in its most Democratic county, Clark County.

Elsewhere, west of the Mississippi

I do not know about Missouri.  Seems that Obama should be able to do everything Kerry did with marginal improvement due to increased African-American support.  The state has been trending slightly Republican over the years.  However, the state is not present in all but a tiny fraction of "Obama barely wins" scenarios. 

The rest of the states and NE-2 should unquestionably be structurally better for Obama, right?  Obama has made official general election campaign stops in MT and ND, and has announced intentions to visit AK and NE-2. 

[Josh/Devilman88]

looks about right.

[Aizen]

Compared with Kerry

Red = better
blue = worse
green = about the same


I would have made Michigan green but it really looks like McCain's trade policies are burying him there

[Lunar]

I wouldn't hurry to make New Hampshire red, Aizen.  Florida has an outside chance of being green too.  How was Kerry polling there summertime four years ago?  Some would argue that AL shouldn't be red, but eh, you got the gist of it.

But my follow-up point is this:  Doesn't that map look really bad for McCain?  That's only four states - and only one of those is considered a swing state (Florida) and most Democrats have discounted it (except Obama who is sticking a lot of his top minds there).  Everyone on the forum is still mostly focused on comparing Obama to Hillary as far as electoral advantages go.  Where does McCain's "strength among independents" - his primary claim for victory in the general, really take effect?  Should it not have been states like Colorado, Washington, Virginia (because of veterans) and Minnesota? 

[bgwah]

In terms of swing states, I think McCain has an advantage in Florida and Nevada. Despite Obama leading national polls, McCain is still winning most Nevada polls. It's  somewhat similar to Arizona, so McCain probably appeals to the state relatively well.

I don't see New Hampshire changing much from 2004, honestly.

[Person Man]

What I am interested in is how each state will do against the national average this year-

Here is my take on the battleground states-

Colorado-  D+1
Florida- R+8
Nevada- Zero
New Mexico- D+4
Montana- R+8
Iowa- D+5
Missouri- R+7
Ohio- Zero
Michigan- D+5
Wisconsin D+6
Pennsylvania- D+4
Virginia- R+6
New Hampshire- D+6

[Lunar]

In terms of swing states, I think McCain has an advantage in Florida and Nevada. Despite Obama leading national polls, McCain is still winning most Nevada polls. It's  somewhat similar to Arizona, so McCain probably appeals to the state relatively well.

I don't see New Hampshire changing much from 2004, honestly.

Florida, for almost any Democrat, was unlikely to be decisive, we can see how Kerry didn't really do very well there either.  That only leaves Nevada for potentially decisive electoral strength.