MI-07/EPIC-MRA: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) trails Mark Schauer (D)

[Tender Branson]

Schauer-D: 49%
Walberg-R: 48%

The error margin of the survey of 400, Feb. 27 through March 2, was 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/METRO/803060511

[Brittain33]

Schauer-D: 49%
Walberg-R: 48%

The error margin of the survey of 400, Feb. 27 through March 2, was 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/METRO/803060511

I read that this is the "informed ballot" results and the pre-biography numbers are Walberg 51%-40%. Still not a good place to be.

[minionofmidas]

Schauer-D: 49%
Walberg-R: 48%

The error margin of the survey of 400, Feb. 27 through March 2, was 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/METRO/803060511

I read that this is the "informed ballot" results and the pre-biography numbers are Walberg 51%-40%. Still not a good place to be.

In other words, a push poll?

[Brittain33]

In other words, a push poll?

It's weird, I've not seen a media biography poll before. It's still useless but one presumes the biographies are fair and not of the "would you vote for Tim Walberg, a former Washington lobbyist and ally of Dick Cheney, or Marc Schauer, an advocate of working people in the state legislatur?" variety.

[Sam Spade]

Schauer-D: 49%
Walberg-R: 48%

The error margin of the survey of 400, Feb. 27 through March 2, was 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/METRO/803060511

I read that this is the "informed ballot" results and the pre-biography numbers are Walberg 51%-40%. Still not a good place to be.

In other words, a push poll?

Looks like it to me. 

The problem with this CD for Dems continues to be the fact that it's elected a Republican congressman since before the Great Depression (as I remember).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In other words, a push poll?

It's weird, I've not seen a media biography poll before. It's still useless but one presumes the biographies are fair and not of the "would you vote for Tim Walberg, a former Washington lobbyist and ally of Dick Cheney, or Marc Schauer, an advocate of working people in the state legislatur?" variety.

Oh, I have.  They're done, generally, to show the "best case scenario" for a candidate—your message gets out, your opponent's message doesn't.  It's somewhat common in long-shot campaigns to prove that, yes, there is a scenario in which they can win.

To get only 49% to your opponent's 48% in such a poll, however, is bad news.  It means that it will be virtually impossible to win, unless your opponent essentially declines to campaign.

[Brittain33]

Oh, I have.  They're done, generally, to show the "best case scenario" for a candidate—your message gets out, your opponent's message doesn't.  It's somewhat common in long-shot campaigns to prove that, yes, there is a scenario in which they can win.

I'm sorry, I wasn't being clear. This poll was done by the Detroit News, NOT by the Schauer campaign. That's what I meant by "media." I've seen the other type many times, usually heavily promoted on Kos diaries.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, I have.  They're done, generally, to show the "best case scenario" for a candidate—your message gets out, your opponent's message doesn't.  It's somewhat common in long-shot campaigns to prove that, yes, there is a scenario in which they can win.

I'm sorry, I wasn't being clear. This poll was done by the Detroit News, NOT by the Schauer campaign. That's what I meant by "media." I've seen the other type many times, usually heavily promoted on Kos diaries.

Someone in the media paid for this?  Wow.  The Schauer campaign must have really good friends at the Detroit News.

[Flying Dog]

Walberg is way to conservative for even MI-07. He belongs in Alabama. Remember, he only won by a couple percentage points to a liberal democrat that he outspent 20-1. Mark Schauer is well respected in the district and this will definitely be a competitive one.

[minionofmidas]

Stop badmouthing Alabama, home of fine (for a Republican) gentlemen like Richard Shelby and Mike Rogers.

[Flying Dog]

Stop badmouthing Alabama, home of fine (for a Republican) gentlemen like Richard Shelby and Mike Rogers.

How is being really conservative a derogatory remark. Only if you, yourself think about it that way.

[minionofmidas]

Stop badmouthing Alabama, home of fine (for a Republican) gentlemen like Richard Shelby and Mike Rogers.

How is being really conservative a derogatory remark. Only if you, yourself think about it that way.

"He belongs in [insert whatever here]" is a derogatory remark, since it implies "He doesn't belong here and should just go away."

[Flying Dog]

Stop badmouthing Alabama, home of fine (for a Republican) gentlemen like Richard Shelby and Mike Rogers.

How is being really conservative a derogatory remark. Only if you, yourself think about it that way.

"He belongs in [insert whatever here]" is a derogatory remark, since it implies "He doesn't belong here and should just go away."

no.

[MarkWarner08]

Schauer-D: 49%
Walberg-R: 48%

The error margin of the survey of 400, Feb. 27 through March 2, was 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/METRO/803060511

This is going to be a marquee race. Even Sharon Reiner, an organic farmer (!), held Walberg to 50%. The bitter nature of the Walberg primary win likely contributed to his slim win, but the presence of a top-flight Democratic like Schauer is more than enough to keep this race tight.

[minionofmidas]

"Probably"? Lol.