Obama wins election while winning hardly any rural counties?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You know, I'm starting to think this might happen.

Obama is absolutely demolishing McCain in urban areas, but in rural areas he's behind by an unusually wide margin.

Which rural counties do you think Obama will win? I think he'll win the ones in Vermont and Hawaii, plus Shannon SD, but that's about it.

I think he'll win the election on urban areas alone.

Why would the rural/urban split be widening again? Is the DLC really still that powerful?

[ottermax]

I think he'll win rural areas in the West and Midwest such as Iowa and some more in Kansas. The urban/rural split appears to be in the Rust Belt and NE. The South is going to be split on racial lines. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kansas???

Iowa maybe, but I think those counties in Kansas are a lost cause.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Gore came close. However I think Obama will do better than Gore and Kerry in the rural great plains. We'll be able to look at the county map of the south and say, "oh look, that's where all the black people live!"

[Alcon]

Bandit's probably right about Kansas (shock of shocks).

The problem with Kansas (or the matter!  Har har har) is that there aren't really many counties a federal Democrat stands a chance in.  Only three counties went Bush with margins under 15%.  Two of them, Atchinson and Crawford (Pittsburg), are working-class river towns.

The other is Shawnee (Topeka), but he'd need to make up almost ten points.  Bush also jumped from 48% in 2000 to 54% in 2004.

If he does much better than Gore in rural areas, though, he could pick those up plus maybe a few others.  It would be extremely impressive.

[WalterMitty]

there are plenty of rural counties in the south that obama (if he is the nominee) will win handily.

[Mr.Phips]

there are plenty of rural counties in the south that obama (if he is the nominee) will win handily.

A few in Alabama come to mind. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama would do fine in much of rural Minnesota (and Wisconsin and Iowa.)

[J. J.]

Rendell was elected Governor in 2002 without carrying any rural counties.  I think he carried Allegheny and SE PA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rendell was elected Governor in 2002 without carrying any rural counties.

LOL. I suppose Greene, Carbon and Fayette might be urban by whatever standard J. J. uses considering his standards on other things.

[memphis]

Truly rural counties (not suburban) contain a tiny minority of the American population.  Obama will do as well as any other Dem (not so great really) in rural areas. He'll win black belt, TVA counties that Kerry won, areas along the Upper Mississippi, and majority Hispanic counties out West. The real fight in this election will come down to the suburbs.

[© tweed]

Obama will outplay Kerry (and Gore) by a lot in middle-American rural counties.  (and McCain won't do as well as Bush did...)  silly thread.

[ottermax]

Concerning Kansas, I think Obama could win several counties that voted Sebelius, particularly sparsely populated ones. I do think he will make most counties closer in Kansas, although he might not win many. Just look at Sebelius in 2006. He won't do as well as she did, but he could definitely make a very different map.