Field Poll: Californians support same-sex marriage, reject Nov. referendum

[Tender Branson]

SACRAMENTO – A new poll finds that for the first time in the state's history, a slim majority of voters supports same-sex marriage, which the state Supreme Court declared legal this month.

According to the nonpartisan Field Poll, 51 percent of California registered voters favor allowing same-sex couples to marry, 42 percent are opposed and 7 percent have no opinion.

Support for same-sex marriage has steadily increased during the 30 years that the Field Poll has surveyed voters on the issue. But this is the first time more voters expressed support than opposition.



“This is in many ways a historic poll,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “It's a very significant moment.”

The poll also found voters are not inclined to support an amendment to the California Constitution banning same-sex marriage, such as the one targeted for the November ballot. Only 40 percent of those surveyed said they favored such a measure, 54 percent were opposed and 6 percent had no opinion.



The survey showed big differences in opinion on keeping same-sex marriage legal. Supporters include younger voters, Democrats, liberals and residents of Los Angeles or the San Francisco Bay Area. Opposed were older voters, Republicans, conservatives, residents of the Central Valley and Southern California counties besides Los Angeles, including San Diego and Orange counties.

Women and men support allowing same-sex marriage, though men less so. Women are in favor, 53 percent to 39 percent, with 8 percent having no opinion. Support among men is 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent having no opinion.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20080528-9999-1n28field.html#name

[Tender Branson]

[Torie]

This isn't much of a surprise really. The tipping point factor holding it back before was the Hispanic vote.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Age factor not surprising at all

[CultureKing]

Age factor not surprising at all

agreed though it probably is a large reason why the electorate has gotten so much more gay-rights friendly, as more young people come of age to vote they change the demographics of this voting issue.

[Sam Spade]

Interestingly, the SUSA poll done on this a couple of weeks ago said the exact opposite (52-36 in favor).  My point is to be careful in making conclusions from one poll.

Still, historically, ballot referendums tend to lose support of time, not gain support, so we'll see.

[ilikeverin]

Ah, the good old "default option is the one we're going with".

[Verily]

Interestingly, the SUSA poll done on this a couple of weeks ago said the exact opposite (52-36 in favor).  My point is to be careful in making conclusions from one poll.

Still, historically, ballot referendums tend to lose support of time, not gain support, so we'll see.

I would trust the Field Poll over anyone in CA, especially someone with a dodgy polling record outside of primaries like SUSA. (Of course, some of it might be the way the questions were phrased. I seem to recall the SUSA question being long and meandering.)

[Sam Spade]

Interestingly, the SUSA poll done on this a couple of weeks ago said the exact opposite (52-36 in favor).  My point is to be careful in making conclusions from one poll.

Still, historically, ballot referendums tend to lose support of time, not gain support, so we'll see.

I would trust the Field Poll over anyone in CA, especially someone with a dodgy polling record outside of primaries like SUSA. (Of course, some of it might be the way the questions were phrased. I seem to recall the SUSA question being long and meandering.)

I wouldn't trust either.  Especially at this point in the season.  And especially with only two polls on the subject.  My comments were meant to be, as usual, a generic polling observation.  And a generic popular referendum observation.  Both of which tend to be forgotten when people wish to read results that they want to see.

The SUSA poll question read:  Do you support? Or do you oppose amending the state constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman?

Therefore, the only significant addition to the Field poll question was: "... thus barring marriage between gay and lesbian couples".  I don't consider the difference between "amending" and "changing" to have any significant importance.

Anyway, the key group in any same-sex marriage amendment vote will be the Hispanics.  Let's see how they view the issue as time goes on.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hmm. Interesting. My parents will vote for the referendum, of course.

[Eraserhead]

Good.

[NDN]

I hope this is accurate.

[Sbane]

Hmm. Interesting. My parents will vote for the referendum, of course.

GHEYYY.... Yeah I think it will pass. A lot of asians and latinos will vote for it combined with the white conservative vote. O well.......

[Cubby]

Sam, no offense, but you don't have any credibility on any gay-related issues after the way you've treated Josh in the past.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Sam, no offense, but you don't have any credibility on any gay-related issues after the way you've treated Josh in the past.

I think that's cause Josh has no set of ideological priniciples, nothing to do with being gay

[Padfoot]

Age factor not surprising at all

No but its highly encouraging nonetheless.  With those kinds of trends this will be a dead issue in 10 years.

[Cubby]

Sam, no offense, but you don't have any credibility on any gay-related issues after the way you've treated Josh in the past.

I think that's cause Josh has no set of ideological priniciples, nothing to do with being gay

That may be true, but once you call someone a f**, its kind of a big deal.