How likely is it that Colorado will swing to Obama this season?

[Ronnie]

Colorado is one of the most important battlegrounds in '08, and I think that McCain can much more easily win the election if he can have the state in his aisle.

Also, a poll from Rasmussen not a long time ago showed them statistically tied.

Will McCain let the state slip away or not?

[Sbane]

He will campaign hard in Jefferson county and Arapahoe county. They are the swing counties man. Whoever wins those probably wins Colorado. Mccain has been targeting his campaign towards suburbanites recently and the question is Is IT WORKING? Well Mccain has 5 months to work on this. Other than that Colorado Springs is a question to me. I know it will vote for Mccain but what will the margin be and what will be the turnout. All the liberal areas in Colorado will turn out. Can Mccain turn the conservatives out? That is the main question.

[Ronnie]

Conservatives will turn out for McCain.  Trust me, we may be angry at some of McCain's policies (energy, etc.), but in the end, when conservatives see how far to the left Obama is, they will hold their nose and vote.  Look at Rick Santorum.

[Sbane]

Conservatives will turn out for McCain.  Trust me, we may be angry at some of McCain's policies (energy, etc.), but in the end, when conservatives see how far to the left Obama is, they will hold their nose and vote.  Look at Rick Santorum.

Look liberal and people pissed off with bush turnout will be way high this year. How many people will actually go out there to vote against that. Colorado is way more moderate than you think. Mccain has to win places like Jefforson and Arapahoe county and I do not know if that is possible. The WAR just kills him there.

[Alcon]

Colorado has kind of a "perfect storm" element to it for McCain:  decreased fundie turnout hurts him, lots of college-educated folks, many of them well-to-do suburban independents.

Obama's fundamentals there look better than Kerry's on most accounts.

[Sbane]

But I think Obama will only carry Colorado if he wins the election. It is a must win state for him.

[Ronnie]

Conservatives will turn out for McCain.  Trust me, we may be angry at some of McCain's policies (energy, etc.), but in the end, when conservatives see how far to the left Obama is, they will hold their nose and vote.  Look at Rick Santorum.

Look liberal and people pissed off with bush turnout will be way high this year. How many people will actually go out there to vote against that. Colorado is way more moderate than you think. Mccain has to win places like Jefforson and Arapahoe county and I do not know if that is possible. The WAR just kills him there.

Don't forget that attracting 100,000 more Democratic votes from 2004 will be an steep hill for Obama to climb.

As I said once before, McCain will not let Colorado slip away.

[Sbane]

Colorado was like R+1 in 2004. I think it will be right about the national average in 2008. So like I said if Obama wins the election he will have won Colorado.

[Alcon]

Don't forget that attracting 100,000 more Democratic votes from 2004 will be an steep hill for Obama to climb.

As I said once before, McCain will not let Colorado slip away.

Do you really have any substantiative proof for this?  Electorates are somewhat fluid.  Democrats win statewide in Colorado all the time.  100,000 votes is less than a five-point swing.  It's about a 3.5-point swing from an even election.  We're going to see plenty of 3.5+ point swings this election.  Trust me.

What of all these polls in Colorado that show Obama leading?  Polls are, time after time, the best predictors.

[Aizen]

Well, there are already Obama ads up here. A lot of the Republicans here are very conservative (Focus on the Family fundies in the Springs) and McCain is not the man to put them out in full force. The Denver suburbs have been rending Dem so McCain should focus his attention there. Polling has been favorable to Obama so far. I seem to recall most of the polls showing Bush winning by more than he actually won by in 2004. Alas, there is still a lot of time left in this campaign. As I said in another thread a few days ago it is important to keep in mind that it is dangerous for McCain to campaign at such a high altitude at his age when he is not used to it. A lot of people get heart attacks. I'll once again point you to Eisenhower.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

There's a great chance Colorado flips. It seems like no scandal has really effected Obama in the state, and right now I'd put it at 55/45 that Obama wins it over McCain. It will be close whoever ultimately wins.

[Ronnie]

Don't forget that attracting 100,000 more Democratic votes from 2004 will be an steep hill for Obama to climb.

As I said once before, McCain will not let Colorado slip away.

Do you really have any substantiative proof for this?  Electorates are somewhat fluid.  Democrats win statewide in Colorado all the time.  100,000 votes is less than a five-point swing.  It's about a 3.5-point swing from an even election.  We're going to see plenty of 3.5+ point swings this election.  Trust me.

