Predict AZ and IL

[The Mikado]

How will the homestate advantage work in each case?

For Illinois, I predict a 61/38 Obama lashing of McCain.  I know that may seem optimistic (it is the same margin Bush won TX in 2004, not why I chose it), but Obama has quite a bit of love from his homestate Democrats, IL has trended blue pretty thoroughly the last decade, and I feel that 61/38 is a reasonable margin.

Arizona will be closer, but not overly so.  Right now I'm thinking something like 56/42 for McCain.  It's interesting to remember that McCain didn't break 50% in his homestate Republican primary this cycle.
If Obama is spending large amounts of time and money in NV, NM, and CO, some of that will splash back on Arizona.  In short, while McCain will improve on Bush's 2004 result, it will only be a marginal improvement.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Arizona:
McCain: 58
Obama: 39
Barr: 3

Illinois:
Obama: 62
McCain: 35
Barr: 3

[Hash]

I read somewhere that a sizable part of Arizonans aren't overly fond of McCain. (I'm saying he'll lose, though, far from it).

[Hash]

Arizona:
McCain: 58
Obama: 39
Barr: 3

Illinois:
Obama: 62
McCain: 35
Barr: 3

If Barr does poll that well nationally, I'd expect him to poll 3% in AZ, but lower in Illinois. The Libertarian Party is a tad stronger in AZ than IL, IIRC.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Illinois:
Obama 61
McCain 38

Arizona:
McCain 57
Obama 42

[Ronnie]

Arizona:

McCain: 57%
Obama: 40%

Illinois:

Obama: 61%
McCain: 37%

[Eraserhead]

I'll take a shot for fun. Interestingly they both voted for Kerry/Bush by about 11 points each last time.

IL

Obama 66%
McCain 33%
Barr 0%
Nader 0%

AZ

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Barr 2%
Nader 0%

[Torie]

I'll take a shot for fun. Interestingly they both voted for Kerry/Bush by about 11 points each last time.

IL

Obama 66%
McCain 33%
Barr 0%
Nader 0%

AZ

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Barr 2%
Nader 0%

You've got McCain running in Illinois almost as poorly as Alan Keyes did in his Senate race!  LOL.

[Boris]

IL:

Obama: 58.41%
McCain: 41.20%

AZ:

McCain: 57.06%
Obama: 42.71%

[Torie]

IL:

Obama: 58.41%
McCain: 41.20%

AZ:

McCain: 57.06%
Obama: 42.71%

Boris, you're a genius!  Some numbers that I find sensible at last (well McCain if he is running even nationally, might do a tad better in Arizona, but maybe not)!

[King]

Obama will win IL and come in 2nd place in AZ.
McCain will win AZ and come in 2nd place in IL.


Anybody willing to bet against that prediction is a damn fool.

[Torie]

Obama will win IL and come in 2nd place in AZ.
McCain will win AZ and come in 2nd place in IL.


Anybody willing to bet against that prediction is a damn fool.

LOL.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'll take a shot for fun. Interestingly they both voted for Kerry/Bush by about 11 points each last time.

IL

Obama 66%
McCain 33%
Barr 0%
Nader 0%

AZ

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Barr 2%
Nader 0%

LOL @ this prediction in Illinois!

I think McCain barely gets over 40%. Obama does have a ceiling there lower than 70% and McCain's floor will be nowhere near 33%.

I'd say Obama wins Illinois 59-40 and McCain wins Arizona 57-42.

[Sam Spade]

In a 50-50 election:

IL
Obama 60
McCain 40

AZ
McCain 58
Obama 42

Include 3rd parties at your own risk.

Boris' prediction, which is a little more conservative, is also reasonable.  Other than that...

[Eraserhead]

I'll take a shot for fun. Interestingly they both voted for Kerry/Bush by about 11 points each last time.

IL

Obama 66%
McCain 33%
Barr 0%
Nader 0%

AZ

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Barr 2%
Nader 0%

LOL @ this prediction in Illinois!

I think McCain barely gets over 40%. Obama does have a ceiling there lower than 70% and McCain's floor will be nowhere near 33%.

I'd say Obama wins Illinois 59-40 and McCain wins Arizona 57-42.

My prediction wasn't made assuming it will be a 50-50 election. If it is, then mine would be closer to Spade's.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IL:

Obama: 58.41%
McCain: 41.20%

AZ:

McCain: 57.06%
Obama: 42.71%

I pretty much agree with that

[Adlai Stevenson]

Obama gets at least over 60% of the vote in Illinois, ditto McCain with over 55% in Arizona.  My predictions (for now):

ILLINOIS PRESIDENT -
60% (D) Obama
38% (R) McCain


ARIZONA PRESIDENT -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama

[CARLHAYDEN]

As of June 8, 2008, and subject to revision:

Candidate          Party          Arizona          Illinois

Obama            Democrat         38%             59%
McCain           Republican         56                37
Barr                Libertarian          4                  2
Nader           Independent         1                  1
Baldwin       Constitutional         *                  *
McKinney           Green               *                  *

[RJ]

Predicting 2 states almost 5 months away from the election? Wow, not sure on this but here it goes:

IL:

D: 56.5
R: 42.3

AZ:

R: 56.8
D: 42.0

Bear in mind Bush took AZ by a wider margin than Kerry took IL in 2004.