Can McCain Become The Compromise Republican Nominee?

[Torie]

Just because you don't like someone, Carl, doesn't mean he won't win. Cheers.

PS: I wish you were right about McCain and gay marriage, but alas you are not. He might favor some sort of civil union legislation done by the states, perhaps.

Somebody mentioned that the corpse of Lochner will be reanimated. That will only happen in a horror flick, not in the chambers of SCOTUS. LOL.

[Sam Spade]

Look, McCain as compromise candidate would serve what should be an important goal for Republicans - keeping Bloomberg out of the 2008 campaign.  I know some Republicans believe Bloomberg helps them - they're wrong.

Fundamentally, unless Bloomberg is willing to enter without any hope at victory or making an "impact", and I suspect not, I can't see him running if Hillary or McCain is nominee.  Rudy or Obama being in the race makes it 50-50 in my mind.  Bloomberg will surely enter if Edwards, Huckabee or Romney are involved.

Have at it.

[Person Man]

I don't know where to go now. His age or the fact that his hawkishness may make it that the Iraq situation becomes permanent. That's what I believe. After talking to some gung-ho former grunts, I know that the neo-con establishment wants Iraq to be a colony, so long as it isn't called that. - That will fuk our national security to no end. We cannot afford another president that is still hunting for Moby even after he has Moby on the wall. That's why I am beginning to lean towards Hillary. She will give us a slow, phased withdrawl. We have done as much as we can in Iraq. The Iraqi Civil War is either over or cannot be prevented unless we make Iraq a protectorate.

Also, I am not just worried about Roe v. Wade. Roe will cause too much chaos and I can assure you that I will have myself v-sected and just have my kids IVF, especially if my state pushes to the right on the issue. Mc Cain will still isolate America from the rest of the world on the environment.(personally, I think the Kyoto nations should put a carbon tariff of 5% on all U.S. goods until we sign the treaty), but he will likely nominate judges that could, perhaps uphold Lochner. I think Kennedy, Thomas, Alito and Roberts are already good, well and ready to bring back Lochner. That means that the entire U.S. infrastructure will be considered the same as tearing up the entire U.S. constitution.

McCain is strongly convinced that human activity is a factor in global warming, and humans need to take action. Given his stance, I'm not sure I understand the part I highlighted.

He still oposes Kyoto. I really don't know what's wrong with that treaty. If China and India refuse to go along with it, we will simply have a reason to put tariffs on their goods until they can find the errors in their ways. I am normally pro-choice on trade, but Global Warming is a horrible problem and yet offers many oppurtunities for growth and advancement.

[agcatter]

You don't have much of a choice then, do you Carl.  It's either McCain with his 4 positions you just pointed out or Hillary who has  those 4 positions even more pronounced plus left on the war on terror, massive new federal spending, government run health care, and more Ruth Ginsbergs on both the Supreme Court and Circuit Court level.

Lousy choice, but I gotta go with McCain.  Hillary has to be stopped.  Now if there was someone else out there who could beat her I'd love it.  Unfortunately, there isn't.

[muon2]

I don't know where to go now. His age or the fact that his hawkishness may make it that the Iraq situation becomes permanent. That's what I believe. After talking to some gung-ho former grunts, I know that the neo-con establishment wants Iraq to be a colony, so long as it isn't called that. - That will fuk our national security to no end. We cannot afford another president that is still hunting for Moby even after he has Moby on the wall. That's why I am beginning to lean towards Hillary. She will give us a slow, phased withdrawl. We have done as much as we can in Iraq. The Iraqi Civil War is either over or cannot be prevented unless we make Iraq a protectorate.

Also, I am not just worried about Roe v. Wade. Roe will cause too much chaos and I can assure you that I will have myself v-sected and just have my kids IVF, especially if my state pushes to the right on the issue. Mc Cain will still isolate America from the rest of the world on the environment.(personally, I think the Kyoto nations should put a carbon tariff of 5% on all U.S. goods until we sign the treaty), but he will likely nominate judges that could, perhaps uphold Lochner. I think Kennedy, Thomas, Alito and Roberts are already good, well and ready to bring back Lochner. That means that the entire U.S. infrastructure will be considered the same as tearing up the entire U.S. constitution.

McCain is strongly convinced that human activity is a factor in global warming, and humans need to take action. Given his stance, I'm not sure I understand the part I highlighted.

He still oposes Kyoto. I really don't know what's wrong with that treaty. If China and India refuse to go along with it, we will simply have a reason to put tariffs on their goods until they can find the errors in their ways. I am normally pro-choice on trade, but Global Warming is a horrible problem and yet offers many oppurtunities for growth and advancement.

