What is the state of the race in these districts?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MN-3, MI-7, MO-9, NV-3, LA-4, FL-21, FL-25, MD-1, and NY-26.

I don't know much about where things stand in these races, any insight would be much appreciated.

[Sam Spade]

MN-03 - Dems nominated someone too far from the left with no political experience.  GOP nominated someone too far from the right with political experience.  Given the current political environment, let's call it toss-up and leave it at that.

MI-06 - Not on my list yet.

MO-09 - Wait for the primary.  Both sides have good candidates - so naturally Republicans have the advantage because of the CD.

NV-03 - MarkWarner08 gets hot and bothered about this seat.  I believe less (or whatever).  Oh well.

LA-04 - Wait for the primary.  I really don't know yet.

FL-21/FL-25 - The Cuban seats are going to be tough to go after this year (and probably anyways).  It's not like that much has changed, yet.

MD-01 - You see, unlike MS-01 or LA-06 or maybe LA-04 (but less so), the regional conflict here hurts Republicans less because the problematic areas are historically Republican.  Let's see - it'll either be interesting or no.  Probably no.

NY-26 - Dems are fighting here (and I don't think either of them is that strong) and the GOP candidate has no opposition and a growing warchest.  Unlike anywhere else - odd.  And unlike a lot of CDs, this one is more GOP than it looks - kinda like Mahoney's CD in FL actually.

[Torie]

Thanks Spade for your micro work on this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-03 - Overall agree with Spade, but keep this in mind: If Obama wins Minnesota by what he's polling, he should win this district. So Paulsen will have to outpoll McCain to win, while running to the right of McCain.

MI-06 - Not flipping.

MO-09 - Another year of double digit gains for Dems if this one flips.

NV-03 - I just hope the DCCC spends some real money here for once. Porter's a guy who always manages to slip through because the DCCC never seriously targets him for whatever reason.

LA-04 - Isn't this northern Louisiana? GOP would have to really f**k up to lose this one.

FL-21/FL-25 - Not going to happen.

MD-01 - What Sam says is correct, but also worth noting the problematic areas are less partisan and more rural than the GOP base of this district. Probably not flipping but maybe worth looking at.

NY-26 - Reynolds was a lousy incumbent. Without him the GOP should have a fairly easy hold. With Hillary this one might be worth targeting, but that's not happening.

[Sensei]

FL-21 is my district, as ashamed as I am to be associated with the people in it. It actually might happen, the Cubans in Hialeah love Raul Martinez about as much as fat kids love cake. The guy was pretty corrupt, but he made Hialeah less of a cesspool, even though I still don't like going in there, and he's Cuban himself. He's also raising money pretty well. This has maybe a 70/30 chance of happening.

[Brittain33]

LA-04 - Isn't this northern Louisiana? GOP would have to really f**k up to lose this one.

Where have I heard that recently?

Seriously, the Democrats have a strong candidate running. Louisiana outside of LA-01 and LA-02 is open to voting for candidates of either party in an open seat situation--look at Rodney Alexander's win in '02 and how many seats have flipped since then. If there was ever a district that could take its lead from the two southern specials this spring, it's this one.

[Brittain33]

MN-03 - Dems nominated someone too far from the left with no political experience.

In what ways is Madla far-left? I know he's anti-war and associated with progressive activists, but I don't know of positions that make him more of a radical than a suburban moderate in ways that the voters on MN-03 care about. He seems to be a process radical, not a substance one.

[Sam Spade]

LA-04 - Isn't this northern Louisiana? GOP would have to really f**k up to lose this one.

Where have I heard that recently?

Seriously, the Democrats have a strong candidate running. Louisiana outside of LA-01 and LA-02 is open to voting for candidates of either party in an open seat situation--look at Rodney Alexander's win in '02 and how many seats have flipped since then. If there was ever a district that could take its lead from the two southern specials this spring, it's this one.

Flipping these types of seats is much easier in special elections than general ones.  And the Cajun seats down South are much likely to toss around that northern Baptist LA.  Still, here are the important facts.

Positives for Dems
1. The CD is one-third black.
2. The CD used to of course, be heavily Democratic.  But like most black-belty areas, we know what happened here (mainly).  So, this is both a positive and a negative.  Shreveport area has racial tension up the wazoo, of course.
3. Dems likely have a good candidate (provided of course he gets past the primary - remember a black is also running in the primary here)

Negatives for Dems
1. To say that racial voting tends to go on in this CD is quite an understatement.
2. See #2 on positives.
3. The GOP candidates are not so terrible (as far as I can tell) or from areas of the CD where there's likely to be tension with other whites.

One important thing which I can't remember is whether the new primary system this time around is an open primary or a closed one.  That could make a difference.

So, I tend to view the CD like AL-02, feast or famine.  In a GE, that means more likely the latter.  As I said, wait until after the primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry, I meant MI-7 (Walberg's district), not MI-6.

BTW, I appreciate Sam Spade's insight.

[MarkWarner08]

NV-03 - MarkWarner08 gets hot and bothered about this seat.  I believe less (or whatever).  Oh well.

