A different way of looking at 2008 and "electability."

[nyquil_man]

Suppose 2008 were a three-way race between McCain, Obama, and Clinton. Which states would each candidate win?

Using the available polling data, let's make two basic rules:

1. For a state to be "won" by McCain, he must beat both Clinton and Obama in the polls.
2. For either Clinton or Obama to "win" a state, they must both:
 a. beat McCain and
 b. outpoll the other Democratic candidate.

Using that criteria, what do we get?

McCain: 233
Obama: 191
Clinton: 114

This gives us an idea not only of the relative strengths of the two Democratic candidates, but also of McCain's strength.

So who's more electable? Clinton or Obama? The answer is neither; they both have about an equal chance of pulling off a win in the Electoral College.

Combined, the two Democrats receive 305 electoral votes - more than enough to win. But there are only 15 states (plus DC) where both Obama and Clinton beat McCain:

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
DC - 3
Delaware   - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Minnesota - 10
New Jersey - 15
New York - 31
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Total - 214

There are three states where Clinton leads McCain and Obama does not:

Arkansas - 6
Ohio - 20
West Virginia - 5
Total - 31

This gives Clinton a total of 245 electoral votes.

There are seven states where Obama leads McCain and Clinton does not:

Colorado - 9
Iowa - 7
Michigan - 17
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
Oregon - 7
Wisconsin    - 10
Total - 60

This gives Obama a total of 274 electoral votes, enough to win the election, though it's worth noting that some of the margins are very close (and, of course, it's only May).


As for the McCain states, there are eight where Clinton outperforms Obama:

Alabama - 9
Florida - 27
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Oklahoma - 7
Tennessee - 11
Total - 88

With Florida (a very close state in a Clinton-McCain matchup) added to her count of 245, Clinton wins the election with 272 EVs.

[Platypus]

very interesting.

Yesterday I was doing my own predictions, and I got base numbers for McCain and Obama of 167 and 203 respectively, with 168 which could potentially go either way. Of those, 59 went to McCain and 58 to Obama, with 51 remaining tossups- NV, which I then put in McCain's column; NM to Obama, IA and VA to McCain, and the same for Pennsylvania, giving McCain a bare 272-266 win.

[Lief 🗽]

very interesting.

Yesterday I was doing my own predictions, and I got base numbers for McCain and Obama of 167 and 203 respectively, with 168 which could potentially go either way. Of those, 59 went to McCain and 58 to Obama, with 51 remaining tossups- NV, which I then put in McCain's column; NM to Obama, IA and VA to McCain, and the same for Pennsylvania, giving McCain a bare 272-266 win.

For what it's worth, McCain has never led or even been tied in a poll against Obama in Iowa.

[nyquil_man]

very interesting.

Yesterday I was doing my own predictions, and I got base numbers for McCain and Obama of 167 and 203 respectively, with 168 which could potentially go either way. Of those, 59 went to McCain and 58 to Obama, with 51 remaining tossups- NV, which I then put in McCain's column; NM to Obama, IA and VA to McCain, and the same for Pennsylvania, giving McCain a bare 272-266 win.

I assigned any state to a candidate if that candidate is currently leading there. Obviously, there are going to be several tossups.

More or less, I'm making the point that either Clinton or Obama can win - the math is there for either one of them to cross 270. The difference is that, while a Clinton win will depend on the states in the east (where she's strongest), Obama's will depend mostly on the west (where he is strongest).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

very interesting.

Yesterday I was doing my own predictions, and I got base numbers for McCain and Obama of 167 and 203 respectively, with 168 which could potentially go either way. Of those, 59 went to McCain and 58 to Obama, with 51 remaining tossups- NV, which I then put in McCain's column; NM to Obama, IA and VA to McCain, and the same for Pennsylvania, giving McCain a bare 272-266 win.

For what it's worth, McCain has never led or even been tied in a poll against Obama.

Nationally or in a certain state? McCain has led Obama by 10% nationally at the height of the Wright scandal.

[Lief 🗽]

very interesting.

Yesterday I was doing my own predictions, and I got base numbers for McCain and Obama of 167 and 203 respectively, with 168 which could potentially go either way. Of those, 59 went to McCain and 58 to Obama, with 51 remaining tossups- NV, which I then put in McCain's column; NM to Obama, IA and VA to McCain, and the same for Pennsylvania, giving McCain a bare 272-266 win.

For what it's worth, McCain has never led or even been tied in a poll against Obama.

Nationally or in a certain state? McCain has led Obama by 10% nationally at the height of the Wright scandal.

Ugh, sorry. I meant to say that he'd never led or tied Obama in Iowa.