How likely is Colorado to vote for Obama?

[Jacobtm]

Polls seem to be showing that even before national campaigning has begun in earnest, Colorado has gone from voting for George Bush in '04 to favoring Obama in '08. Is such a swing and indication of the fact that everyone already knows Obama and McCain well enough through the media, and once Obama became the nominee, Colorado has just decided they like him better than McCain? Is Colorado solid Obama country?

Or is this just a love-affair with an optimistic sounding politician that could be destroyed by a few ads tarnishing Obama's reputation? Does Colorado really have so fluid an electorate to go from Bush by 5 to Obama by 5 in 4 years?

[ottermax]

I think Colorado has a lot of swing voters, and a lot of "latte liberals." Not to mention a youthful state with a lot of growth. Many voters are new voters in Colorado. One key group is the Evangelical vote. Since cultural issues are not on the top of the minds and McCain doesn't really represent the social conservative vote, Evangelicals are more willing to vote for the Democrats, and not necessarily are they going to turn out in huge numbers.

Colorado is still a swing state, but it is looking good for Obama. However, it can be won by McCain; Obama currently has an advantage.

[Speed of Sound]

fivethirthyeight.com currently places the odds at 71% for Obama, but my guess would be that he's lookin' at about 45% chance if the vote is 50-50 nationally, with a 10% increase with every percent shifted from McCain to Obama nationally.

[AkSaber]

I've been wondering this myself. Obama has a good shot at it, the first Democrat to have that in a long time. But McCain is from Arizona, so he has quite a bit of name recognition in that region. Whether or not that helps McCain, I can't really decide right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

fivethirthyeight.com currently places the odds at 71% for Obama, but my guess would be that he's lookin' at about 45% chance if the vote is 50-50 nationally, with a 10% increase with every percent shifted from McCain to Obama nationally.

Yay, you're back!

[Speed of Sound]

fivethirthyeight.com currently places the odds at 71% for Obama, but my guess would be that he's lookin' at about 45% chance if the vote is 50-50 nationally, with a 10% increase with every percent shifted from McCain to Obama nationally.

Yay, you're back!

Yay, you're still here! As brash as ever, I hope? A tranquil BRTD would just take all the fun out of posting this election cycle.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, you should've seen me at Hillary's concession.

Where have you been all this time?

[Aizen]

I think Colorado has a lot of swing voters, and a lot of "latte liberals." Not to mention a youthful state with a lot of growth. Many voters are new voters in Colorado. One key group is the Evangelical vote. Since cultural issues are not on the top of the minds and McCain doesn't really represent the social conservative vote, Evangelicals are more willing to vote for the Democrats, and not necessarily are they going to turn out in huge numbers.

Colorado is still a swing state, but it is looking good for Obama. However, it can be won by McCain; Obama currently has an advantage.

Yep, Colorado has a lot of latte liberals, educated people (2nd most educated state after MA I believe), young people and independents. The Republican base is mostly evangelical fundies. This was good for Bush. Not as good for McCain. I disagree these evangelicals are more likely to vote Obama. Rather, they simply will turn out in lower numbers. It's a fact that Colorado is trending hard left. The Democrats are gaining control of the Denver suburbs and the fundies are being pushed to the absolute brink. They're now forced to defend their home base in Colorado Springs. This can cause the Democrats to be on the offensive now. If Obama can unite the latinos, the Dems can launch a two pronged attack on the fundie fortress of Colorado Springs. The liberal bastions of Boulder and Denver coming in from the North and the high hispanic population from Pueblo coming in from the south.

[Aizen]

I've been wondering this myself. Obama has a good shot at it, the first Democrat to have that in a long time. But McCain is from Arizona, so he has quite a bit of name recognition in that region. Whether or not that helps McCain, I can't really decide right now.

McCain being from Arizona doesn't help. Nobody in Colorado cares about Arizona.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, McCain has yet to lead in a (non-partisan) poll in the state, so things are looking good.

[© tweed]

more likely than you'd think

COLORADO.DEM 67.0

[Jacobtm]

I don't really understand the idea that being from a neighboring state really helps. Even unconciously, do you really think that someone from State A would vote for someone from State B just because A and B share a border? If the candidate represents values that are common across a region that's a different story, but just being from a certain state doesn't seem like it should matter much at all...

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, you should've seen me at Hillary's concession.

Where have you been all this time?

Tis a shame I missed it, as we wouldve had a good time (We had a blast at my house).

As for my disappearance, I told myself I was going to break for a little while, and then I got caught up in some stuff.....that kind of stuff where you start out saying "Hey, this could have a really good ending to it if I play my cards right!" and end saying "Good lord, if I work my ass off 24/7 for the next month, maybe I can get things almost back to even." I never actually did get things back to even, so I just dropped it all and came back here, as I have been lurking for a week or two, and have been dying to get in on the action. Expect alot of me here in this board especially.

