The Hill: State by State Thread

[HardRCafé]

Any Democrat.

Even Keith Ellison?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Almost^ Any Democrat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
Posted: 06/09/08 06:05 PM [ET]

Alabama

State Rep. Jay Love leads state Sen. Harri Anne Smith by 28 points in their GOP runoff match-up in the 2nd congressional district, according to a poll released Sunday by the Love campaign.

The survey of 300 likely runoff voters by McLaughlin and Associates showed Love up 60-32. He appeared to pick up those supporting candidates now out of the race after a crowded primary field was whittled down to two last week.

Love led Smith 35-22 in the six-candidate primary.

The winner will face Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who won the Democratic primary outright, for the right to replace retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R).

Love’s favorable rating was 68 percent, with 5 percent unfavorable. Smith’s favorability was 51-19.
Smith campaign coordinator Bill Harris accused Love of running a push poll.

“Insiders know that you can make a poll say whatever you want it to,” Harris said. “To tell me there’s only 8 percent undecided? C’mon. This is just a tactic Mr. Love is using to make people assume he has the nomination.”

The runoff is still five weeks away and will be held July 15.



Alaska

Another poll is showing not only competitive races in Alaska, but early edges for the Democratic candidates for Sen. Ted Stevens’s (R) and Rep. Don Young’s (R) seats.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leads Stevens 51-44 and former lieutenant governor candidate Ethan Berkowitz leads Young 58-38 in an independent poll conducted for lobbyist Sam Kito and reported by the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Kito is a big-money donor to both major parties.

The poll showed the GOP would be better off nominating Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell over Young. Parnell leads Berkowitz 43-38. In the primary, Parnell leads Young 37-34, a result within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll was performed by Hellenthal and Associates and also showed Stevens leading primary opponent David Cuddy by 15 points.

The margin of error was 6 percent.

— A.B.


Connecticut

State Sen. David Cappiello (R) announced Monday that he has raised more than $1 million for his race against freshman Rep. Chris Murphy (D).

Cappiello has stepped up his fundraising after showing just $10,000 raised between April 1 and April 20. In the month and a half since April 20, he has raised about $340,000.

“Crossing this major milestone well ahead of our June 30 filing deadline is a true testament to the momentum we’ve been able to build heading into the summer,” Cappiello said in a statement.

Murphy had raised $1.8 million as of late April and had a $1.5 million-to-$400,000 advantage in cash on hand.

— A.B.


Minnesota

Comedian Al Franken won the backing of Minnesota’s Democratic Party on Saturday to challenge Republican Norm Coleman for his Senate seat in the fall.

Franken’s unanimous endorsement comes after weeks of bad press stemming from some of his sexually explicit satirical writings and sketches on “Saturday Night Live,” as well as questions about his tax returns.

During Saturday’s convention of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, the formal name of the state’s Democratic Party, Franken apologized for his jokes.

“It kills me that things I said and wrote sent a message … that they can’t count on me to be a champion for women, for all Minnesotans,” Franken said, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “I’m sorry for that. Because that’s not who I am.

“I wrote a lot of jokes. Some of them weren’t funny. Some of them weren’t appropriate. Some of them were downright offensive. I understand that,” he said, the paper reported.

Franken has been the choice of national Democrats and was expected to get the party’s endorsement.

The controversy over his jokes, however, left open the possibility that the convention might be divided and give challenger Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer a chance at securing the endorsement. But the party handed Franken its unanimous endorsement on the first ballot.

Republicans are eager to take on Franken, hoping they can paint the comedian as an insensitive liberal. In particular, they point to a racy 2000 satirical article he wrote for Playboy magazine, titled “Porn-O-Rama,” and a sketch he proposed in the mid-1990s for “Saturday Night Live” joking about rape.

“For over 30 years, Al Franken has joked about rape and pornography, made fun of people’s appearances and viciously insulted those with whom he disagreed,” said Ron Carey, the chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota. “Al Franken is about as sorry for what he has said and done as he is qualified to be in the United States Senate.”

But Democrats say Franken’s jokes will not affect him in the fall.

“Look, we knew that from the get-go he had a previous career,” said Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, expressing no regrets last week about his backing of Franken. “Here’s what all the polling data shows: You look at all the things that Al Franken said as a comedian … and then you say simply that Norm Coleman supports the war and supports President Bush 90-plus percent of the time. Franken wins by 10 points.”

— Manu Raju


New Mexico

Former Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich was named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue program on Monday, less than a week after he won the primary in Rep. Heather Wilson’s (R) House district.

Heinrich will face Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White in the general election after Wilson unsuccessfully ran for Senate. Wilson’s Albuquerque-based district is one of the top swing districts in the country, and the battle should be expensive.

Wilson fell to Rep. Steve Pearce in last Tuesday’s GOP primary.

— A.B.


New York

Republican congressional nominee Francis Powers could have a most unusual but familiar opponent in his race this year — his own son.

Libertarian Fran Powers told the Staten Island Advance last week that he would seek his party’s endorsement to run for retiring Rep. Vito Fossella’s (R) seat. That seat just happens to be the one for which his father was handed the GOP’s blessing last month.

“This is not about my dad,” the younger Powers told the Advance. “I’m running against the Republican candidate.”

Fran Powers is a carpenter and musician who runs an independent music label. His father is a retired Wall Street executive and GOP fundraiser.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Fran Powers plans to file as Francis M. Powers, which could cause voters to confuse him with his father, Francis H. Powers.

“I’ve tried very hard for many years to help my son,” the elder Powers said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, he’s rejected everyone’s help to live a healthy lifestyle. Regardless of whether he wants to run for Congress, I still stand ready to help him move his life in a positive direction.”

The elder Powers, whose nomination by Staten Island Republicans came after better-known candidates opted against running, already faces a primary challenge from the borough’s Republican Party finance chairman, Jamshad Wyne.

— A.B.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-09.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 06/11/08 06:33 PM [ET]

Illinois

Republican House candidate Marty Ozinga is trying hard to link state Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D) to convicted political fixer Tony Rezko, and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) appears ready to assist him.

Jackson on Wednesday confirmed that a proposal Rezko pushed for in 2006 wound up in a bill sponsored by Halvorson.

Jackson said on WLS-890 AM’s “Don Wade and Roma” morning show that two years ago Rezko pitched him a plan to compose a new airport board of appointed, instead of elected, officials. Jackson said he said no to the plan, but that a similar proposal later found its way into Halvorson’s bill.

The proposal was seen as a boon to Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), to whom Rezko was a close adviser.

