Fleming - 47
Carmouche - 45
Kelley (I) - 3
Bowen (I) - 1
Turn-out in a stand-alone special election, where there are not other contests on the ballot to draw voters to the polls, is uniquely difficult to forecast. If black turn-out is 24%, it's Fleming 48%, Carmouche 43%. If black turn-out is 30%, it's Carmouche 46%, Fleming 45%. Fleming has a Plus 13 Favorability. Carmouche has a Plus 16 Favorability. Barack Obama has Net Zero Favorability. 44% approve of the job President Bush is doing. 14% approve of the job the US Congress is doing.
900 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/17/08 and 11/18/08, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 648 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the December 4 election.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b5ea35c6-a0a0-4f6c-93ef-c5c02dec336d