Maine Republican Caucus

[JSojourner]

Next up we have the Dems in SC and then both parties in Florida.  Everyone looks to Super Tuesday after that -- but have any of you heard what's going on in Maine?

Republicans are supposed to caucus there on February 1st, four days before Super Tuesday.  I haven't seen any recent polling, have you?  Is it another Wyoming, where it just doesn't matter that much?

Have you any expectations of how it will go?

[Keystone Phil]

It'll be like Wyoming except McCain wins it.

[Bacon King]

My guess would be McCain, with Romney a close-ish second. Paul gets above normal results.

[Hash]

The last poll in October had Romney in the lead with 15% with 51% undecided.

McCain will probably get an easy win.

[Person Man]

who knows....Romney is next door but the Golden Arches are do so well there.

[Verily]

I disagree on the easy McCain win. I suspect Romney will see it as another opportunity to win delegates and make himself look like the leader and therefore will campaign seriously in Maine whilst everyone else ignores it.

Perhaps not, but I suspect it will be solidly Romney.

[Verily]

And actually, next up is Hawaii for the Republicans, on the 25th. That's a day before South Carolina for the Democrats.

[JSojourner]

Crap. I keep forgetting Hawaii.

And yes, these states have very little to offer in terms of delegates.  But they do offer headlines.  If Mitt wins Maine, or Maine and Hawaii, he steals some of McCain's thunder before Super Tuesday.  If McCain wins one, or both, the McMentum Express is rolling...

Not sure what it means if one of the others wins either or both.

[defe07]

Maine could be a good state for Paul. It neighbors NH, it's pretty independent-minded. I would like to see Paul win Maine but I'm not going to predict it.

[War on Want]

Maine prediction:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Huckabee
5. Giuliani.

[Mr. Morden]

I disagree on the easy McCain win. I suspect Romney will see it as another opportunity to win delegates and make himself look like the leader and therefore will campaign seriously in Maine whilst everyone else ignores it.

He might throw some $ at it (I can't imagine running TV ads in a state as small as Maine is that expensive), but do you really think he's going to bother personally campaigning there, during that week between Florida and Super Tuesday?

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney wins Maine.

[Tender Branson]

I think it will look NHish. Giuliani and Paul could reach more than 10%, but I think Paul will beat him again.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I disagree on the easy McCain win. I suspect Romney will see it as another opportunity to win delegates and make himself look like the leader and therefore will campaign seriously in Maine whilst everyone else ignores it.

Perhaps not, but I suspect it will be solidly Romney.

I know it's the kid's home region, but there is no chance in hell Mitt Romney beats John McCain anywhere in New England.  Massachusetts included.

[Erc]

The vast majority of Maine towns will be caucusing on the 2nd of February.  L.L. Bean Freeport, ME will be caucusing on the 30th, a significant fraction will be caucusing on the 1st, but only 3 towns (Cumberland, Gray, and Orland) will be caucusing on the 3rd.

Thus, don't be surprised if some numbers get released on the 2nd.

[Padfoot]

And actually, next up is Hawaii for the Republicans, on the 25th. That's a day before South Carolina for the Democrats.

Correction - Hawaii Republicans begin caucusing on January 25th.  The Hawaii caucus is done by representative districts and the last two districts don't vote until February 5th and only half the districts will have voted by January 29th (the same day as Florida).

The vast majority of Maine towns will be caucusing on the 2nd of February.  L.L. Bean Freeport, ME will be caucusing on the 30th, a significant fraction will be caucusing on the 1st, but only 3 towns (Cumberland, Gray, and Orland) will be caucusing on the 3rd.

Thus, don't be surprised if some numbers get released on the 2nd.

I'm fairly certain CNN won't call these states until after everyone is finished voting as I believe its their policy not to make predictions until after all precincts have finished voting.  Also, I don't think the state parties are going to be posting results until after everyone has had their say either.