[AkSaber]

I've been wondering this myself. Obama has a good shot at it, the first Democrat to have that in a long time. But McCain is from Arizona, so he has quite a bit of name recognition in that region. Whether or not that helps McCain, I can't really decide right now.

McCain being from Arizona doesn't help. Nobody in Colorado cares about Arizona.

Ah. See, me not being from Colorado, I do not know these things. But now that I do, I think McCain should try to project himself as from the Southwest instead of Arizona. Or he could try to sell to Coloradoans that he is from an area they care about. Good plan maybe?

[gmo]

I don't really understand the idea that being from a neighboring state really helps. Even unconciously, do you really think that someone from State A would vote for someone from State B just because A and B share a border? If the candidate represents values that are common across a region that's a different story, but just being from a certain state doesn't seem like it should matter much at all...

I think the familiarity thing can play a factor in some cases.  On the other hand here on the eastern edge of ND our local media cover much of the goings-on in northwest MN, plus the Twin Cities is the nearest big metro area.  So people here can get a good deal of MN info and hear/read much MN politics.  However, I doubt many people in CO hear much about AZ politics.  I have never lived in the northeast, so I would figure there is much such overlap there, though the values overlap occurs too.

As for the topic here, CO has slid noticeably left and it does look good at this point for Obama.  It will be interesting to see how the polls look there going into then following the convention.  I wonder if that may be enough to lock up the state assuming the current race status is not greatly shaken.  It is an interesting state - I can see either side winning it as well as either side winning it but losing nationwide.

[Ronnie]

It is easy for Obama to carry Colorado.  All he has to do is carry the bellwether counties of Arapahoe and Jefferson (that seem to always vote together), and the state is practically his.

It's heavily leaning toward Obama at this point.

[ottermax]

It's interesting how Otero, Bent, and Mineral Counties voted Clinton in 96, but were all over 60% for Bush in 2004. So I think Coloradans change votes pretty easily.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I've been wondering this myself. Obama has a good shot at it, the first Democrat to have that in a long time. But McCain is from Arizona, so he has quite a bit of name recognition in that region. Whether or not that helps McCain, I can't really decide right now.

McCain being from Arizona doesn't help. Nobody in Colorado cares about Arizona.

Ah. See, me not being from Colorado, I do not know these things. But now that I do, I think McCain should try to project himself as from the Southwest instead of Arizona. Or he could try to sell to Coloradoans that he is from an area they care about. Good plan maybe?

The problem is, the "Neighboring State" argument usually doesn't work. It does work in one of two cases: one is in areas with a strong regionalist mentality, but this is only true in the South and, to a far lesser extent, in New England. It also works if one state has a large media market which bleeds into surrounding states (ie New York City with CT and NJ, Boston with RI and NH, Chicago with IN and WI, etc) It doesn't work in the West because they're huge, many people who live there haven't lived there very long, and cities are far apart from each other, so people in Colorado won't watch Phoenix TV.

[Padfoot]

Looking at the states Bush won by less than 5% in 2004 I'd probably put them in the following order from most likely to least likely to flip:

1. Iowa
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Nevada
5. Ohio

I have Iowa as a strong Obama state, New Mexico as a leaner, and Colorado as a tossup.  As soon as we get someone else besides Rasmussen to poll the state and show Obama with and edge I'm holding off on pushing it into the leans category.  I really don't understand why we haven't seen more polling done here in the first place considering the high profile Senate race going on.  Its very odd IMO.

[Kushahontas]

I've been wondering this myself. Obama has a good shot at it, the first Democrat to have that in a long time. But McCain is from Arizona, so he has quite a bit of name recognition in that region. Whether or not that helps McCain, I can't really decide right now.

McCain being from Arizona doesn't help. Nobody in the southwest cares about Arizona.

[NDN]

I think Colorado has a lot of swing voters, and a lot of "latte liberals." Not to mention a youthful state with a lot of growth. Many voters are new voters in Colorado. One key group is the Evangelical vote. Since cultural issues are not on the top of the minds and McCain doesn't really represent the social conservative vote, Evangelicals are more willing to vote for the Democrats, and not necessarily are they going to turn out in huge numbers.

Colorado is still a swing state, but it is looking good for Obama. However, it can be won by McCain; Obama currently has an advantage.

Exactly my take. I still think he's much more likely to win CO at this point than NM, which has horrible demographics for him even when you factor in hispanics' historically low turn out.

[elcorazon]

Looking at the states Bush won by less than 5% in 2004 I'd probably put them in the following order from most likely to least likely to flip:

1. Iowa
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Nevada
5. Ohio

I'd rank them this way:

Iowa
Ohio
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada

Obama has a really good shot to take all 5.  I'd favor him in 3.  NM is tossup.  NV is lean McCain.