I'm a strong advocate for global warming, but I think the last decade has shown the problems with Kyoto. It failed to anticipate the rapid growth of carbon output from nations like India and China, despite economic evidence available at the time. They should be all too ready to sign the existing document, because if the treaty were drafted today it would (and should) be much tougher on them.

[auburntiger]

I have now endorsed McCain, and will stick to that from now on.

[Person Man]

I don't know where to go now. His age or the fact that his hawkishness may make it that the Iraq situation becomes permanent. That's what I believe. After talking to some gung-ho former grunts, I know that the neo-con establishment wants Iraq to be a colony, so long as it isn't called that. - That will fuk our national security to no end. We cannot afford another president that is still hunting for Moby even after he has Moby on the wall. That's why I am beginning to lean towards Hillary. She will give us a slow, phased withdrawl. We have done as much as we can in Iraq. The Iraqi Civil War is either over or cannot be prevented unless we make Iraq a protectorate.

Also, I am not just worried about Roe v. Wade. Roe will cause too much chaos and I can assure you that I will have myself v-sected and just have my kids IVF, especially if my state pushes to the right on the issue. Mc Cain will still isolate America from the rest of the world on the environment.(personally, I think the Kyoto nations should put a carbon tariff of 5% on all U.S. goods until we sign the treaty), but he will likely nominate judges that could, perhaps uphold Lochner. I think Kennedy, Thomas, Alito and Roberts are already good, well and ready to bring back Lochner. That means that the entire U.S. infrastructure will be considered the same as tearing up the entire U.S. constitution.

McCain is strongly convinced that human activity is a factor in global warming, and humans need to take action. Given his stance, I'm not sure I understand the part I highlighted.

He still oposes Kyoto. I really don't know what's wrong with that treaty. If China and India refuse to go along with it, we will simply have a reason to put tariffs on their goods until they can find the errors in their ways. I am normally pro-choice on trade, but Global Warming is a horrible problem and yet offers many oppurtunities for growth and advancement.

I'm a strong advocate for global warming, but I think the last decade has shown the problems with Kyoto. It failed to anticipate the rapid growth of carbon output from nations like India and China, despite economic evidence available at the time. They should be all too ready to sign the existing document, because if the treaty were drafted today it would (and should) be much tougher on them.

Like I said, tariffs would give the treaty some teeth.

I have now endorsed McCain, and will stick to that from now on.

Ehhh...at least embryonic stem sell research will be worked on. Though, he was just sleazy with the religious right earlier this year and Focus on The Fetus still refuses to support him. Colorado could lean dem because of the lack of support from Focus on the Fetus if McCain is nominated. Then again, he would be a hit amongst the vets and hispanics. Then again, I don't really see that many suburbanites being TOO wild about him. My adopted home state could be in play, even with McCain.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You don't have much of a choice then, do you Carl.  It's either McCain with his 4 positions you just pointed out or Hillary who has  those 4 positions even more pronounced plus left on the war on terror, massive new federal spending, government run health care, and more Ruth Ginsbergs on both the Supreme Court and Circuit Court level.

Lousy choice, but I gotta go with McCain.  Hillary has to be stopped.  Now if there was someone else out there who could beat her I'd love it.  Unfortunately, there isn't.

Kind of reminds me how the comdemned in Utah used to get their choice of firing squad or hanging.

Now, one of the advantages of Hillary is that she will be unable to persuade a significant number of Republicans in Congress to enact her policies.  McCain might be able to do so.

As to appointments, John Paul Stevens was more of a disaster that Ginsburg. 

In conclusion, we're less likely to get a left-wing government in Washington with Hillary as President than with McCain.

[agcatter]

Hillary is a slam dunk to appoint a far lefty to the Supreme Court.  You can count on it 110%.  Maybe two or three.  God help us.  Stevens and Souter were disasters but that doesn't mean that's what we will get from McCain.

I watched the debate last night and the only two things I agreed with McCain last night on were national security and spending.  He got a free ride on illegal immigration as no one called him on it.  Global warming he's horrible - just like Hillary.

BTW, I just saw that Hillary said yesterday there are "no illegal women".

GOD HELP US ALL.  We're soooooo screwed.

[Person Man]

What are you going to do? Move to Canada. Nope, that would be like the geese flying north for the winter (no pun intended). Try Mexico, Columbia, Saudi Arabia or maybe Russia.