Ha! NV-03 is third fastest expanding CD in the nation -- growing at a stunning 32.1% clip over the first five years of the decade.  While a burgeoning population is typically a sanguine sign for otherwise moribund GOP House strategists, this growth may actually undermine Porter's chances by eroding his incumbency advantage. The  shifting demographics of this seat will help Democrats as evidenced by Democratic gains at the local level over the past four years. Moreover, Democratic registration has been steadily climbing here since 2003 (which was before the GOP's precipitous decline in party ID).

Porter is perhaps the luckiest incumbent in America. In 2002, he faced an ethically-challenged Hispanic Democrat with more baggage than a 747 during Memorial Day weekend. Two years later, his Democratic opponent was a casino exec. who was reviled by most in the gaming community. It wasn't until 2006, when Porter faced a Mormon Democrat with ties to the grand panjandrum of NV politics, Harry Reid, that this seat finally yielded an election result true to its marginal political makeup. While Democratic operatives were initially enthused by Robert Daksas' prospects (he seemed like a Darren White/Dave Reichert clone), Daskas inability to raise enough cash and his tentativeness as a candidate crippled the Democrat's chances.

Once Daskas dropped, many Democrats feared a repeat of PA-06, a marginal district with  a largely unchallenged vulnerable Republican incumbent, but the entrance of the Georgia-twanged Dina Titus has lifted the hopes of dejected NV-03 Democrats. If Dina Titus can cast off her 2006 nickname "Dina Taxes," and effectively frame this race as a referendum on Porter's apt name (90% of the time he carries the bags of Bush and the Republicans in Congress), Titus will win. If the the DCCC gets cold-feet and Titus doesn't have enough time to launch her organization, Porter may squeak out another win.

One final note -- Democratic operatives have been surreptitiously reminding Mormons of Porter's nasty divorce and morally objectionable personal life. While these issues may not hold salience with most voters (this district does include much of Clark County, which is home to Sin City), it may have a demoralizing effect on GOP turnout. The marginal benefit of this for Democrats is that lower Mormon turnout could cripple John McCain's chances in the narrowly-divided Silver State.

[MarkWarner08]

MN-3, MI-7, MO-9, NV-3, LA-4, FL-21, FL-25, MD-1, and NY-26.

I don't know much about where things stand in these races, any insight would be much appreciated.

MN-3: Twice so far this cycle MN Democrats have disavowed the advice of the National Democrats and have chosen less-electable candidates. Before Democrats erred in picking the unelectable Al Franken (While Franken can't win this race, the weight of the GOP brand could lead Coleman to lose his seat), MN-03 Democrats bypassed by the top fundraiser and earl Obama supporter State. Sen. Terri Bonoff in favor of a upstart Democrat with no prior elected experience. This is one rare open GOP seat in which the Republicans may have a narrow advantage -- simply because of the disparity between the two candidates.

MI-07: As some here may know, this one of my pet districts. I've long thought that Tim Walberg was vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. This was confirmed when Walberg was held to 50% by an organic farmer (!) who spent less than $75k on her first bid for elective office. Simnply put, Walberg is wrong for this swing district. His morally bankrupt economic policies (cut taxes without cutting spending, thus triggering a vicious debt cycle that increase future interest rates and leaves America in a long-term fiscal crunch) and his support from the radical Club for Growth group are prime examples of why he's to the right of most of his constituents. Now that Democrats have nominated their affable State Senate leader, a moderate pol who is borderline OCD about knocking doors (he has been known to knock doors for six straight hours on August days), this district should be pegged as a slight Democratic lean.

NY-26 and MO-09: These CDs both fall into the wait and see category.

MD-01: This district could've been an MI-07 redux (GOP voters kick out a well-liked moderate in favor of a radical conservative), alas, Steny Hoyer and the Congressional Democrats redistricted that possibility to oblivion in 2002. As part of an effort to undermine Robert Ehrlich, MD Democrats made MD-01 much more Republican. These rural areas they shifted into Wayne Gilchrest's district eventually cost him in the 2008 GOP primary. While Democrats nominated a B candidate, they probably needed a top-flight one to win in this uber-conservative district.

LA-04: Right now, I'm reserving judgment about this race.

FL-21 and FL-25: I agree with Sam Spade about these CDs. Democrats aren't picking up these seats in a POTUS election year. Period.

[Sam Spade]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Therefore, place it in toss-up (with the lean REP under the MarkWarner08 if I had to guess), and be done with it.  MN-03 belongs in the same category as the district acts pretty similar to MI-07 generically.

I still want to know the answer to my question on the LA-04 primary - is it open or closed?  I am quite too lazy to look it up, of course.

[MarkWarner08]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Therefore, place it in toss-up (with the lean REP under the MarkWarner08 if I had to guess), and be done with it.  MN-03 belongs in the same category as the district acts pretty similar to MI-07 generically.

I still want to know the answer to my question on the LA-04 primary - is it open or closed?  I am quite too lazy to look it up, of course.

I'm pretty sure (though not with metaphysical certitude ) that the LA-04 primary will be closed.

