will clinton crack 60% in kentucky?

[WalterMitty]

yes.

[Alcon]

Yes.  The question is whether she'll break 70%.

[WalterMitty]

Yes.  The question is whether she'll break 70%.

you really think she has a shot at 70 in ky?

the state is at least a little more diverse than wv. 

[Alcon]

Yes.  The question is whether she'll break 70%.

you really think she has a shot at 70 in ky?

the state is at least a little more diverse than wv. 

It's a closed primary.  West Virginia is open.

SUSA's last polls had Clinton up 63-27 in Kentucky and 55-27 in West Virginia.  Those extrapolate to 70-30 in Kentucky and 67-33 in West Virginia.

[WalterMitty]

Yes.  The question is whether she'll break 70%.

you really think she has a shot at 70 in ky?

the state is at least a little more diverse than wv. 

It's a closed primary.  West Virginia is open.

SUSA's last polls had Clinton up 63-27 in Kentucky and 55-27 in West Virginia.  Those extrapolate to 70-30 in Kentucky and 67-33 in West Virginia.

i dont think republicans in wv are going to make much of a difference in the wv primary one way or the other.

and as ive noted on another thread, the percentage of independents is much lower in wv than it is in most other states.

[Sam Spade]

To keep Obama at 30% or under, she would have to hold him under 23% of the white vote.  Not impossible, but it'll probably be difficult - SUSA has him at that presently.  25% I could well see, frankly.  I doubt the black population makes up more than 12%-13% of registered Dems.  SUSA says 8%, but I think that's a tad low, so I'll guess 10%.

I do have a question - who else is on the ballot here - this is a good place for the Edwards protest vote if one exists.

[Sam Spade]

So ya, she'll crack 60%.  If the Edwards voters are playing, Obama would have to reach 30% of whites.  If not, 35%.  I don't see either happening.

[agcatter]

Clinton will get at least 65.

My prediction is 67.

[elcorazon]

The Eight Belles tragedy at the hands of Big Brown does not bode well for her in Kentucky.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

67-32%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

She'll break 70% in Kentucky. Obama hasn't polled above 30% in any poll yet, and I doubt the undecideds break his way.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Without trouble.

[Padfoot]

70% seems to be a little high.  I can realistically see 60+, but 70?  I don't think so.

To keep Obama at 30% or under, she would have to hold him under 23% of the white vote.  Not impossible, but it'll probably be difficult - SUSA has him at that presently.  25% I could well see, frankly.  I doubt the black population makes up more than 12%-13% of registered Dems.  SUSA says 8%, but I think that's a tad low, so I'll guess 10%.

I do have a question - who else is on the ballot here - this is a good place for the Edwards protest vote if one exists.

According to wikipedia, the state of Kentucky is 7.98% black so unless every Kentuckian is a registered Democrat I'd say that blacks making up only 8% of Democratic voters is more than just a tad low.  As of 2006, 57% of Kentuckians were registered Democrats so your estimate of 12-13% black make-up is probably about right and we could even safely extend the range to 12-14% considering there is a black candidate to vote for.

[Gustaf]

Unless Clinton begins to collapse after a devastating loss in NC, yeah. And possibly even then. I doubt 70% though. Very much.

[BenNebbich]

no, she quits the race before.

[??????????]

no, she quits the race before.

Comedy Gold.

[BenNebbich]

no, she quits the race before.

Comedy Gold.

thank you, i try.