Could Clinton still win?

[TheWildCard]

If there is one thing I have learned from being a Republican it is never underestimate a Clinton. I'm not saying that she'll win but given the track record of the Clintons it is dangerous to assume that she will not.

[Frodo]

No.

[J. J.]

Yes, she can, but it will be done at the convention in a back room, and at the hands of the superdelegates.

Yes, she is going to attempt seating the FL/MI delegation.  In theory, at this point, she would get between a 78 seat net gain, to a 178 seat gain in elected delegates from that.

That is one of the reasons I've said that Obama really should try to get those super delegates to announce ASAP.

Obama isn't going to allow any such delegates to be seated if it threatens his position, and the Florida and Michigan delegates cannot vote on the floor as to their own fate. It is really quite over, absent a mega scandal.

He can't afford not to.  It will lead to a floor fight, prologue the entire affair, and give him with growing reputation of being "Obama the Disenfranchiser."  It will probably cost him MI in the Fall and there will a whisper campaign that the election was "stolen" by him.

[perdedor]

The only way in which Clinton could still win the nomination is if the remaining super delegates come overwhelmingly in her favor. That's unlikely to happen, given the backlash that would ensue. Last night, Obama captured the majority of pledged delegates...which, in essence, makes Clinton mathematically irrelevant.

To the general election!

[Flying Dog]

Yes, she can, but it will be done at the convention in a back room, and at the hands of the superdelegates.

Yes, she is going to attempt seating the FL/MI delegation.  In theory, at this point, she would get between a 78 seat net gain, to a 178 seat gain in elected delegates from that.

That is one of the reasons I've said that Obama really should try to get those super delegates to announce ASAP.

Obama isn't going to allow any such delegates to be seated if it threatens his position, and the Florida and Michigan delegates cannot vote on the floor as to their own fate. It is really quite over, absent a mega scandal.

He can't afford not to.  It will lead to a floor fight, prologue the entire affair, and give him with growing reputation of being "Obama the Disenfranchiser."  It will probably cost him MI in the Fall and there will a whisper campaign that the election was "stolen" by him.

Uggghhh..... Can we PLEASE stop the theory that all this "disenfranchisement" crap will have an effect on the Michigan election. It WON'T.

[J. J.]

Yes, she can, but it will be done at the convention in a back room, and at the hands of the superdelegates.

Yes, she is going to attempt seating the FL/MI delegation.  In theory, at this point, she would get between a 78 seat net gain, to a 178 seat gain in elected delegates from that.

That is one of the reasons I've said that Obama really should try to get those super delegates to announce ASAP.

Obama isn't going to allow any such delegates to be seated if it threatens his position, and the Florida and Michigan delegates cannot vote on the floor as to their own fate. It is really quite over, absent a mega scandal.

He can't afford not to.  It will lead to a floor fight, prologue the entire affair, and give him with growing reputation of being "Obama the Disenfranchiser."  It will probably cost him MI in the Fall and there will a whisper campaign that the election was "stolen" by him.

Uggghhh..... Can we PLEASE stop the theory that all this "disenfranchisement" crap will have an effect on the Michigan election. It WON'T.

It is "crap" and you better get use to hearing it.  It is a problem, because it basically effects the ground forces in MI, and adds to the "elitist" claim against Obama.

[Flying Dog]

Yes, she can, but it will be done at the convention in a back room, and at the hands of the superdelegates.

Yes, she is going to attempt seating the FL/MI delegation.  In theory, at this point, she would get between a 78 seat net gain, to a 178 seat gain in elected delegates from that.

That is one of the reasons I've said that Obama really should try to get those super delegates to announce ASAP.

Obama isn't going to allow any such delegates to be seated if it threatens his position, and the Florida and Michigan delegates cannot vote on the floor as to their own fate. It is really quite over, absent a mega scandal.

He can't afford not to.  It will lead to a floor fight, prologue the entire affair, and give him with growing reputation of being "Obama the Disenfranchiser."  It will probably cost him MI in the Fall and there will a whisper campaign that the election was "stolen" by him.