What of all these polls in Colorado that show Obama leading?  Polls are, time after time, the best predictors.

The latest Rasmussen poll had Obama leading with a statistically insignificant advantage.  The polls are close either way in the state.

Colorado is a tossup, and will be close either way.  It just leaves a bitter taste in my mouth to think that Obama can actually win in the state, and I expect McCain to campaign very hard.

[Padfoot]

Colorado was like R+1 in 2004. I think it will be right about the national average in 2008. So like I said if Obama wins the election he will have won Colorado.

I think there is more to it than that.  I would go so far as to say that Colorado+Nevada is Obama's "Ohio."  He really needs to win them in order to win the whole thing IMO.  Ohio is not looking good for him and Florida is a wash so where else is he going to pick up the electoral votes?

[Alcon]

The latest Rasmussen poll had Obama leading with a statistically insignificant advantage.  The polls are close either way in the state.

Colorado is a tossup, and will be close either way.  It just leaves a bitter taste in my mouth to think that Obama can actually win in the state, and I expect McCain to campaign very hard.

Oh, I agree.  I was just saying that he already seems to have climbed that hill and probably even has a slight advantage there.  I meant that the polling indicated that evidently wasn't an especially tough hill to climb--he always has.

[Erc]

Obama needs to win Colorado to win this thing, as I've said time and again.  (He can win without it, but then he'd need to win in Ohio or in the House).

But he's got a very good shot of winning CO.  And if he wins CO, he's in a good position to win the election, assuming he hangs onto WI/PA/MI (which he should).

Kerry 2004 - NH + IA + CO = 264 EV.

All Obama needs to do then is win NM (or NV), which will give him 269 and a House win.  If he wins another state (NH or NV), he wins the election outright.


If Obama doesn't win CO, then he needs to win all three of NH/NM/NV for a House win.


This election will be decided out West this year.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

In the end, when it's all said and done, it will "come home" to McCain.

[Person Man]

Obama needs to win Colorado to win this thing, as I've said time and again.  (He can win without it, but then he'd need to win in Ohio or in the House).

But he's got a very good shot of winning CO.  And if he wins CO, he's in a good position to win the election, assuming he hangs onto WI/PA/MI (which he should).

Kerry 2004 - NH + IA + CO = 264 EV.

All Obama needs to do then is win NM (or NV), which will give him 269 and a House win.  If he wins another state (NH or NV), he wins the election outright.


If Obama doesn't win CO, then he needs to win all three of NH/NM/NV for a House win.


This election will be decided out West this year.

...or in the house.

[auburntiger]

Colorado is a hard state to predict.

Democrats CAN win without carrying it, but like it was said earlier, FL and OH aren't looking good for Obama. I caution Democrats to think otherwise if they think they can carry CO, withstanding a loss in Florida AND Ohio.

Colorado has a strong conservative base. Bush running as a conservative broke 50% both times, and even Bob Dole was able to carry it amidst a Clinton electoral landslide. This rock-solid conservative base makes up about 37% of the electorate in Colorado (I say that because that was Bush 41's share of the vote in 1992 with the Perot factor, the lowest of any GOP candidate since LBJ's landslide). I'm more inclined to expand that broad rock-solid conservative base to 45%, since that was Dole's share of the vote in 1996, even when Perot had a relatively strong showing at 8% nationally.

adding on to that is the moderates, roughly 20% of the state (this makes up conservative and liberal leaning moderates)

The other 40% is liberal, but we learned that 47% is a new high-water mark for Democratic portion of the vote there. the 47% included moderates disgusted with Bush, and hence voted for Kerry.
Since John McCain is the only Republican that CAN win Colorado out of all the GOP candidates this go around, I can guarantee he'll fight tooth and nail to keep this one in the red column.

Liberal turnout will be high, but conservative turnout will be high also because when the base is exposed to the real Barack Obama, they'll turnout hardcore for McCain.

I expect Colorado to run even with the national average, so whoever wins nationally takes Colorado, but I'm expecting that when the dust settles, McCain will have the narrow advantage.

Also, interesting to note how Colorado swings wildly to McCain versus Hillary, when it goes to Obama narrowly at the moment. Once both GE candidates' stances on the issues are known, McCain will have the advantage, because Clinton and Obama are ideologically similar. the only other states that poll the was Colorado does are AR and WV.