Brown's Quagmire

[The Man From G.O.P.]

What's the man to do? Ride it out and hope things improve? I think they're about to get a hell of a lot worse for a while.

[Democratic Hawk]

I don't know but much to my disillusionment the government seems to be limping on in much the same way John Major's did

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You seem to start a thread like this every month or so

Anyway, it's reasonably clear what the government has to do to get re-elected (which is obviously a very different thing to what this thread seems to be about) or at least prevent a Tory majority, though whether they'll actually do it I'm not sure (old habits die hard and I don't think everyone up top really understands that the '90's-writ-large be over now). But I do know that it's got very little to do with whatever the media narrative happens to be now or in six months time.

[minionofmidas]

Specifics. Needs. Specifics.

Al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Specifics. Needs. Specifics.

Al?

I'm feeling a little light-headed at the moment so I can't really explain things properly, but I'll say what I think the problem is and then explain what I think can/should be done about it when I'm feeling... eh... anyway...

It needs to be understood by the people up top that what was left of the middle class support Blair brought to the Party in the '90's is almost entirely gone and probably won't be coming back in the near future. It also looks like quite a few of those that left before 2005 to the LibDems have done the traditional two-step and will now vote Tory. All of which means that (and assuming that the Tories don't f*** up big time) the Party needs to find new voters from somewhere; the Labour core vote is solid but isn't big enough to win on its own.

If this seems very basic it's because the problem is very basic. Anyway. More soonish.

[minionofmidas]

That's the problem; the question would be as to what the solution is (although I don't think all that support is gone.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's the problem; the question would be as to what the solution is (although I don't think all that support is gone.)

True on both o/c (but exaggeration can sort of help with this sort of thing).

---

This is irritating; I know what I want to write but I can't seem to, you know... ah... I think it's possible that I've forgotten to eat anything again. I think something like this happend the last time.

[afleitch]

I'd agree with that. I would propose that the 'roll back' is much wider than simply the loss of the electorate that Blair brought to the party however, we could be looking at some sections of the electorate reverting to pre-'92 or even pre-'79 voting patterns. These are not necessarily the same people as they have moved on or died, but the same type. That was our problem from 97-05. We tried to attract the same people, not the same types. Raw Tory support throughout the Thatcher era was steady and as we know in 1992 was it's highest vote ever but now we have had two elections with comparably low turnout. The naiveity of the insistance during the Blair years that turnout was low because people were satisfied or content with the way things are has thankfully been trashed. We know that many voters feel unrepresented and disenfranchised. I'm not linking low turnout with being 'fed up' with Labour, though many of course are. Just that while may be little motivation to vote against the government, nor is there much motivation to vote for them, even if the next election goes down to the wire

The Tories know what sort of voter Labour need to re-connect with because we're trying to connect with them too. I won't give away strategic secrets, but in my own local campaign in May in which we were all given a great degree of control was a bit of a dry-run. In trudging through council estates with an anti-poverty message where other candidates didn't even go, we were able to pile up votes in unexpected places. We're not exclusively targeting the same people we targeted last time, because with many of them we know it is what Labour do, or do not do that will drive them to vote for us. However what Cameron has done, whether anyone personally likes him or dislikes him, is rehabilitated 'Brand Tory.' That's what that policy-less first 18 months were an exercise in (and luckily we stuck with him). Cameron sanitised the brand, built up the profile of his front bench, but let policy operate behind the scenes. The messenger had to be tailored before the message.

And of course Labour want to know our next steps - pay close attention to Camerons PMQ's last week.