[Sam Spade]

McCain is fast becoming the compromise GOP nominee.  People need to wake up and smell the coffee.  He may not even need to win SC to win the nomination.

How do I know this - look at the new NY polling.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Hillary is a slam dunk to appoint a far lefty to the Supreme Court.  You can count on it 110%.  Maybe two or three.  God help us.  Stevens and Souter were disasters but that doesn't mean that's what we will get from McCain.

I watched the debate last night and the only two things I agreed with McCain last night on were national security and spending.  He got a free ride on illegal immigration as no one called him on it.  Global warming he's horrible - just like Hillary.

BTW, I just saw that Hillary said yesterday there are "no illegal women".

GOD HELP US ALL.  We're soooooo screwed.

First, I agree with you:  "GOD HELP US ALL.  We're soooo screwed" if McCain gets the nomination.

Second, while I haven't said much about McCain and National Defense, but let me provide you a little information.  McCain is very bitter that he only got to be a four striper.  Heck, he was a graduate of the Naval Academy, a POW and the son and grandson of Admirals.  One of my uncles is a four stipper, without the advantages in promotion that were McCain's.

Third, if Hillary tries to nominate a lefty, suspect the Senate will refuse to confirm.  If McCain were to nominate a Stevens/Souter clone (and I think he would), the nomination would go through handily.

Fourth, the press is doing its best to supress the issue of illegal aliens in an effort to help their boy.

[agcatter]

Uh. the last lefty appointed by Bill Clinton WAS Ruth Ginsberg and I believe she was confirmed something like 89 - 7 or some such ridiculous number.  Not only did the senate Republicans roll over - I believe Orlin Hatch advanced her name to Clinton as one who could get confirmed.  Boy, was she ever.  So I don't know where you get the idea that the senate "would refuse to confirm.

I wish I had as much faith in Hillary as you do.

BTW, CNN poll came out today -

Cinton by 2 over mcCain, 18 over Romney, 19 over Huckabee.

Obama by 1 over McCain, 18 or 19 over Romney and huckabee.

Seems to me we might get to find out if Hillary will be as harmless as you seem to think.  Don't bet on it.

[Person Man]

...and Clinton is already at 50%.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Uh. the last lefty appointed by Bill Clinton WAS Ruth Ginsberg and I believe she was confirmed something like 89 - 7 or some such ridiculous number.  Not only did the senate Republicans roll over - I believe Orlin Hatch advanced her name to Clinton as one who could get confirmed.  Boy, was she ever.  So I don't know where you get the idea that the senate "would refuse to confirm.

I wish I had as much faith in Hillary as you do.

BTW, CNN poll came out today -

Cinton by 2 over mcCain, 18 over Romney, 19 over Huckabee.
 
Obama by 1 over McCain, 18 or 19 over Romney and huckabee.

Seems to me we might get to find out if Hillary will be as harmless as you seem to think.  Don't bet on it.

I am not saying that Clinton or Obama would be "harmless," but rather that the harm that would be done by McCain would be worse.

If the elder Bush had somehow gotten reelected in 1992, we would never have had a Republican Congress elected in 1994, but would have had Justices like Souter nominated, would have had a round of tax increases, etc.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

Absolutely. Bet on it. McCain has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate running, and the lowest disapproval if you exclude respondents with no opinion. Many Giuliani supporters are bound to like McCain as their second choice.

Yes, I was strong for Rudy but at this point I do not think he can win.  I will be voting for McCain in NY primary. 

[Person Man]

Absolutely. Bet on it. McCain has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate running, and the lowest disapproval if you exclude respondents with no opinion. Many Giuliani supporters are bound to like McCain as their second choice.

Yes, I was strong for Rudy but at this point I do not think he can win.  I will be voting for McCain in NY primary. 

What if he won Florida?

[JSojourner]

Hillary is a slam dunk to appoint a far lefty to the Supreme Court. That's what I am praying for. You can count on it 110%.  Maybe two or three.  God help us. She will, if we only humble ourselves and pray. Stevens and Souter were disasters but that doesn't mean that's what we will get from McCain.They were and are great Justices.  But I could see why a person wouldn't care for them if he or she prefers the Thomas-Scalia-Roberts-Alito tribe.

I watched the debate last night and the only two things I agreed with McCain last night on were national security and spending.  He got a free ride on illegal immigration as no one called him on it.  Global warming he's horrible - just like Hillary. Thanks, that gives me hope that if Obama or Clinton can't beat McCain in the fall...we WON'T be fubar.