Asked whether he knew if Rezko met with Halvorson, Jackson said: “I don’t have the answer to that. But the way the governor functions, not always does the left hand know completely what the right hand is doing.”

Jackson aide Rick Bryant over the weekend detailed the Jackson-Rezko meeting in a column published locally, and he called out Halvorson by name.

“Pay-to-play was the pathway laid out in Senate Bill 2063, sponsored by state Sen. Debbie Halvorson,” wrote Bryant, who is also executive director of the Abraham Lincoln National Airport Commission.

Asked if it might hurt Halvorson’s election hopes, Jackson said principle and 15,000 private-sector jobs mattered more.

“This isn’t about a Democratic seat or a Republican seat,” he said. “This isn’t about a job for Debbie Halvorson. It’s not about Rod Blagojevich’s job. It’s not even about my job.”

Jackson initially tried to downplay the alleged Rezko-Halvorson connection, telling the Southtown Star:

“Halvorson is mentioned only once in that entire piece” and that “Mr. Bryant wrote it, not me.”

But after being read a press release from Ozinga’s campaign Wednesday, he confirmed the confluence of events.

Rezko was convicted last week on 16 of 24 counts in his corruption trial. His connections to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) have occasionally been an issue on the presidential campaign trail.

Halvorson and Ozinga are battling for retiring Rep. Jerry Weller’s (R) swing district.

Halvorson fought back against Jackson late Friday.

“I am an independent fighter for the people I represent and I won’t let Chicago politicians tell us what to do in the 11th congressional district,” she said. “This bill has bipartisan support from the legislators in Will County because this third airport bill is about local control and not handing over an airport in Will County over to bigwigs from Chicago. Our plan gives one appointment to the governor, and ALNAC’s plan ultimately gives five.

“This issue is too important for petty politics, and shame on anyone for suggesting ties to convicted felon Rezko — someone whom I have never even met.”

— Aaron Blake


Maine

Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree defeated Iraq veteran and attorney Adam Cote on Tuesday in a crowded field to replace Rep. Tom Allen (D), who is running for Senate.

Pingree, as the Democratic nominee, will be heavily favored in the Democratic-leaning district. In the general election she will face Iraq veteran and former state Sen. Charles Summers, who won a two-man GOP primary.

Pingree took 44 percent of the vote to Cote’s 29 percent, with 94 percent of precincts in. Summers topped his race with 60 percent of the vote, according to results available Wednesday afternoon.

The Democratic nominee fell to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in 2002, 57-41, in a strong year for Republicans.

She led this year’s primary from the outset and withstood a late charge from Cote, a former Republican who found traction when the rest of the field went far left.

Allen easily won his primary, as expected, and will face Collins in the state’s Senate race.

— A.B.


Minnesota

Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R) campaign released his first television ad Wednesday, and in it he talked about his leadership philosophy.

The ad makes no mention of comedian Al Franken, who was endorsed by the state Democratic Party over the weekend. But it does allude to the many complaints Franken has lodged against Coleman.

“It’s not good enough just to criticize, not good enough to tear something down,” Coleman says. “The business of serving the people is about making a difference, and about doing something — not just fighting about it, but doing something about it.”

— A.B.


New Jersey

Former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R) is within striking distance but still trails Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) in the aftermath of Lautenberg’s successful primary defense, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

The poll put Lautenberg ahead 47-38 and comes after a Rasmussen poll earlier in the week put Lautenberg up by just one point, 45-44.

Lautenberg faced a well-funded challenge last week but easily defeated Rep. Robert Andrews (D), 59-35, in the primary. Polls show much of his vulnerability has to do with his age, 84.

The seat is the lesser of two top takeover hopes for the national GOP, with the other being Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D-La.) seat. But the GOP has been unable to get over the hump in New Jersey, losing the last four Senate races each by 10 points or less.

Zimmer has run for Senate before but fell to Sen. Robert Torricelli (D) 53-43 in 1996.

— A.B.


http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-11.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

North Carolina

Rep. Robin Hayes (R) is wasting little time going after Democratic opponent Larry Kissell this cycle, releasing a television ad this week that accuses Kissell of skirting campaign payroll taxes.

For each of his two campaigns against Hayes, this cycle and last, Kissell has hired all his staff as independent contractors. That means they are responsible for paying their own taxes and Kissell is not paying for Social Security, unemployment benefits or Medicare.

The ad, Hayes’s first of the cycle, says Kissell is “manipulating his workers’ paychecks to save himself a buck.”

Kissell spokesman Thomas Thacker said the campaign only recently hired field staff that will be full employees, and that they will be paid July 1. He said that in the 2006 cycle, the campaign was so poorly funded that it relied on volunteers and month-to-month consultants.

He said the staff would be doubling soon and that about half of it will be on payroll.

“It’s desperate, it’s deceiving, I think it’s timed perfectly to hit just before a campaign would normally expand and have employees,” Thacker said of the ad. “That’s what this is.”

Hayes defeated Kissell by just 329 votes in 2006.

— A.B.


South Carolina

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) sailed to re-nomination for a second term Tuesday against a former Republican National Committeeman. On the House side, a well-funded dark horse, Food Lion heiress Linda Ketner, won the Democratic primary to face Rep. Henry Brown Jr. (R).

Graham defeated retired orthodontist Buddy Witherspoon, who left his RNC post for the race, 67-33. Graham faces only nominal general-election opposition.

Ketner won her race with 65 percent of the vote and faces an uphill battle against Brown, who has never taken less than 60 percent of the vote but hasn’t faced a difficult challenge in years.

With more than $780,000 raised, Ketner has raised about $130,000 more than Brown.

Another long-shot Democrat with some financial resources won in the 2nd district. Former Marine Capt. Rob Miller, who has raised $300,000, took 67 percent of the primary vote Tuesday and will face Rep. Joe Wilson (R), who has also not faced serious competition.

Both Brown’s and Wilson’s districts voted around 60 percent for President Bush in 2004.

— A.B.


Tennessee

A Washington ethics watchdog group on Wednesday filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s campaign regarding the Tennessee Republican’s self-admitted FEC reporting errors.

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) joined one of Blackburn’s constituents, Germantown resident Barbara Kaye Ginsberg, in filing the complaint against Marsha Blackburn for Congress and the committee’s treasurer, Tea Hoffman.

In April, Blackburn announced that an audit she initiated of all her campaign finance records resulted in her re-filing all 32 periodic reports she has made to the FEC since she first ran for Congress in 2002.

