This is how I see Nov 4, 2008 as of May 9th, 2008

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama: 274
McCain: 264

[agcatter]

not unreasonable

[elcorazon]

why is Indiana gray?

[Josh/Devilman88]

why is Indiana gray?

The last 2 out of 3 polls showed Obama ahead, of course that is mostly due to him running ads 24/7 there.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama can run ads in Indiana which would swing it. Also, does anyone think Obama will actually break 40% in Utah? It seems since neither Gore nor Kerry broke 30%, it would be a tall order for Obama to accomplish. I'm sorry in advance for questioning if it seems unreasonable.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama can run ads in Indiana which would swing it. Also, does anyone think Obama will actually break 40% in Utah? It seems since neither Gore nor Kerry broke 30%, it would be a tall order for Obama to accomplish. I'm sorry in advance for questioning if it seems unreasonable.

Well, I think Utah should be 60%, but the poll say a different story.  Also Gore didn't get above 30% because of Nader got alot of votes. Anyways, I will be updated this weekly, so it is due to chance.

[Sbane]

Obama can run ads in Indiana which would swing it. Also, does anyone think Obama will actually break 40% in Utah? It seems since neither Gore nor Kerry broke 30%, it would be a tall order for Obama to accomplish. I'm sorry in advance for questioning if it seems unreasonable.

The big number is 60% which is the proportion of Mormons in the state. That in itself would give the majority of votes to Mccain unless there is some kind of backlash. Obama will do well with the indies but there just arent enough non-mormons to get him to 40%.

[exopolitician]

I still dont see New Hampshire flipping....other than that its basically my prediction map on the site.

[JSojourner]

Obama will be demolished in Indiana in November, barring a major McCain meltdown or screwup.  I see no way for Obama to win North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada or Arkansas either.  And yet some of my fellow Obama supporters are entertaining the notion.

Obama must win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington -- at the very least.  And he needs to really try to win Florida, New Mexico and Colorado. 

I'm getting really ticked off at those with pipe dreams of him winning the Dakotas, Montana, Oklahoma and Kansas.  For cryin' out loud, that's like saying McCain's going to be competetive in Vermont, D.C. and Rhode Island.

[elcorazon]

Obama will be demolished in Indiana in November, barring a major McCain meltdown or screwup.  I see no way for Obama to win North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada or Arkansas either.  And yet some of my fellow Obama supporters are entertaining the notion.

Obama must win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington -- at the very least.  And he needs to really try to win Florida, New Mexico and Colorado. 

I'm getting really ticked off at those with pipe dreams of him winning the Dakotas, Montana, Oklahoma and Kansas.  For cryin' out loud, that's like saying McCain's going to be competetive in Vermont, D.C. and Rhode Island.

Why do you include Nevada as unwinnable?  Virginia is one of those trending states that we all have our views on, but each election we all get some insight as to if/how far it is trending.  probably not ready to swing (barring a big Obama victory) but not crazy.  NC is similar, only it's much further from actually being competitive.

West Virginia and Arkansas are mccain victories, even if Hillary is the nominee. don't kid yourself.

I have heard almost no one claim that obama can win the dakotas montana, oklahoma or kansas.  One or two weird polls had North Dakota for Obama and Nebraska close, but otherwise, that's just silly. 

I do think some dems like the idea that the party doesn't abandon wide swaths of our country even if they won't win there... sometimes politics is more complicated than purely calculating states you can win and focusing there.

Obama may help himself in Ohio and Pennsylvania by running a campaign to the entire country... maybe, anyway... he ain't stupid though... he'll spend a lot more in Ohio than he spends in Texas, I can promise you that.

[Sbane]

Obama will be demolished in Indiana in November, barring a major McCain meltdown or screwup.  I see no way for Obama to win North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada or Arkansas either.  And yet some of my fellow Obama supporters are entertaining the notion.

Umm I am guessing you have not been in Nevada in the last few years? It has become little California to say the least. No these new people are not liberal but they are the moderates who put Cali over the top for dems. I think Clinton and Obama both should win Nevada. Clinton will overperform in Las Vegas while Obama will overperform in Reno and Lake Tahoe. The Lake Tahoe area is borgousie and Reno is full of bay area transplants. Las Vegas depends a lot on what the old people and the Hispanics want to do. Trust me though conservative californians do not move to Nevada. They have more than enough golf resorts in Arizona and Idaho to go to.