BTW, I just saw that Hillary said yesterday there are "no illegal women". I know.  I prefer she had said, "There are no illegal human beings."  That's been my mantra for decades, now.

GOD HELP US ALL.  We're soooooo screwed. You're feeling precisely what I felt in 1999-2000.  I sincerely do feel your pain, even if I completely disagree.  It's troubling when you love your country to see it headed in a direction you think is disastrous.  And while I think my conservative friends are absolutely wrong, I can't question their devotion to this Republic.

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

Absolutely. Bet on it. McCain has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate running, and the lowest disapproval if you exclude respondents with no opinion. Many Giuliani supporters are bound to like McCain as their second choice.

Yes, I was strong for Rudy but at this point I do not think he can win.  I will be voting for McCain in NY primary. 

What if he won Florida?

  I'd still vote for McCain.  Rudy needed to prove he could attract independents and democrats.  Finishing last in every primary so far killed his chance to demonstrate that.  We'd have to guess that he could.  McCain has proved he can. 

[Person Man]

Absolutely. Bet on it. McCain has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate running, and the lowest disapproval if you exclude respondents with no opinion. Many Giuliani supporters are bound to like McCain as their second choice.

Yes, I was strong for Rudy but at this point I do not think he can win.  I will be voting for McCain in NY primary. 

What if he won Florida?

  I'd still vote for McCain.  Rudy needed to prove he could attract independents and democrats.  Finishing last in every primary so far killed his chance to demonstrate that.  We'd have to guess that he could.  McCain has proved he can. 

What if you are wrong with McCain?

[Smid]

According to the Michigan exit polls, McCain won in the demographics he's won in other states. Romney persuaded the demographics that typically go to Huckabee to vote for him (evangelicals, including regular church goers, issues/shares my values, enthusiastic/supportive of the bush administration, self-confessed conservative, etc). McCain needs Huckabee and probably Thompson to contest the southern states. If Thompson drops out, Huckabee will probably pick them up easily (and may do, even with Thompson in). If both drop out, Romney will probably get Huckabee voters a la Michigan and win the southern states. In a Romney/McCain showdown, with Romney taking the south and west, Romney will be the nominee. McCain needs Huckabee and/or Thompson in the race now more than ever.

McCain will pick up California (he's already ahead there) and most of the north-east (latest polls have him ahead in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and trailing Giuliani in New York by just three points), but if he's to win, he needs to keep the south out of Romney's hands and I think his best bet at doing that is for Huckabee and/or Thompson to stay in.

[Gustaf]

I'm not so sure. A lot of Huckabee's voters are people who think the religion of the candidate matters a lot. Do they really want a Mormon? Also, most Huckabee voters are poor. Romney is the rich man's candidate. While I do lean towards most Huckabee voters going Romney I don't think it's a done deal for Mitt. Secondly, if Guliani drops out I expect McCain to take at least as many of them as Romney takes from Huckabee. That will even things out.

[Smid]

I'm not so sure. A lot of Huckabee's voters are people who think the religion of the candidate matters a lot. Do they really want a Mormon?

Very good point, Gustaf. That was precisely my thought prior to Michigan, and indeed, up until I looked at CNN's exit polls following Michigan. People voting for Romney in Michigan included people who were evangelicals, regular church attendees and said that a candidate's religion mattered. I was confused by that, because that would have suggested to me that they would have voted for Huckabee, but Romney won those voters over. I don't know how, I don't know why, it just seems to be where they went. Maybe it was the case in Michigan that while they fitted that Huckabee voter profile, and may well have voted for Huckabee in other circumstances, they may just have decided that Romney's ties to Michigan were more important than his religion (even though they acknowledge that it matters). Perhaps, then, they wouldn't swing behind Romney in other states. It's just something I observed in the Michigan exit polls and thought I'd pop it out there for discussion.

Secondly, if Guliani drops out I expect McCain to take at least as many of them as Romney takes from Huckabee. That will even things out.

I think you're right. I think we're seeing McCain picking up Giuliani voters now, even before he drops out. Recent polls have McCain winning California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and even New York (by a pretty big margin).

Regardless, however, of whether McCain picks up California, Oregon, Washington and the north-east, if Romney takes Idaho through to Illinois and down to Colorado, then McCain needs to stop the southern states going to Romney. If conservative voters went for Romney over McCain in Michigan, then it's possible they may do so again in the south. From McCain's perspective, the best way to stop the south going to Romney may well be to let it go to Huckabee, which it can't do if Huckabee pulls out of the race.

Obviously it's not a definite that Huckabee voters would go to Romney, but it's certainly a possiblity.