Blackburn said that more than $440,000 in campaign donations and disbursements had not been reported or were misreported, including $102,044 in unreported contributions, $286,278 in unreported spending — including $63,000 for political advertising and $18,821 to her daughter, Mary Morgan Ketchel, and her son-in-law, Paul, for their company, Political Concepts — and an additional $52,025 in accounting errors in other expenditures.

Blackburn said she had been in contact with FEC over the reporting problems and highlighted her proactive role in addressing the problems.

But CREW’s complaint — in addition to arguing that Blackburn violated campaign laws — also alleges that campaign officials may have committed perjury by signing a statement saying all information provided to the FEC to resolve a 2006 investigation — which resulted in a $1,500 fine — failed to report the contribution from Friends of Duke Cunningham, then under investigation by federal authorities.

“Given the Blackburn campaign committee’s longstanding pattern of filing inaccurate FEC reports and the large amounts of money involved, the FEC should step in, investigate the committee and sanction it appropriately,” CREW Executive Director Melanie Sloan said in a statement. “In addition, if it turns out that the campaign committee deliberately hid the Cunningham contribution when negotiating a settlement with the FEC, the Department of Justice should consider whether a perjury prosecution is appropriate.”

Blackburn’s primary opponent, former State Sen. Tom Leatherwood, has been using Blackburn’s campaign disclosure problems and her campaign’s employment of family members as his main talking points against her.

— Jared Allen


Virginia

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly’s Democratic primary win Tuesday in retiring Rep. Tom Davis’s (R) district might have been bigger, but Democrats also have some hope in the neighboring 10th district.

Democratic Georgetown University Professor Judy Feder defeated retired Air Force Col. Mike Turner 62-38 and will again face Rep. Frank Wolf (R), who beat her 57-41 in 2006.

Feder faces an uphill battle, but she has nearly matched Wolf by raising more than $1 million so far.

— A.B.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-11.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
Posted: 06/16/08 06:00 PM [ET]

Maryland

Democrat Donna Edwards is expected to become the newest member of Congress when Tuesday’s special election for former Rep. Albert Wynn’s (D) seat is complete.

Edwards, an activist, defeated Wynn in the February primary. Wynn then resigned earlier this month to accept a lobbying job, paving the way for the special election.

Edwards faces Republican Peter James, but the district is heavily Democratic. It voted 78 percent for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 presidential race.



Michigan

One of Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick’s (D) primary opponents is running a hard-hitting ad seeking to link Kilpatrick to the troubles of her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D).

The ad features a full-throated defense Kilpatrick gave of her son, who was revealed through a series of text messages to have had an affair with his chief of staff. The ads are paid for by the campaign of former state Rep. Mary Waters (D).

Waters’s ad lists the felony counts against the mayor beneath a heavily circulated clip of Kilpatrick pleading for loyalty to her son, to whom she refers as “y’all’s boy.”

“Sorry, congresswoman, but we deserve much better than ‘y’all’s boy,’ ” the ad states.

State Sen. Martha Scott (D) is also running in the primary, which is Aug. 5.

— A.B.


Pennsylvania

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) led Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 47-42 in their match-up in late March, according to a poll released Monday by Barletta’s campaign.

The poll showed 36 percent of voters definitely voting for Barletta and 30 percent definitely for Kanjorski. Leaners put the margin at 5 percent, which was barely outside of the poll’s margin of error.

Kanjorski defeated Barletta 56-42 in 2002, but Republicans have high hopes for his repeat bid.

The polling was performed before a video surfaced of Kanjorski suggesting Democrats in 2006 oversold their ability to end the Iraq war.

It was conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research among 400 likely voters between March 27 and 29. The poll only counted voters who had a voting record in the last four years.

Kanjorski’s campaign declined to comment.

— A.B.


Tennessee

Freshman Rep. David Davis (R) holds a wide lead over his primary opponent, according to a poll released Friday by Davis’s campaign.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll of 300 likely primary voters shows Davis ahead of Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe 61-20 overall and has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

Davis won a crowded open-seat primary in 2006 with 22 percent of the vote. Roe finished fourth, with 17 percent, but he has Davis in a one-on-one match-up this time around.

Roe’s campaign emphasized that the poll was conducted in May, and the intensity of the campaign has picked up in recent days.

“The poll released by David Davis was conducted in May, before any advertising had begun,” said Roe spokeswoman Vicki Shell. “At that time, a poll conducted by the Phil Roe campaign showed that 70 percent of the voters in the 1st district didn’t know the name of their congressman.”

The primary is Aug. 7.

— A.B.


Virginia

Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) assured state Democrats this week that he would not desert his current Senate race in order to become Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) vice presidential nominee.

Much like Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) did recently, Warner offered a Sherman-esque guarantee.

“I have been working really hard since last fall, and I am committed 110 percent to asking the people of Virginia to give me the honor of being elected their next United States senator,” Warner said, according to the Roanoke Times. “I have not sought and will not accept any other opportunity, because I want to serve in the United States Senate.”

Warner surprised many in late 2006 by opting against a presidential campaign of his own. He was also thought to be a strong vice presidential candidate until he entered the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. John Warner (R).

— A.B.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-16.html

[Mr.Phips]

There is no way Barletta is leading there.  That is a Democratic district and Barletta is an awful fit for the district as a whole. 

[Flying Dog]

I hope all the Kilpatricks are kicked out of office this year. Either by legal action or the voters. They're a bad brand to have around right now with Obama trying to energize Detroit and not get himself connected to the Mayor or his scandals and corruption.

[Spaghetti Cat]

CCK will be fine. Even if she loses her primary, the congessional black caucus will spend millions to keep its chair in congress.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Alabama

Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) has been on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue list for months, but it appears few people knew that.

The DCCC neglected to announce the addition of Bright to the list, but his name was among the 25 candidates already part of the program when the committee announced its new slate of Red to Blue candidates Wednesday.

The program helps top candidates running for seats currently held by Republicans.

“Bobby Bright is a strong, independent candidate for change in Alabama’s 2nd district, and we’re happy to have had him on the DCCC’s Red to Blue program since late February,” DCCC spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said. “Bright has been featured as a strong candidate online and to Democratic supporters, which is the purpose of the Red to Blue program.”

Bright, who was elected mayor as an Independent but is running for retiring Rep. Terry Everett’s (R) seat as a Democrat, is a top Democratic hope.

— Aaron Blake


Louisiana

Rep. William Jefferson (D) will run for reelection despite being indicted on federal bribery charges.

“I will run on my record of effective service to the people of my district over the years, and in particular over the last three years since Hurricane Katrina,” Jefferson said in a statement.

Jefferson said, “The fact that I am the target of an overly zealous prosecution has not prevented my delivering for our district and our state.

