NH: ARG: Obama defeats McCain by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 5% among Democrats (31% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 74% to 10% among Republicans (31% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 47% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 54% to 32%.

Obama leads McCain 48% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),Obama leads McCain 53% to 37%.

43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%, with 14% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 46% to 38% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 62% to 16% among independent (undeclared) voters.

[Verily]

Ah, one can hope. Now Rasmussen has to get around to polling NH...

[The Mikado]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 5% among Democrats (31% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 74% to 10% among Republicans (31% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 47% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 54% to 32%.

Obama leads McCain 48% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),Obama leads McCain 53% to 37%.

43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%, with 14% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 46% to 38% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 62% to 16% among independent (undeclared) voters.

Well, it looks like Obama will have to make up New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes elsewhere...too bad.

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 5% among Democrats (31% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 74% to 10% among Republicans (31% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 47% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 54% to 32%.

Obama leads McCain 48% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),Obama leads McCain 53% to 37%.

43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%, with 14% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 46% to 38% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 62% to 16% among independent (undeclared) voters.

Well, it looks like Obama will have to make up New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes elsewhere...too bad.

Huh? Snark??

[The Mikado]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Barack Obama leads John McCain 89% to 5% among Democrats (31% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 74% to 10% among Republicans (31% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

Obama leads McCain 48% to 47% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women, Obama leads 54% to 32%.

Obama leads McCain 48% to 41% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (55% of likely voters),Obama leads McCain 53% to 37%.

43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%, with 14% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 46% to 38% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 62% to 16% among independent (undeclared) voters.

Well, it looks like Obama will have to make up New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes elsewhere...too bad.

Huh? Snark??

My rule of thumb with ARG polling is to reverse the winner and loser.

[TheresNoMoney]

The crosstabs actually make pretty good sense, especially the party ID in this state. Their party ID breakdown is pretty much spot on. I AM a little skeptical that Obama leads among those 50 and older, though.

Still, ARG is the pollster I trust the least, they have a horrible track record.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

There is not one other poll that shows party loyalty on the Dem side that high. 

Do they seriously just pull numbers out their ass? 

[Verily]

There is not one other poll that shows party loyalty on the Dem side that high. 

Do they seriously just pull numbers out their ass? 

Rasmussen's poll of Maine has higher Democratic loyalty than this one.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama will win independents in NH by a considerable margin (most lean slightly left), which is why he is a heavy favorite to win in NH. Independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans by a good amount in this state.

[TheresNoMoney]

Party ID in New Hampshire as of 6/08:

Democrat     264,000 (30.56%)
Republican   269,000 (31.13%)
Undeclared   331,00   (38.31%)

Link

ARG used the exact current partisan ID for their poll, so props to them for that.

[Eraserhead]

It's an ARG poll. Let's not read anything into this one way or the other.

[Verily]

There is not one other poll that shows party loyalty on the Dem side that high. 

Do they seriously just pull numbers out their ass? 

Rasmussen's poll of Maine has higher Democratic loyalty than this one.

And... ARG apparently did a very good job. Or they at least agree with Rasmussen, who also has party loyalty higher on the Democratic side than the Republican in NH. This should not be all that surprising given that New Hampshire is in New England.

"Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Obama leads McCain 50% to 35%. Those percentages are nearly identical to those from the last survey. Obama is backed by 81% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans in New Hampshire. McCain’s support comes from 75% of Republican voters and 12% of Democratic voters."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election