Uggghhh..... Can we PLEASE stop the theory that all this "disenfranchisement" crap will have an effect on the Michigan election. It WON'T.

It is "crap" and you better get use to hearing it.  It is a problem, because it basically effects the ground forces in MI, and adds to the "elitist" claim against Obama.

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

[J. J.]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one is going to vote for McCain only because of a dispute over DNC rules that half the voters probably don't even understand anyway.

[Flying Dog]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

[J. J.]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

You are not necessarily one of the people that this will likely affect, but there are those people,  party activists.  It also has that effect on voters that might regard Obama as being elitist.  There are not normally GOP voters and in other election tend to vote Democratic.

[Sbane]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

You are not necessarily one of the people that this will likely affect, but there are those people,  party activists.  It also has that effect on voters that might regard Obama as being elitist.  There are not normally GOP voters and in other election tend to vote Democratic.

How many party activists are there? Wont they back Obama anyway in the fall? Plus at least half the delegation will be seated and nobody will care. Seriously there are many better reasons why Obama may lose MI. This is not one of them. And what exactly does this have to do with elitism or were you making a different point altogether.

[nyquil_man]

It's possible. It's not probable.

If the possible happened, based on available polling:

Clinton - 277
McCain - 261

[J. J.]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

You are not necessarily one of the people that this will likely affect, but there are those people,  party activists.  It also has that effect on voters that might regard Obama as being elitist.  There are not normally GOP voters and in other election tend to vote Democratic.

How many party activists are there? Wont they back Obama anyway in the fall? Plus at least half the delegation will be seated and nobody will care. Seriously there are many better reasons why Obama may lose MI. This is not one of them. And what exactly does this have to do with elitism or were you making a different point altogether.

You don't understand.  The party activists are the "ground troops" that get people out to vote.  If they don't work, the candidate loses votes.

"Elitism," and please note that I'm using quotes, affects a different group of voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

You are not necessarily one of the people that this will likely affect, but there are those people,  party activists.  It also has that effect on voters that might regard Obama as being elitist.  There are not normally GOP voters and in other election tend to vote Democratic.

How many party activists are there? Wont they back Obama anyway in the fall? Plus at least half the delegation will be seated and nobody will care. Seriously there are many better reasons why Obama may lose MI. This is not one of them. And what exactly does this have to do with elitism or were you making a different point altogether.

You don't understand.  The party activists are the "ground troops" that get people out to vote.  If they don't work, the candidate loses votes.

"Elitism," and please note that I'm using quotes, affects a different group of voters.

And party activists are also the folks who show up to vote in caucuses. So it's obvious most favor Obama.

[Beet]

They also tend to be the most partisan and committed. Most if not almost all of them will come around if this does not go to convention and especially if state leaders will get behind Obama.

[Ronnie]

No

[J. J.]

Nobody cares, here. Obama supporter, Hillary supporters, whoever, nobody gives a Sh!t.
It's all the economy, all the time here. If Obama successfully ties McCain to Bush with the economy then Michigan will go for him. His anti-NAFTA stance should help him here, too.

No, these kind of things can leave scars.  I think you can get a good idea how much people care about a slight by a candidate from KY and WV.  It wasn't the sole cause of the losses there, but it made it worse.

FL is probably gone, but MI is likely a toss-up. Agreed

I can see that I cannot convince you, even though I live in the state and I'm forced to talk about it everyday. The true sense, even if you don't want to believe it, is that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the election.

I've heard virtually no one in my neighborhood talk about Obama being an "elitist," but I have no doubt that he is regarded as one in some parts of my state (again note the quotes).  No offense, but unless you are well connected to the state, you cannot really tell what the party people are thinking about.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He can also back this up by polls, for which Obama doesn't do any worse and in one showed that he actually had a higher favorability rating than Hillary. Clearly Michiganders are thus voting on issues other than DNC rules disputes. What a shocker!