“The U.S. Court of Appeals has already found that the raid of my office violated the Constitution, and the Supreme Court decided to let that ruling stand. We are mounting a forceful attack on the government’s false factual allegations and its flawed legal theory, and we are going to continue to insist that I receive a fair trial.”

Jefferson learned last week that he will again face a primary challenge, this time from state Rep. Cedric Richmond and Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee.

Jefferson’s brother, sister and niece were also indicted earlier this month.

— Andy Barr


Maryland

Rep.-elect Donna Edwards (D) will be sworn in Thursday, according to her campaign.

Voters chose Edwards in a special election Tuesday over Republican candidate Peter James, 67 percent to 30, in Maryland’s 4th district.

Edwards replaces former Rep. Albert Wynn (D), who resigned his seat earlier this month after losing to Edwards in a Democratic primary. Wynn opted to leave early to become a lobbyist.

Edwards had been executive director of the public-interest Arca Foundation until she took a leave of absence for the campaign.

Edwards, 49, will become the first black woman from Maryland in the House of Representatives.

— Michael O’Brien


Minnesota

Former Sen. Dean Barkley (I) pulled his name out of contention for the state’s Senate race on Wednesday, but he said he thinks former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) is leaning toward running.

Speaking on Minnesota Public Radio, Ventura’s former campaign manager hazarded a guess that the professional wrestler-turned-politician would enter the race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and Democrat Al Franken.

Barkley claimed no ability to predict what will happen, but he is close with Ventura.

“My read on Jesse is that he’s torn,” Barkley said, ticking off the reasons Ventura wants to run, including his distaste for Washington, Coleman and Franken. “The negative is that he has developed a very nice lifestyle” living half the year in Mexico.

Pressed, Barkley said, “He’s got a taste of it, he’s mad enough, I’ve talked to [his wife] and I don’t think [she’s] going to say no.”

Ventura has said he won’t decide until right up to the July 15 filing deadline.

Barkley, whom Ventura appointed to serve briefly between Sen. Paul Wellstone’s (D) 2002 plane crash death and Coleman’s swearing-in, has previously said that he would run for the seat if Ventura did not.

But he said his job will no longer allow him to do that.

A SurveyUSA poll released Friday showed Coleman leading Franken, 52 percent to 40, in a head-to-head match-up. When Ventura was added to the mix, Coleman led Franken, 41 percent to 31, with Ventura taking 23 percent.

A race with Barkley showed the former senator at 8 percent, with Coleman leading Franken, 48-37.

— Aaron Blake


Nevada

A recent poll by Mason-Dixon of Nevada congressional races showed a tight contest in the 3rd district between Rep. Jon Porter (R) and challenger Dina Titus (D).

The poll showed Porter maintaining a slight advantage, 45 percent to 42, over Titus, with 13 percent undecided and a 6.6 percent margin of error. Porter barely escaped defeat in 2006, eking out a 48 percent-to-47 percent win over former Senate aide Tessa Hafen.

Titus, a state senator and her party’s 2006 gubernatorial nominee, will face Porter this fall for the district, which includes Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, in the 2nd district, freshman Rep. Dean Heller (R) maintains a wider margin over his Democratic challenger, Jill Derby, the former chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party. According to Mason-Dixon, Heller leads Derby 53 percent to 39, with 8 percent undecided and a 6.6 percent margin of error.

— Michael O’Brien


North Carolina

Rep. Robin Hayes (R) trails Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by two points in a head-to-head match-up in the 8th district, according to internal polling results released Wednesday by Kissell’s campaign.

The poll shows Kissell leads Hayes, 45 percent to 43 in the initial match-up. It was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research, which contacted 600 likely general-election voters in the district.

The poll also showed Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leading Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.),  50 percent to 37, in the presidential race in the district.

“The voters of North Carolina’s 8th district know that Larry Kissell connects with them and shares their concerns,” said Kissell spokesman Thomas Thacker.

Hayes spokesman Steve Quain said Kissell’s polls can’t be trusted.

Hayes defeated Kissell by just 329 votes in 2006.

“In October of 2006, Larry Kissell was hyping a poll that said he was winning by five points, and as he found out, the only poll that mattered was the poll on Election Day that said Robin Hayes was the winner,” Quain said.

— David Matthews

 

Ohio

Rep. Steve Chabot (R), who anticipates a difficult reelection battle in Ohio’s 1st district, on Tuesday unveiled a proposal to lower gas prices that closely mirrors legislation Senate Democrats pushed last week.

Both bills seek to limit the effect of market speculation on rising oil prices by targeting foreign trading boards. They would limit foreign boards’ impact by extending the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Senate bill would also raise margin requirements for domestic traders, a step Chabot does not take. This provision would require speculators to put more at stake in deals, making risky gambles more costly. Chabot prefers to hold foreign traders to current U.S. standards.

Chabot spokesman George Cecala said his boss is eager to work with Democrats to solve the high cost of energy.

“We think we should be working together to solve this problem,” said Cecala. “It’s a national problem that transcends party lines.

“We need to look at the entire industry and analyze where the problems are and propose ideas to fix the problem,” he said. “Our hope is to work across the aisle to solve this problem.”

Chabot is a constant Democratic target and faces a top-tier challenge from state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) this year.

— Alexander Bolton

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-18.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 06/23/08 07:14 PM [ET]

National

Politically endangered House Democrats were split late last week on the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) legislation that has attracted strong criticism from liberal bloggers.

The compromise FISA bill, backed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and President Bush, passed 293-129, with 105 Democrats voting yes and 128 rejecting it. While 13 committee chairmen and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) voted no, many targeted members approved it.

Among the politically vulnerable yes votes were Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.), John Barrow (Ga.), Melissa Bean (Ill.), Nancy Boyda (Kan.), Don Cazayoux (La.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Paul Kanjorski (Pa.), Tim Mahoney (Fla.), Jim Marshall (Ga.), Nick Lampson (Texas), Jerry McNerney (Calif.) and John Yarmuth (Ky.).

Targeted Democrats who voted no included Reps. Joe Courtney (Conn.), Bill Foster (Ill.), Baron Hill (Ind.), Paul Hodes (N.H.), Steve Kagen (Wis.), Chris Murphy (Conn.), Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) and Tim Walz (Minn.).

Every House Republican voted yes on the FISA bill except for Rep. Timothy Johnson (Ill.).

Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) voted no while his cousin, Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), voted yes.

Both Udalls are running for the Senate this year.

Liberal bloggers have called on Democrats to block the bill because it includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that participated in the Bush administration’s surveillance programs.