[JSojourner]

Hi guys!

I may be overcompensating on Nevada.  I know it's been close the last four elections.  But I am just not sure a relative political newcomer like Obama -- with all the Wright baggage sure to be ginned up by the GOP -- can win there, when more established Democrats like Kerry and Gore couldn't.  And Clinton?  Well, he won there alright.  But as Republicans often point out, take Perot out both times and what would have happened?

I'd say Nevada will be reliably Democratic soon.  Hopefully, this year.  But I am trying not to get my hopes up -- as with Virginia and North Carolina.  They will all be ours eventually.  And Nevada may be the first to fall.  But I dunno.

Now -- as to who I have heard making claims about Obama winning the Dakotas and so forth -- haven't there been some nutters right here saying that?  Or am I just erring in taking the word of blue avatared posters who claim it's happening?

[TheresNoMoney]

Registered Dems now outnumber registered Repubs in Nevada.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Registered Dems now outnumber registered Repubs in Nevada.

As in NC, but that don't mean anything. But I get your point.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

State party registration means nothing. 57% of registered voters in West Virginia are Democrats. Does that mean its a solid Democratic state?

[Franzl]

State party registration means nothing. 57% of registered voters in West Virginia are Democrats. Does that mean its a solid Democratic state?

for everything but the presidential vote, yes

[Sbane]

State party registration means nothing. 57% of registered voters in West Virginia are Democrats. Does that mean its a solid Democratic state?

In Nevada it means everything because democrats vote for democrats out here in the west. We do not have DINO's hanging around here( perhaps in mining areas but they really do not matter). Now Nevada will still be close but I would guess in a 50-50 election the democrat would win just like the GOP would probably win Wisconsin. If Obama wins the election he will definitely carry Nevada. Colorado is the western state I am most hopeful of but also the most skeptical. Lots of conservatives in that state and also lots of Hispanics. We will see how Obama does.

[Lunar]

State party registration means nothing. 57% of registered voters in West Virginia are Democrats. Does that mean its a solid Democratic state?

The South has a lot of very socially conservative Dems and West Virginia in particular is filled with populists.  If anything, Nevada's Dems would trend on the libertarian side and I'm not sure that would even really make them close to being DINOs.

I think Nevada is lean Democratic if Hispanic voting patterns don't change from 2004.  It's one of the fastest growing states in the Union (I think 2nd fastest after Arizona with Las Vegas being the fastest growing city) and those migrating, Hispanics and Californians mostly, trend Democratic strongly.

Nevada has a higher percentage of residents born outside the state than any of the other 49 states.

[nyquil_man]

Obama can run ads in Indiana which would swing it. Also, does anyone think Obama will actually break 40% in Utah? It seems since neither Gore nor Kerry broke 30%, it would be a tall order for Obama to accomplish. I'm sorry in advance for questioning if it seems unreasonable.

Obama polls pretty well in the Mountain states. Not well enough to win any of them, though. He may not ultimately break 40%, but he'll probably outperform Gore and Kerry.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I agree except for NH: McCain would win it in a normal year, but the War and Bush's unpopularity will kill him there.

[Aizen]

State party registration means nothing. 57% of registered voters in West Virginia are Democrats. Does that mean its a solid Democratic state?

In Nevada it means everything because democrats vote for democrats out here in the west. We do not have DINO's hanging around here( perhaps in mining areas but they really do not matter). Now Nevada will still be close but I would guess in a 50-50 election the democrat would win just like the GOP would probably win Wisconsin. If Obama wins the election he will definitely carry Nevada. Colorado is the western state I am most hopeful of but also the most skeptical. Lots of conservatives in that state and also lots of Hispanics. We will see how Obama does.

Eh, so far polling has been better for Obama in CO than in NV. But you hit the nail on the head with your other point. There really aren't many DINOs out west so it's more significant that registered Dems outnumber GOP in a place like Nevada as opposed to a state like TN.

[zorkpolitics]

Switching NV (or less likely NM) to McCain and its a 269 to 269 tie.  Then Obama wins in the House

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

McCain - 240
Obama - 233
Toss-Up - 65