Which states will have unanimous county results?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

For Obama:
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii

For McCain:
Oklahoma
Utah
Alaska

[Torie]

Must also be taken into account that most of those uber-Dem Appalachian counties where Obama got clobbered in the primary are machine counties. Looking at Elliot, KY for example, if anyone thinks Obama will lose this (and thus become the first Democratic candidate in the history of the state of Kentucky to do so), ask yourself: Is Obama that much worse for the county than McGovern?

McGovern was and is a WASP, and the son of a minister to boot (Methodist, which granted is not as "good" as Baptist, but isn't that far down the tail of the bell curve)

If there's one thing West Virginia hates more than a Negro, it's a Southern Baptist.
They belong either to the historically northern wings of the baptists, methodists or presbyterians there, or to tiny one-chapel pentecostal etc churches, or to none at all. Or if they migrated to the state in the first quarter of the twentieth century when it last boomed, they're catholic.

Good points, which I should have recalled regarding religious affiliations. I think West Virginia is the one state in the union, or one of the few, where Methodists are dominant I think.

Actually, upon further research, there is a southern baptist zone in WV, which may help to explain some of the political divides in the state over the years.

[Stranger in a strange land]

For McCain:
Oklahoma
Utah

For Obama:
Hawaii
Connecticut
Rhode Island

[War on Want]

McCain:
Oklahoma

Obama:
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
possibly Vermont
possibly Maine

[Хahar 🤔]

For Obama:
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii

For McCain:
Oklahoma
Utah
Alaska

Alaska? Anchorage will almost certainly flip.

[Alcon]

Alaska? Anchorage will almost certainly flip.

I doubt that.  Eagle River is a very conservative place, still likely enough to outweigh downtown and the Rogers Park area.  But, at minimum, Juneau will stay Dem.

[nclib]

For McCain:
Alaska

Alaska doesn't have county results, but if we go by legislative districts, I think Gore won one in 2000, even with Nader getting 10% statewide.

[nclib]

Torie, do you have a larger version of the map that you posted (or can you give the color key)?

[Alcon]

For McCain:
Alaska

Alaska doesn't have county results, but if we go by legislative districts, I think Gore won one in 2000, even with Nader getting 10% statewide.

Gore won the 3rd, the central Juneau district, 45-38-14.  In 2004, it was 59-37.  It's not flipping.

In 2004, Kerry also carried a downtown Anchorage district (#23), 53-43.  Unfortunately the district was re-shuffled since 2000, but it may have been the one Gore only lost by 11 votes (then the 16th).

There were also margins of less than 5% at:

- District 8, West Fairbanks and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, 49-47 Bush
- District 25, Anchorage/East Spenard, 50-46 Bush
- District 26, Anchorage/Turnagain/Inlet View, 49-48 Bush

I think it's pretty much a sure bet that Obama will carry at least one district, and I can't see him losing the Borough and City of Juneau either.  The other Juneau district is fairly Republican-leaning, but not Republican-leaning enough.

[Хahar 🤔]

Alaska? Anchorage will almost certainly flip.

I doubt that.  Eagle River is a very conservative place, still likely enough to outweigh downtown and the Rogers Park area.  But, at minimum, Juneau will stay Dem.

Oh, yes, I forgot about Juneau.

[Torie]

Torie, do you have a larger version of the map that you posted (or can you give the color key)?

Here is a link to the larger map I hope. In any event, green is methodist, and red is baptist, and blue is Catholic. It is a code for which religion has the largest percentage of adherents in each county.

[WalterMitty]

I'm not 100% convinced that Obama will win Plymouth and Worcester in MA but it's still probably more likely that he will than he won't.

he *should* hold all in RI

Maine is somewhat of an outside shot

Essex could move in VT

plymouth is one of the more republican counties in ma, but ive little doubt it will go obama in this race.  it is very suburban and infested with handwringers.

worcester county is likely solid obama as well.

the county to watch in mass is barnstable.  it is the most republican county in the state, and it has a very large elderly population.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

For Obama: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hawaii

For McCain: Oklahoma, possibly Utah

[minionofmidas]

For McCain:
Alaska

Alaska doesn't have county results, but if we go by legislative districts, I think Gore won one in 2000, even with Nader getting 10% statewide.

Gore won the 3rd, the central Juneau district, 45-38-14.  In 2004, it was 59-37.  It's not flipping.

In 2004, Kerry also carried a downtown Anchorage district (#23), 53-43.  Unfortunately the district was re-shuffled since 2000, but it may have been the one Gore only lost by 11 votes (then the 16th).

There were also margins of less than 5% at:

- District 8, West Fairbanks and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, 49-47 Bush
- District 25, Anchorage/East Spenard, 50-46 Bush
- District 26, Anchorage/Turnagain/Inlet View, 49-48 Bush

I think it's pretty much a sure bet that Obama will carry at least one district, and I can't see him losing the Borough and City of Juneau either.  The other Juneau district is fairly Republican-leaning, but not Republican-leaning enough.

Kerry also won the Borough and City of Sitka by a couple of votes.

[minionofmidas]

Must also be taken into account that most of those uber-Dem Appalachian counties where Obama got clobbered in the primary are machine counties. Looking at Elliot, KY for example, if anyone thinks Obama will lose this (and thus become the first Democratic candidate in the history of the state of Kentucky to do so), ask yourself: Is Obama that much worse for the county than McGovern?

McGovern was and is a WASP, and the son of a minister to boot (Methodist, which granted is not as "good" as Baptist, but isn't that far down the tail of the bell curve)

If there's one thing West Virginia hates more than a Negro, it's a Southern Baptist.
They belong either to the historically northern wings of the baptists, methodists or presbyterians there, or to tiny one-chapel pentecostal etc churches, or to none at all. Or if they migrated to the state in the first quarter of the twentieth century when it last boomed, they're catholic.

Good points, which I should have recalled regarding religious affiliations. I think West Virginia is the one state in the union, or one of the few, where Methodists are dominant I think.

Actually, upon further research, there is a southern baptist zone in WV, which may help to explain some of the political divides in the state over the years.

That's all Baptists. The American Baptists outnumber the Southern Baptists by a fair margin, more than two to one IIRC (though you're right in saying those have a presence too and I was exaggerating on purpose. )

[Verily]

Alaska? Anchorage will almost certainly flip.

I doubt that.  Eagle River is a very conservative place, still likely enough to outweigh downtown and the Rogers Park area.  But, at minimum, Juneau will stay Dem.

I thought Anchorage voted for Kerry? Or maybe I'm thinking of Gore? Anyway, yes, no way Juneau flips to McCain, so Alaska is out.

Basically everything has already been covered here. A more interesting question might be which states Obama wins a majority of counties in. In 2004, it was Hawaii, New Jersey and all of the states of New England. None of those are likely to flip, so the question is then whether Obama can flip other states. Delaware maybe could, but probably not. Washington might if Obama really lives up to where he's currently polling there. Iowa maybe, too, if Obama wins it by five points as polls currently suggest; Iowa is pretty uniform. Same goes for Wisconsin.

[Alcon]

Only one Anchorage district voted for Kerry, and it was a pretty narrow win.  The Eagle River district alone (Bush broke 70%) blows it out of the water.  Anchorage is a conservative town.

Gore's only district win was the central Juneau district.  Actually, Bush won Juneau in 2000 thanks to Nader.

[Torie]

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Lewis, you weren't effing around with the Torie man now were you?