— Bob Cusack


California
 
GOP congressional candidate Dean Andal is denying that he violated a state law by discussing information from a closed session of the San Joaquin Delta College Board of Trustees.

In 2006 Andal was identified by a board member as the recipient of the closed-session information. A civil grand jury report issued last week said the board has “wasted millions of taxpayer dollars and violated open-government laws by discussing closed-session matters outside its meetings.”

But the report doesn’t identify Andal by name, and he denied violating the state’s Brown Act.

“If someone had tried to give me closed-session information, I would have stopped it,” Andal told the Contra Costa Times. “I am very experienced with the requirements of the Brown Act.”

Andal adviser Richard Temple told The Hill that Andal “is very definitive on it, no hedging.”

Andal is a consultant to a group headed by developer Gerry Kamilos. That group was in discussions to provide the college $14 million in assistance to develop the Mountain House area.

Delta Board President Ted Simas said at the time that Andal called him just hours after a board meeting with information he could have gotten only by speaking with someone inside the meeting.

“[Andal] told me that two board members called his boss about the negotiations,” Simas told the Stockton Record in August 2006. “Only he and Kamilos know who they are. We’re asking them to come forward and tell us who the board members are.

“They did nothing wrong. The board members did.”

Andal said at the time that he didn’t recall such a conversation.

The board’s dealings were studied by a grand jury because the Mountain House project is vastly over budget.

Democrats promise to use Andal’s involvement against him during his campaign against freshman Rep. Jerry McNerney (D). Andal’s personal financial disclosure reports indicate he made hundreds of thousands of dollars from Kamilos’s group over the last three years.

The district is a top GOP target.

Temple stressed that Andal is one of many consultants who has worked on the project.

— Aaron Blake

 
Colorado

The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund kicked off a campaign to unseat Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) on Thursday with a $210,000 media buy.  Earlier in the week the organization endorsed Musgrave’s challenger, businesswoman Betsy Markey, in a release assailing Musgrave’s environmental record as “atrocious.”

“This is just the beginning of a sustained campaign, and the rest will be rolled out in due course,” said Jessica Brand, an Action Fund associate.

Musgrave has served in Congress since 2002, during which she has a 99 percent lifetime record with the American Conservative Union. Conversely, the League of Conservation Voters’ 2007 scorecard gave Musgrave a 5 percent rating for that year, just above her 4 percent lifetime rating.

Since her initial election with 55 percent of the vote, Musgrave has faced dwindling margins of victory in her successive elections. She bested a repeat candidate in 2004, 51-45, and only beat her Democratic challenger by 6,000 votes in 2006. A Reform Party candidate drew 11 percent of voters in that election, leaving Musgrave at just 46 percent.

— Michael O’Brien


Idaho

Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) hinted over the weekend that he might not support his successor in Congress this cycle, according to The Idaho Statesman.

Rep. Bill Sali (R) was one of several key figures to support a candidate who opposed Otter’s choice for state party chairman. Otter’s choice lost, and he could send a message by leaving Sali to fend for himself against a well-financed challenger in Democrat Walt Minnick.

In an e-mail to The Statesman, Otter responded to a question about whether he would try to get even with Sali by saying, “Wait and see.”

When asked if he would assist Sali in his campaign, Otter said, “Bill Sali and I haven’t discussed his campaign.”

Sali’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

— A.B.


Indiana

A SurveyUSA poll conducted early last week shows that Rep. Baron Hill (D) leads former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their back-and-forth battle for Indiana’s 9th district, which dates back to 2002.

In the poll, the incumbent maintains a 51-40 advantage over Sodrel. Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg draws 4 percent and 5 percent are undecided. The poll has a 4.1 percent margin of error.

The poll additionally showed Hill as drawing more support in all age groups, but especially among older voters. Among independent voters polled, Hill leads 48-30 over Sodrel. Schansberg polls at 14 percent among independent voters, suggesting Sodrel may be losing votes to the Libertarian candidate.

Hill was first elected to Congress in 1998, and will now face Sodrel as his Republican challenger for the fourth consecutive election. He beat Sodrel in 2002, but lost in 2004. Hill reclaimed his seat in 2006.

— M.O.


Oregon

The (Portland) Oregonian on Monday detailed the story of a woman who claims anti-abortion rights GOP congressional candidate Mike Erickson paid $300 for her to have an abortion in January 2001.

The woman’s story was first used against Erickson in May, when his opponent in the Republican primary, Kevin Mannix, sent out the story in a mass mailing to voters one week before the primary. Erickson won the primary anyway and will be facing off against Democratic state Sen. Kurt Schrader  in November.

Erickson has repeatedly denied paying for the abortion. He said that the woman, only identified in The Oregonian as Tawnya, asked for some money to go to a doctor’s appointment, and he didn’t know or ask what it was for. He says he drove her to the appointment because she said she had car troubles.

“She was having some financial troubles. … She asked for some money to go have a doctor’s appointment — not knowing what that was — and whatever happened, happened, I guess. I didn’t even know she had an abortion,” he is quoted as saying in The Oregonian.

Erickson’s campaign promised to comment further on Monday but did not do so by press time.

Anti-abortion rights group Oregon Right to Life has refused to endorse his candidacy.

— David Matthews


Pennsylvania

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) polled well ahead of opponent Bob Roggio (D) in their 6th district match-up, according to a polling memo released Friday by the Gerlach campaign.

The poll, conducted May 20-21 by Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, showed Gerlach holding a 56-30 lead and a favorable rating of 58-20 in a congressional district where President Bush’s job approval currently stands at 27 percent.

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The Roggio campaign responded that the poll was an internal one, conducted on behalf of the Gerlach campaign, and promised to release numbers of its own by the start of next week.

Spokeswoman Liz Conroy stressed that the results of this early poll do not adequately account for Roggio’s competitiveness: “Our initial analysis showed that voters are looking for a candidate with new priorities, someone who’s not from Washington,” she said.

Gerlach, a three-term incumbent, has faced stiff electoral challenges in previous years. His last reelection campaign, a rematch with 2004 opponent Lois Murphy, was decided by only 3,000 votes out of over 234,000 cast.

—Joey Michalakes

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-23.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

National

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) has been named vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) after raising $4 million for the committee this cycle and heading up the successful President’s Dinner.

NRSC Chairman John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced Hatch’s new role Wednesday. He has previously lavished praise on Hatch for motivating his reluctant colleagues to get involved in the party’s Senate races.

“It is a difficult time — that’s why I’m willing to do it,” Hatch said. “I really think it would be a disaster to this country if we were to lose any of our Republican senators.”

