Early Voting.

[??????????]

Every county in Florida will have 3-4 polling places set up beginning October 16th for early voting in the general election on November 2nd. What effect if any will this have on who gets Floridas EVs? In our county the libraries will be used as polling places and then closed and the regular polling places will be used on November 2nd.

[Blue Rectangle]

Tough, tough call.  I had to vote no difference because I came up with to many points in favor of each side.
Early voting helps turnout among:
--Seniors (helps Kerry), but this group has high turnout anyway, so the change might not be that big
--low income urban voters (helps Kerry)
--rural voters (helps Bush)
--business travelers and professionals with irregular hours (helps Bush)
--middle class families with two incomes and kids in school who have trouble finding time to vote on a weekday (helps Bush)

Conventional wisdom says these kinds of voting changes favor Dems, but I'm not so sure.

[??????????]

Tough, tough call.  I had to vote no difference because I came up with to many points in favor of each side.
Early voting helps turnout among:
--Seniors (helps Kerry), but this group has high turnout anyway, so the change might not be that big
--low income urban voters (helps Kerry)
--rural voters (helps Bush)
--business travelers and professionals with irregular hours (helps Bush)
--middle class families with two incomes and kids in school who have trouble finding time to vote on a weekday (helps Bush)

Conventional wisdom says these kinds of voting changes favor Dems, but I'm not so sure.

Two weeks before? Thats a huge amount of time. I voted in the August 31st primaries today and it was pretty crowded.

[Blue Rectangle]

Colorado had early voting in in 2000.  They had a couple places in the city where you could vote by touch-screen.  I voted this way.  I think they had punchcards and the regular poll locations on election day, but I'm not sure.  Early voting was available for the primary this year, but I voted on election day via fill-in-the-bubble/scantron at the local polling place.  The system in 2000 didn't seem to hurt Bush or Allard in CO--Allard beat the poll numbers for a surprise win and Bush exceeded expectations, I believe.

Here's a thought, early voting nationwide in 2000 would have probably won Bush the PV; the DUI scandal hurt him by 2-3 points.  Of course, we all know the Dems would have just dropped that bomb earlier if everyone had early voting, but the effect still would have been lessened.

So here's my revised comment on early voting:
Early voting will help whoever is running against the guy who is relying on an October surprise to win.

[© tweed]

No difference

[??????????]

Colorado had early voting in in 2000.  They had a couple places in the city where you could vote by touch-screen.  I voted this way.  I think they had punchcards and the regular poll locations on election day, but I'm not sure.  Early voting was available for the primary this year, but I voted on election day via fill-in-the-bubble/scantron at the local polling place.  The system in 2000 didn't seem to hurt Bush or Allard in CO--Allard beat the poll numbers for a surprise win and Bush exceeded expectations, I believe.

Here's a thought, early voting nationwide in 2000 would have probably won Bush the PV; the DUI scandal hurt him by 2-3 points.  Of course, we all know the Dems would have just dropped that bomb earlier if everyone had early voting, but the effect still would have been lessened.

So here's my revised comment on early voting:
Early voting will help whoever is running against the guy who is relying on an October surprise to win.

Even two weeks out?

[zorkpolitics]

I am opposed to early voting and to absentee ballots, unless one has a reason not to be in their home location.

The election should be a snap shot of the electorate on a given day so that everyone has the same information to decide who to vote for.

[??????????]

I am opposed to early voting and to absentee ballots, unless one has a reason not to be in their home location.

The election should be a snap shot of the electorate on a given day so that everyone has the same information to decide who to vote for.

I think voting should be moved to Saturdays to make it easier for every citizen to vote.

[Nation]

I think voting should be moved to Saturdays to make it easier for every citizen to vote.

I believe Ross Perot thought that as well. It does seem odd we always vote on Tuesdays. Another suggestion would be to make Election Day a national holiday to facilitate voting.

No, that would make too much sense

[??????????]

I think voting should be moved to Saturdays to make it easier for every citizen to vote.

I believe Ross Perot thought that as well. It does seem odd we always vote on Tuesdays. Another suggestion would be to make Election Day a national holiday to facilitate voting.

No, that would make too much sense

A lot of employeers would go nuts if they had to pay their employees for another holiday.

[© tweed]

A lot of employeers would go nuts if they had to pay their employees for another holiday.

It's only one damn day.  They'll be okay.

[jimrtex]

In Texas, conventional wisdom is that early voting does not have an effect on turnout, but rather is a matter of convenience for people who would have voted on election day if that was their only option.

In Texas, early voting includes both voting by personal appearance and  by mail.  Anyone may vote by personal appearance, but early voting by mail is by cause only: age (over 65); disablity; confinement in jail; or absence from the county (on election day and throughout the early voting period).

In the 2000 general election, 38.9% of votes were cast by early voters, in the 2002 general election, which included both a senatorial election, and a gubernatorial election, 35.9% of votes were early votes.

In 2002, of the 9 top statewide races, 5 GOP candidates received a greater percentage of their vote from early vote than the Democrat candidate, and 4 received less:
Senator: Cornyn 36.7%, Kirk 35.0%
Governor: Perry 36.6%, Sanchez 35.6%
Lt.Governor: Dewhurst 36.1%, Sharp 36.6%
AG: Abbot 36.0%, Watson 36.8%
Controller: Rylander 36.2, Akins 36.8%
Land Commissioner: Patterson 37.3%, Bernsen 36.0%
Ag Commissioner: Combs 36.1%, Ramsay 36.9%
RRC: Williams 37.0%, Boyles 36.1%
Chief Justice: Phillips 37.0%, Baker 35.8%

Whether someone votes early varies greatly by county, from around 25% to over 50%.  An interesting case is the Democrat senatorial primary and runoff in 2002.  Turnout for the primary was 974 thousand.  The percentage of early vote received by each candidate was:
  Morales, 35.0%
  Kirk, 23.0%
  Bentsen, 30.5%

It the runoff. turnout was 670 thousand (about 64% of the primary).  But the percentage received by each candidate via early votes was about the same:
  Morales, 34.9%
  Kirk, 25.3%.