What states will swing the most in 2008?
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  What states will swing the most in 2008?
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Author Topic: What states will swing the most in 2008?  (Read 1026 times)
Josh/Devilman88
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« on: May 03, 2008, 07:37:31 PM »

What states will swing the most in 2008? Do both an Obama and Clinton race.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2008, 07:49:36 PM »

North Carolina. Clinton would landslide it by at least ten points, and Obama would win, too.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2008, 07:50:25 PM »

North Carolina. Clinton would landslide it by at least ten points, and Obama would win, too.

I don't think that would happen.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2008, 08:04:05 PM »

North Carolina. Clinton would landslide it by at least ten points, and Obama would win, too.

I hope you are mocking Josh. Clinton by 10% in NC?
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2008, 08:53:07 PM »

What states will swing the most in 2008? Do both an Obama and Clinton race.
for Clinton - New York?  ... Ohio?  Arkansas?  New Hampshire?
 actually not sure about any of those
for Obama - Illinois? ... Ohio?  Oregon?  Iowa? Minnesota? Colorado? 

I'll actually say North Dakota... mostly because it could swing pretty severely without even changing hands, while the others will be more competitive and as a result might not swing as much.

for mccain v. obama - dunno, maybe west virginia, i guess - wait probably Arizona
for mccain v. hillary - most likely Arizona...
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zombones
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2008, 09:14:55 PM »

if Clinton, Washington State would be complete tossup
Michigan, Oregon, and Wisconsin go Republican.
Florida, Arkansas, and West Virginia go Democrat.


With Obama, Ohio becomes a complete tossup
Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado go Democrat

For both, New Hampshire is for McCain

So sayeth fivethirtyeight.com
However, once Obama gets the nomination, I'm sure OH/PA will go Obama
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elcorazon
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2008, 09:16:30 PM »

if Clinton, Washington State would be complete tossup
Michigan, Oregon, and Wisconsin go Republican.
Florida, Arkansas, and West Virginia go Democrat.


With Obama, Ohio becomes a complete tossup
Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado go Democrat

For both, New Hampshire is for McCain

So sayeth fivethirtyeight.com
However, once Obama gets the nomination, I'm sure OH/PA will go Obama
Ohio as a tossup is NOT a swing.  and hillary will likely lose ark, fl and wv.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2008, 09:49:51 PM »

The whole Dakota column plus Wyoming will swing hard to Obama, but NOT by enough for him to win them.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2008, 09:54:26 PM »

As a wild guess, I would think the biggest swing percentage wise would be in Texas. Interesting question! How is Obama doing against McCain in Rhode Island these days I wonder?
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Alcon
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2008, 09:55:03 PM »

I'd wager Hawai'i will be up there.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2008, 10:15:09 PM »

North Carolina. Clinton would landslide it by at least ten points, and Obama would win, too.

I hope you are mocking Josh. Clinton by 10% in NC?

Oh, come on. People took me seriously?

I agree with Alcon. Hawaii will be well over 60% Obama.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2008, 12:14:53 AM »

Obama v McCain

The Atlantic Coast from Delaware to Georgia will swing towards Obama by about 5 points, biggest swing in Virginia

Everything West of the Mississippi River excluding Arizona, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri will swing towards Obama.  Biggest swing will be from Kansas north but nothing will change hands.  Big swing to McCain in Arizona.

Obama breaks 60% in Hawaii and Illinois.

Clinton v McCain

Big swing in the South including Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.  Clinton only wins Arkansas and possibly Missouri and West Virginia if she's lucky.

Clinton wins 60+ in New York.  Big swing to McCain in Arizona.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2008, 10:24:31 AM »

Iowa.

Indiana, possibly, if only because Bush won it by 20 points and it could swing substantially without breaking its Republican record. Depends on how well Obama plays there as a neighboring senator and with the midwest trending away from Bush-style Republicans and with the 2006 results for Congress.

Nevada is a question mark with the housing bust and the Democratic trend there.

In the other direction, the polling indicates Massachusetts.
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