— Aaron Blake and J. Taylor Rushing


Louisiana

Democratic state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. announced Wednesday that he will challenge incumbent Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. (R) in Louisiana’s 7th District, fueling Democrats’ hopes to pick up another seat in Louisiana after Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) won a special election to replace former Rep. Richard Baker (R).

“I share the values of faith and family that we have in Louisiana,” Cravins said in a release Wednesday. “I’m pro-life and pro-gun, and I have a proven record of working in a commonsense, bipartisan manner to get things accomplished.”

Boustany was first elected in 2004 after having to endure a runoff, but he racked up a whopping 71 percent of the vote in 2006.

“Congressman Boustany has a long record, and that’s what we’re going to run on,” said Rick Curtsinger, a spokesman for Boustany. Curtsinger said that the campaign would emphasize Boustany’s focus on constituent services, particularly his work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Hurricane Katrina relief.

He said Boustany is not concerned about political winds favoring Democrats, and noted that GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal cruised to election last year.

Curtsinger said the campaign expected to report over $600,000 in cash on hand at the end of the second quarter.

— Michael O’Brien


Oregon

Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is taking fire from state Democrats for using Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in a new campaign ad to burnish his bipartisan credentials.

The ad touts Smith’s co-sponsorship of a 2006 bill, written by Obama, that sought to raise fuel-efficiency standards. It was released Tuesday, and begins by announcing, “Who says Gordon Smith led the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama.”

Democrats, including Smith’s opponent, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D), say the spot is misleading.
Merkley spokesman Matt Canter told The Portland Oregonian on Wednesday that, “What Barack Obama did say was that Gordon Smith has rarely broken from George Bush and the Republican agenda that has done this country great damage.”

Smith’s bill had 30 Democratic co-sponsors.

— Joey Michalakes


Minnesota

The race between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and comedian Al Franken (D) for Coleman’s seat has taken to a back-and-forth battle over YouTube videos.

A group of liberal bloggers had initially accused Coleman’s wife, Laurie, an actress who spends much of her time in California, of having been edited into a commercial for her husband’s campaign, which shows her speaking in the foreground while the senator does chores in the background.

The Coleman campaign vehemently denied the charge and released outtakes that appear to show them in the same room.

But the Coleman campaign then went a step further, releasing a video of a man wearing an obviously fake Franken mask masquerading around Minnesota backdrops with intentionally crude video editing. The video seeks to undercut the Minnesota ties of Franken, who returned from New York shortly before announcing his candidacy, and fades out with the faux-Franken toting a thermos not of regular coffee, but a large Starbucks-esque latte order.

— M.O.


Mississippi

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is seeking to tie former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D-Miss.) to corruption.

The NRSC called on Musgrove, who is seeking to knock off Sen. Roger Wicker (R) this fall, to donate $110,000 in campaign funds from convicted trial lawyer Dickie Scruggs to Hurricane Katrina relief charities. Scruggs was convicted in March for trying to bribe a judge, and is set to be sentenced Friday.

“Musgrove has four days and counting to tell voters what he plans to do with Scruggs’s dirty cash,” NRSC spokeswoman Rebecca Fisher said in a statement Tuesday.

“This is [a] typical NRSC/D.C.-gotcha kind of game,” said Adam Bozzi, a spokesman for the Musgrove campaign. “Is the NRSC calling on any Republicans to give back money?”

Bozzi said Scruggs contributed to past Musgrove campaigns, but not to his Senate campaign, and that Republicans are using the Scruggs tie-in to obfuscate issues.

“The innuendo they throw around won’t change gas prices a penny,” Bozzi said.

— M.O.


Nebraska

The latest Rasmussen poll has former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns (R) well ahead of opponent Scott Kleeb (D) in the race to claim the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Chuck Hagel (R), who is not running for reelection.

The poll shows Johanns holding a 60-33 lead and a favorability rating of 73 percent. Both figures are improvements over the last Rasmussen poll, conducted shortly after Kleeb’s victory in the Democratic primary on May 13.

In that poll, Kleeb — who ran an unexpectedly competitive race in Nebraska’s conservative 3rd district in 2006 before falling by 10 points — managed to cut Johanns’s lead to 55-40.

— J.M.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-06-25.htmlO

[Adlai Stevenson]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 07/01/08 06:00 PM [ET]

Kentucky

Rep. Ron Lewis’s (R) seat might not be so safe after all.

Democrat David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie are virtually tied in their race to replace the retiring Lewis in Kentucky’s 2nd district, according to a new poll.

   
A SurveyUSA poll conducted this past weekend showed Boswell leads Guthrie, 47 percent to 44.

Nine percent of voters said they are undecided.

Lewis has represented the district since winning a special election in 1994. Since then, Lewis has never received less than 55 percent of the vote.

— Michael O’Brien


Maine

State Democrats this week continued their uphill battle to keep an Independent Senate candidate off the ballot.

The fight over Herb Hoffman’s candidacy for Senate now travels to the Maine Superior Court, after the Maine Democratic Party announced Monday that it would appeal a ruling that confirmed Hoffman’s spot on the ballot with incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) and challenger Rep. Tom Allen (D).

Last week, Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap upheld his office’s earlier finding that Hoffman had collected the 4,000 signatures required to guarantee a place on the ballot.

But the Democrats’ challenge alleged that Hoffman had collected some signatures twice and falsely claimed to witness signatures collected by others.

“It’s apparent that Tom Allen has gone from concerned to desperate,” said state GOP spokesman Jen Webber.

Even though Hoffman is a former Democrat, the Allen campaign said it did not think his candidacy would have a significant impact on the race.

“We feel really good about where we are,” said spokeswoman Carol Andrews.

— Joey Michalakes


New Jersey

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) appears to have a sizable advantage over former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R), leading 45 percent to 28 in a Fairleigh-Dickinson poll released last week.

The poll was conducted between June 17 and 22 and had a margin of error of 4 percent. Just more than a quarter of voters were undecided.

Equally ominous for Zimmer were poor name identification numbers, with 44 percent of voters polled saying they had never heard of him.

Zimmer ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 1996 against then-Rep. Robert Torricelli. Of those who had heard of him, 29 percent of voters said they had no opinion of him.

Zimmer spokesman Mark Duffy said the poll shows Lautenberg’s vulnerability, though. Despite easily weathering a primary challenge from Rep. Robert Andrews (D) a month ago, questions remain about the senator’s age. Lautenberg is 84.

“This poll and other polls show that voters want change,” Duffy said. “After 24 years in office, Lautenberg is below 50 percent.”

— M.O.


