How are Rhode Island and Vermont looking?

[King]

In addition to Texas and Ohio on March 4th, I think that Clinton winning those two tiny states are musts simply because a 4-0 sweep looks better than 2-2 even if the 0-2 are two states that don't really matter in the delegate count.   Obama can't claim any ounce of victory on March 4th for her to continue IMHO.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vermont for Obama, Rhode Island for Clinton, they probably cancel each other out. Snore...

[War on Want]

Vermont for Obama, Rhode Island for Clinton, they probably cancel each other out. Snore...

Except Vermont goes more strongly for Obama, than Rhode Island goes for Clinton, so it barely benefits Obama.

[agcatter]

Yeah, they more or less cancel each other out - maybe a net 1 or 2 for Obama.

[Verily]

Vermont for Obama, Rhode Island for Clinton, they probably cancel each other out. Snore...

Except Vermont goes more strongly for Obama, than Rhode Island goes for Clinton, so it barely benefits Obama.

Vermont also has fewer delegates than Rhode Island.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I see Rhode Island going 60-40 for Clinton, and Vermont going 65-35 for Obama.

[War on Want]

I see Rhode Island going 60-40 for Clinton, and Vermont going 65-35 for Obama.

I see Rhode Island going 55-45 Clinton and Vermont going 70-30 Obama. More or less the same.

[Erc]

Rhode Island is a lock for Clinton.  End of story.

Vermont....will be quite interesting.  I look forward to seeing the results, personally.

I'd give Obama a slight edge, for a variety of reasons, but there's no way he breaks 60.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Rhode Island will be closer than people think. Obama's momentum will cause the race to tighten up.

[Jake]

I posted this earlier:

As to the original question, Clinton would need to break 58.5% in the 1st District to secure a 4th delegate. It's almost certain she'll get 4 delegates in the 2nd District because she needs 64.4% to earn a 5th. The 1st District abuts with Bristol County, MA which gave her 68.94%. I think it's likely she breaks 58.5% there. Statewide, she'd have to win with 56% to earn a 5-3 split which with an expected big win in the 1st District is very probable. So, that would give her 13-8 split out of awarded delagates.

So, odds are if Clinton wins 56-44, she takes a 5 delegate lead out of Rhode Island. In the off chance she wins big she could pick up another one or two, but that's unlikely.

In Vermont, Obama needs the following vote shares to win the stated delegate margin district wide:

5-5 - less than 55.1%
6-4 - less than 65.1%
7-3 - less than 75.1%
8-2 - more than 75.1%

And statewide:

3-2 - less than 70.2%
4-1 - more than 70.2%

Obviously both constituencies are the same, so combining them:

8-7 - less than 55.1%
9-6 - less than 65.1%
10-5 - less than 70.2%
11-4 - less than 75.1%
12-3 - more than 75.1%

Now, Vermont is tough to call. Definitely some blue collar areas in the state, definitely some anti-establishment areas. If I was to guess, I'd say 60-40 Obama, but I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton ranged anywhere from nearly 50% to 35%. Either way, Obama has to break 65% if he wants the 5 delegate cushion.

[© tweed]

RI should be something like Worcester County.  I'd suspect VT is pretty strong Obama, but who knows.

[Jake]

RI should be something like Worcester County.  I'd suspect VT is pretty strong Obama, but who knows.

And some Bristol County as well.

[Verily]

In Rhode Island, Obama stands an outside chance at winning Newport County. Nowhere else. Ditto for Clinton in Vermont replacing Newport with Essex.