[Sam Spade]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Therefore, place it in toss-up (with the lean REP under the MarkWarner08 if I had to guess), and be done with it.  MN-03 belongs in the same category as the district acts pretty similar to MI-07 generically.

I still want to know the answer to my question on the LA-04 primary - is it open or closed?  I am quite too lazy to look it up, of course.

I'm pretty sure (though not with metaphysical certitude ) that the LA-04 primary will be closed.

If so, then whitey has to worry a bit about being taken out by blackey in the primary.

[Mr.Phips]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Careful here.  Democrat David Wolpe held a district that was pretty much the same territory as the current MI-07 from 1978 to 1992. 

[JSojourner]

Thanks Spade for your micro work on this.

He's something, isn't he?  I learn so much from that guy...

[Torie]

Thanks Spade for your micro work on this.

He's something, isn't he?  I learn so much from that guy...

Indeed he is. But the grand thing, is that there are a few guys like him here, including, inter alia, BRTD, as I just found out. Who knew? 

Folks who put in the hard work to make the game of politics more meaningful and interesting for us, deserve our thanks in every way. Kudos to all of them.

[Flying Dog]

MI - 07:

This is hopefully the DCCC's top target. Walberg is a way to conservative for this district. Sam is correct when he pegs this as a Conservative-leaning district, however that should only help highlight the fact that Walberg couldn't break 50% against a nobody candidate.

The Democrats scored a major recruiting coup when they drafted State Senator Mark Schauer into the race. He was definitely the best nominee recruit. He's the State Senate Minority Leader.
He faces no primary opposition that I know of, so he should already be concentrating on Walberg. Walberg is a formidable fundraiser, mostly from PAC's and the like. I know he had Dick Cheney come in to fundrais back in March.

Schauer should do well in Calhoun and Eaton, the two county's he represents. Walberg will likely win Branch and Hillsdale. It will be interesting to see if Albion and its college can outdo the rest of the county to swing Lenawee to him.

My prediction:

Schauer: 52%

Walberg: 47%

I wish Schwartz(Primaried by Walberg) ran as an Indy, It would have made things a lot easier on Schauer. 

[Sam Spade]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Careful here.  Democrat David Wolpe held a district that was pretty much the same territory as the current MI-07 from 1978 to 1992. 

David Wolpe?  Don't you mean Howard Wolpe?  And I seem to remember his CD was mainly Kalamazoo, but I don't remember old maps that well (that's Al territory)

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for your comments, JSojourner and Torie. 

[ilikeverin]

MN-03 - Dems nominated someone too far from the left with no political experience.

In what ways is Madla far-left? I know he's anti-war and associated with progressive activists, but I don't know of positions that make him more of a radical than a suburban moderate in ways that the voters on MN-03 care about. He seems to be a process radical, not a substance one.

I'm not sure, especially because he was a Republican until about 4-6 years ago.

I'm a very strong Madia supporter, and I think he should be given more credit.  He did essentially what Obama did in the national primary... upstaged the established candidate on the coordinated efforts of well-intended newbies to the political process.  Is that the action of the "lesser candidate"?  What he lacks in dossier, he more than makes up for in sheer competence.  He thrives in small groups of supporters, being grilled in Q-and-A, because he can actually answer a question, any question, that you ask.  I asked him what we'd do with the Guantanamo detainees, and he told me.  I asked him about illegal immigration, and he said right away that he supported amnesty, and oh by the way what do I think?  There wasn't any politicianspeak, nor wishywashyness... he just went right ahead and said it.

Also, Terri Bonoff has a really annoying voice, and couched every single statement she said with "as a working mother..."

[Mr.Phips]

See, I knew I could get a page-long spiel on NV-03 from MarkWarner 08 if I pushed hard enough. 

About MI-07:

Walberg is a weak incumbent (I suspect).  His challenger is fairly good (I suspect).  I include all the I suspects because it's still early and not everything should be based on 2006.

However, on a generic level, I have to disagree with the characterization of the CD as a swing district.  It's really more like "swing" at the national level, lean GOP at the local level.  I really don't characterize as a "swing" area a place that's elected GOP reps consistently for the last 70 years.

Careful here.  Democrat David Wolpe held a district that was pretty much the same territory as the current MI-07 from 1978 to 1992. 

David Wolpe?  Don't you mean Howard Wolpe?  And I seem to remember his CD was mainly Kalamazoo, but I don't remember old maps that well (that's Al territory)

Im sorry, it was Howard Wolpe.  The only difference between the current MI-07 and the district Wolpe held was that Wolpe's old district included parts of Kalamazoo and not the lightly populated Southern counties on the Ohio border.  The both had Battle Creek and Eaton county.  The Democratic base in Kalamazoo area was replaced with Democratic leaning precincts around Ann Arbor. 

[ilikeverin]

Update: Madia outraised Paulsen last quarter, though Paulsen has $300,000 more cash on hand.

And I'm working as an intern at Madia's office (the bad: I'm unpaid.  the good: that means I can work when it works for me!)