New York

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) waded into another primary on Monday, endorsing Iraq veteran Jon Powers in the race to replace Rep. Tom Reynolds (R).

Powers faces well-funded opponents in attorney Alice Kryzan and businessman Jack Davis.

Davis, a noted self-funder who has lost to Reynolds the last two cycles, last week won a case before the Supreme Court seeking to overturn the Millionaire’s Amendment, a provision that allows opponents of self-funders to raise money with higher per-donor limits.

The law could have helped Powers raise more money once Davis put enough money into his campaign.

Davis only lost to Reynolds by four percentage points in 2006.

The DCCC said the decision was based on the fact that Powers has been the pre-eminent choice of several major unions and members of New York’s congressional delegation.

Kryzan spokesman Mike Alfoni said: “We would be happy to comment, but we’re too busy raising money.”

The primary is set for Sept. 9. The winner will likely face Republican businessman Chris Lee.

The DCCC has a policy of publicly staying out of primaries, but it has strayed from that in recent weeks, adding two other candidates facing tough primaries to its Red to Blue program.

— Aaron Blake
 

Pennsylvania

The campaign of businessman Bob Roggio (D) went public with a poll this week to prove that it has a chance against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R). The poll comes a little over a week after the Gerlach campaign released a poll showing its candidate holding a 26-percentage-point lead.

The latest poll showed Gerlach ahead, 49 percent to 32, on the first ballot. But the Roggio campaign highlighted the incumbent’s net negative job approval rating and emphasized that after participants read a bio of Roggio prepared by the campaign, Roggio held a 45 percent to 38 percent lead.

The Gerlach campaign was skeptical of the results, saying that the “informed ballot” amounted to little more than a push-poll.

“After we’ve tested our issues against Roggio’s, it’s no longer close,” said Gerlach spokesman Mark Campbell. “Roggio makes [2006 challenger] Lois Murphy look like a moderate.”

— J.M.


Tennessee

Rep. David Davis (R-Tenn.) received an endorsement from the National Rifle Association (NRA) over challenger Phil Roe (R) last week.

Roe, who served in Korea and is also an NRA member, said the endorsement is just another inherent advantage incumbents have in elections: “I still have and will always respect the work of the NRA.”

Davis won a crowded primary with 22 percent of the vote in 2006, but this year he faces only Roe.

The primary is set for Aug. 7.

— David Matthews

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-07-01.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 07/09/08 06:53 PM [ET]

California

A new 527 called the Courage Campaign announced plans to launch a TV ad tying Rep. David Dreier (R) to President Bush.

The organization, which claims 100,000 members and aims to be California’s MoveOn.org, calls Dreier a “rubber stamp” and seeks to emphasize that the congressman has voted with the administration 93.6 percent of the time.

The ad will be funded on a rolling basis with contributions online.

“We will certainly have enough to do fairly significant cable buys next week,” said founder Rick Jacobs.

Dreier's campaign said the ad was a smear job.

"This ad is nothing more than an amateurish smear job by another 527 from outside the district that refuses to disclose its hidden agenda. This is precisely the type of unaccountable negative campaigning that prompted Sen. Obama's call to be wary of these shadowy groups," said Julie Vallante, a spokeswoman for Dreier's campaign.

Drier rebounded from a career-worst 54 percent of support in his 2004 campaign to be reelected in 2006, a tough year for Republicans, with 57 percent. He faces a well-funded challenger in Democrat Russ Warner, who raised $540,000 through late May.

— Michael O’Brien


Florida

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s (R) opponent says she has lost touch with her district, but the incumbent maintains a wide advantage in a new poll on her reelection bid.

Democrat Annette Taddeo’s campaign points to a letter Ros-Lehtinen sent to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on April 30. She asked FEMA to check the accuracy of flood maps that cover nearly 50,000 parcels of land in the Florida Keys.

The problem was that the flood maps were issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, not FEMA. Ros-Lehtinen sent a corrected version of the letter to Fish and Wildlife on May 15.

The Taddeo campaign said the mistake is evidence that Ros-Lehtinen is out of touch with her district, a charge the incumbent denies. Ros-Lehtinen said she is in regular communication with constituents, that she visits different groups often. She said she also hosts tele-town hall meetings and sends messages via e-mail.

“Right now what I hear is great disgust over our ever-skyrocketing gas prices, our sluggish economy, the record number of foreclosures in South Florida, specifically in my district,” Ros-Lehtinen said.

Poll numbers show Ros-Lehtinen enjoys strong support from her constituents. A poll issued by independent Bendixen & Associates put the congresswoman 27 points ahead, with a 58-31 lead. Eleven percent said they were undecided.

Her two South Florida Cuban-American colleagues, Republican Reps. Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, were only up by single digits, according to the poll.

“I’m keeping on message and have my ear to the ground to understand the needs of my constituents, and I humbly ask for their vote of confidence,” Ros-Lehtinen said.

All three Cuban-American incumbents have stronger challenges than they’ve faced in some time.

Taddeo appears the weakest, according to polls, but she raised $320,000 in the first quarter, including a $180,000 loan. Ros-Lehtinen collected $880,000 by March 31.

— Kristen Coulter


Illinois

Rep. Peter Roskam (R) on Wednesday filed a discharge petition seeking a House floor vote on a bipartisan energy bill.

House Republican leadership hailed Roskam, a target of Democrats this cycle, for his new legislative effort.

The discharge petition would bring a bill crafted by Reps. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) and John Shimkus (R-Ill.) to the floor if it attracts 218 supporters. The Boucher measure seeks to promote the development of clean coal-to-liquid technology.

Discharge petitions rarely get the necessary signatures but offer vulnerable members something to tout on the campaign trail. Roskam faces Iraq veteran Jill Morgenthaler.

In a release, House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) noted rising gasoline prices, stating, “I want to thank Rep. Roskam for bringing forth this crucial petition, and extend my gratitude to Reps. Shimkus and Boucher for coming together to produce a well-crafted, and very much needed, piece of bipartisan energy legislation.”

The Boucher bill has 51 co-sponsors, most of them Republicans.

Other targeted GOP members who have filed discharge petitions this year include Reps. Phil English (Pa.), Thelma Drake (Va.) and Randy Kuhl (N.Y.).

— Bob Cusack

Eleventh district candidate Martin Ozinga (R) says he raised over $800,000 during the second quarter, more than double the total of his opponent, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D), during the same period.

Ozinga was a latecomer to the race, entering only after the winner of the Feb. 5 Republican primary, Tim Baldermann, abruptly dropped out.

Democrats have targeted this open seat, currently held by retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R), for a possible takeover in the fall. They appeared in great position to do so, but Ozinga’s numbers should hearten Republicans.

