Surprise states for either party?

[JSojourner]

Will any states surprise one political party in the general this year?

Like, will Hawaii go Republican?  Might Indiana go Democrat?  You get what I'm driving at.

Or are will doomed to another election cycle of Jesusland versus the coasts and Illinois, no matter who runs?

[Tender Branson]

Will any states surprise one political party in the general this year?

Like, will Hawaii go Republican?  Might Indiana go Democrat?  You get what I'm driving at.

Or are will doomed to another election cycle of Jesusland versus the coasts and Illinois, no matter who runs?

Virginia may go Democratic and Obama could win Hawaii by about 58-42%, same as IL ...

[ottermax]

Obama would win Hawaii very easily. The people there will be happy to vote for someone from their state. Hawaii will not likely vote GOP; the Dems have a strong hold on the state. It could be close.

I think a surprise state depends on the candidates. I could see Washington going for Giuliani if Clinton wins the nomination, although it would be close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Or are will doomed to another election cycle of Jesusland versus the coasts and Illinois, no matter who runs?

Illinois and Minnesota and Wisconsin.

[Aizen]

If Obama is the nominee, I see Hawaii breaching 60%

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC of course.

[JSojourner]

If Obama is the nominee, I see Hawaii breaching 60%

Probably.

I wonder if maybe the Republicans could surprise us in Oregon, Washington or Maine.  Or maybe the Democrats could shake loose North Carolina, Kentucky or Montana? 

Probably not...but it's fun to speculate about.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huckabee isn't going to win any of the states for Republicans being mentioned, that's for sure.

[Hash]

If Obama is the nominee, I see Hawaii breaching 60%

Probably.

I wonder if maybe the Republicans could surprise us in Oregon, Washington or Maine.  Or maybe the Democrats could shake loose North Carolina, Kentucky or Montana? 

Probably not...but it's fun to speculate about.

In a Democrat-leaning year such as 2008, the Republicans will need lots of momentum to win any 2004 Kerry states.

[Jake]

It all depends on whether Obama is elected. He has the chance to do something like Clinton in '92 and put a lot of states in play that weren't already, simply because of intangibles (charisma, change, etc.). It all depends on whether he's nominated and how the media frames his campaign. Hillary versus any Republican will be 2000/2004 all over again where there's a few states in play.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd give the GOP a shot in NH, WI, and OR, but it will be very hard for them to win any Kerry states.  I think the Democrats could surprise us in IN, NC, TN, MT, and AZ (of course, I have had us win all of those states in at least one of my more hackish maps )

[Flying Dog]

Clinton is not gonna break 70% in MI.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Obama has a 4-1 margin of winning Missouri over any Republican.  Not to mention, Missouri has been the best bellwether state in the last 100 years, save for one year, I think.

Arkansas is a suprise state that could go Democrat.  Remember, Clinton is also an Arkansas girl just like she is a New York girl.

And, I'm going to say it again, Oklahoma could be a suprise state.  That Sooner Poll is not an accurate poll.  It was the same poll that showed Bush and Kerry tied in 2004.  A more reliable poll for the Sooner State is SUSA, and remember back in the fall, SUSA came out with a poll showing Edwards beating every Republican by a good margin, Clinton running neck and neck with all of them, and Obama getting beat pretty good by all of them.  I don't think Edwards would win as big as SUSA shows, nor would Obama lose as big as it shows.  Clinton would run neck and neck with any of the Republicans in Oklahoma.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama winning in Virginia and coming close in North Carolina.

[Meeker]

Obama wins Montana.

[Nutmeg]

Or are will doomed to another election cycle of Jesusland versus the coasts and Illinois, no matter who runs?

Illinois and Minnesota and Wisconsin.

And Michigan.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama wins Montana.

Somebody's been drinking a little too much Tester/Schweitzer kool-aid.

[Meeker]

Obama wins Montana.

Somebody's been drinking a little too much Tester/Schweitzer kool-aid.

It's flavored with pure, raw, Montana testosterone.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama wins Montana.

Somebody's been drinking a little too much Tester/Schweitzer kool-aid.

It's flavored with pure, raw, Montana testosterone.

LOL.  It's made with organic ingredients and it's now free of Abramoff cash!

[afleitch]

Georgia may be good for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd give the GOP a shot in NH, WI, and OR, but it will be very hard for them to win any Kerry states.  I think the Democrats could surprise us in IN, NC, TN, MT, and AZ (of course, I have had us win all of those states in at least one of my more hackish maps )

Ha, I remember your worst map ever, all of those states voting for the Dem but WV still voting for the Republican, being the only state in the region to do so (and against Giuliani too!)

[Padfoot]

I would be really interested in seeing results in the South if Obama is the nominee.  Would the increased black turnout be enough to make some of those states competitive?  What kind of ceiling would he have in those Deep South states that are 20-30% black?

[HardRCafé]

Georgia may be good for Obama.

Uh-uh.  I'm here now, and all I'm hearing is that he'd never get elected anywhere.  Surprise, people.