AZ: Rasmussen: McCain up 9 in his home state

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I don't see why this is "embarrassing".  Algore lost his home state.  Not every candidate comes from a state that totally shares their political identity -- in this case, Arizona is mostly Republican but has a decent sized Dem base that is going to hold GOP numbers down.  I don't see what the big deal is.  Home state advantage just isn't what it used to be.

[Flying Dog]

I wonder if he'll do better than Kerry did in 04?

[Alcon]

I don't see why this is "embarrassing".  Algore lost his home state.  Not every candidate comes from a state that totally shares their political identity -- in this case, Arizona is mostly Republican but has a decent sized Dem base that is going to hold GOP numbers down.  I don't see what the big deal is.  Home state advantage just isn't what it used to be.

Agreed.   McCain is polling consistently around +10.  If Arizona weren't such an old-leaning and GOP state, he'd probably be up in the low single digits, demographically.  A 7+-point homestate advantage is about what you'd expect in a race that's leaning Obama, so this really isn't especially shabby.

Of course, "it's closer than Bush v. Kerry" does make for good bragging material.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Would Obama be winning Arizona if he weren't running against McCain?

it would be very similar to New Mexico and Colorado if McCain weren't running. Rememeber Clinton won here in 96.

no, it's more Republican than either of those states. Not a fortress like Utah or Alabama, but it leans Republican in a 50/50 race. However, the political dynamics of the state are slowly changing as Hispanic migration increases and liberal transplants move in from California and the Northeast. I expect it to be a swing state in 2012 or 2016, but not this year.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My predictions:

ARIZONA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama
  2% Others

[Tender Branson]

yeah, I did get 49+40=89.

But McCain should be stronger - even in that circumstance. It basically reflects that poll which shows that in spite of all the acrimony in the Dem race - more Dems were satisfied with Obama than Reps with McCain.

It´s interesting that Obama does better than Kerry, despite losing Independents by 13 as well as losing more Democrats to McCain than winning Republicans from McCain. I don´t know the internals of this poll, but I think that Democrats and Republicans must account for about the same percentage to get these results. Lets compare this July 2004 SurveyUSA poll from AZ and SurveyUSA's February survey. In the 2004 poll, the composition was 44R, 31D and 25I - about what the 2004 Exit Poll from AZ showed (44-30-26). The July 2004 poll also showed Bush beating Kerry 53-41, which is about as accurate as it can get. Their February 2008 poll meanwhile suggested a composition of 41R, 37D - with McCain leading Obama by 12 then. The 2004 AZ exit poll showed a 14-point turnout advantage for the Republicans, the 2006 exit poll a 8-9% advantage. Could it be that in the last 2 years Democrats narrowed the gap to lower single digits ? If yes, these Rasmussen results make perfect sense, if not and turnout is like 2004 or 2006, I think they are heavily underestimating McCain.

After a random check of my E-mails a couple of minutes ago, I saw that Rasmussen finally responded to one of my requests concerning this poll. I asked him what the party identification of this poll was like:

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[CARLHAYDEN]

Notice, six per cent for Barr, more than "not sure."

McCain is working hard to send voters to Barr!

[Tender Branson]

Notice, six per cent for Barr, more than "not sure."

McCain is working hard to send voters to Barr!

Not "Barr", it was about "Generic Other" = (Barr, Nader, McKinney, Generic Protest candidate ...)

[CARLHAYDEN]

Notice, six per cent for Barr, more than "not sure."

McCain is working hard to send voters to Barr!

Not "Barr", it was about "Generic Other" = (Barr, Nader, McKinney, Generic Protest candidate ...)

Please read the wording of Q. 2.

It states "If the Presidential Election were heod today, would you vote for Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama or Libertarian Bob Barr?"

[NOVA Green]

Go Barr!!! Go Mckinney!!!!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Would Obama be winning Arizona if he weren't running against McCain?

Yeah, or dead even, like New Mexico y Colorado.