Halvorson campaign manager Brian Doory emphasized she has raised $1.27 million to date and possessed over $900,000 cash on hand.

“We expect a vigorous campaign, and we’re going to have the resources we need to get our message out,” he said.

— Joey Michalakes

 

Louisiana

Former state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) will not seek a November rematch with Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) in the 6th district, announcing Tuesday that he is dropping out of the Sept. 6 GOP primary.

“It’s a very critical time in America and very important that our party unifies,” Jenkins told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s probably the only way we’re going to win.”

Cazayoux, a former state representative himself, defeated Jenkins 49-46 to win the seat in a special election on April 6. His victory was the first for Democrats in the district since 1974.

Jenkins’s candidacy was plagued by a number of controversies, and he was decried by Republicans even before the election as a weak candidate.

His exit leaves state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) as the likely challenger to Cazayoux in the fall. The filing deadline for all candidates is Friday, but Cassidy is not expected to face any serious primary opposition.

The Cazayoux campaign was unconcerned by Jenkins’s announcement, preferring instead to emphasize its own message.

“We’re focusing on getting out a positive message about Rep. Cazayoux,” said spokeswoman Katie Nee. “We’re less concerned about who we’re running against.”

— J.M.


New Mexico

Former Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich’s (D) campaign is playing up his centrist credentials for the general election, even though he had harsh words earlier in his campaign for centrist Democrats in Congress.

Heinrich suggested in a December 2007 questionnaire that members of the New Democrat and Blue Dog coalitions are actually closet Republicans.

“I can say without a doubt that I will not join the New Democrat or Blue Dog caucuses,” he said in a questionnaire filled out for the liberal blog Booman Tribune. “I believe that we need more and better Democrats in Congress. We need strong leaders who are willing to stand up, speak out and fight for our values. We don’t need more Republicans in Democratic clothing.”

As Democrats have won more and more conservative districts, the ranks of New Democrats and Blue Dogs have filled up with new members. Many Democrats running for Congress have played up Blue Dog support in order to burnish their centrist credentials.

Heinrich is running in a swing district, which has been a frequent battleground. A poll his campaign released this week showed the race a virtual tie.

Spokeswoman Rachel Wolin said Heinrich has a “strong, moderate record” of working across the aisle.

“In Congress, Martin will be an independent voice, continuing to bring people together while working to end the war in Iraq, provide affordable healthcare to New Mexico families, and honor America’s veterans,” Wolin said.

— Aaron Blake


North Carolina

Democratic Senate challenger Kay Hagan says she raised more than $1.6 million in the second quarter, leaving her with $1.2 million cash on hand in her campaign against incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R).

Hagan has surprised some in Washington with her fundraising and is slowly showing herself to be a formidable challenger to Dole.

Dole’s campaign has not released its numbers.

— David Matthews


Tennessee

Former state Sen. Tom Leatherwood’s (R) campaign released a poll Tuesday claiming it has closed the gap in its primary challenge to incumbent Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R).

The poll, taken in late June, shows Blackburn leading Leatherwood 48-37, which the Leatherwood campaign says is a net gain of 16 points for their candidate since March. The district-wide poll, taken June 28-29, has a 5.6 percent margin of error.

“It’s pretty bogus,” said a Blackburn campaign official. “The guy that is doing his polling is also on his finance committee, which might tell you something.”

The primary will be held on Aug. 7.

— M.O.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-07-09.html

[MarkWarner08]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 07/09/08 06:53 PM [ET]

New Mexico

“I can say without a doubt that I will not join the New Democrat or Blue Dog caucuses,” he said in a questionnaire filled out for the liberal blog Booman Tribune. “I believe that we need more and better Democrats in Congress. We need strong leaders who are willing to stand up, speak out and fight for our values. We don’t need more Republicans in Democratic clothing.”

— Aaron Blake


http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-07-09.html

Reason #3545646 why Martin Heinrich is a fatally flawed candidate. Running as a far-leftist in 50/50 district is not a smart strategy.

Memo to Henrich:  Denigrating potential colleagues as "Republicans in Democratic clothing" will not ingratiate him to Democratic leaders. If he ever gets to Washington, Heinrich will be relegated to the dreaded  House Small Business Committee for the length of his tenure.

Earlier today, The Christian Science Monitor  published an article about Democratic House challengers running community-focused campaigns. At the end of the article, Cook Political Report House editor David Wasserman said this,  ""Perriello has a great profile in a very liberal district in Boulder, Colo., but that's not Virginia's Fifth." That quote aptly fits Heinrich as well.

[Mr.Phips]

By The Hill Staff
Posted: 07/09/08 06:53 PM [ET]

New Mexico

“I can say without a doubt that I will not join the New Democrat or Blue Dog caucuses,” he said in a questionnaire filled out for the liberal blog Booman Tribune. “I believe that we need more and better Democrats in Congress. We need strong leaders who are willing to stand up, speak out and fight for our values. We don’t need more Republicans in Democratic clothing.”

— Aaron Blake


http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-2008-07-09.html

Reason #3545646 why Martin Heinrich is a fatally flawed candidate. Running as a far-leftist in 50/50 district is not a smart strategy.

Memo to Henrich:  Denigrating potential colleagues as "Republicans in Democratic clothing" will not ingratiate him to Democratic leaders. If he ever gets to Washington, Heinrich will be relegated to the dreaded  House Small Business Committee for the length of his tenure.

Earlier today, The Christian Science Monitor  published an article about Democratic House challengers running community-focused campaigns. At the end of the article, Cook Political Report House editor David Wasserman said this,  ""Perriello has a great profile in a very liberal district in Boulder, Colo., but that's not Virginia's Fifth." That quote aptly fits Heinrich as well.

Their are plenty of very Conservative Republicans that are elected or were elected to 50/50 or even Dem leaning districts for many years.  Steve Chabot, Anne Northup, Jim Nussle, and Bob Beauprez all come to mind. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...but this district is certainly not a normal 50-50 district...

[Mr.Phips]

...but this district is certainly not a normal 50-50 district...

NM-01?  NM-01 actually leans Dem.  It voted three points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NM-01?

Yes. Very odd district.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...which is why it's always had a Republican Rep. since it's creation...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Almost entirely irrelevant.

[Mr.Phips]

NM-01?

Yes. Very odd district.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...which is why it's always had a Republican Rep. since it's creation...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Its always had a GOP rep because the district didnt start to trend Dem until the early 2000's.  In 2004 it was D+3, in 2000 D+0, and in 1996 it was R+1.