Will Kurt Beck ever be Chancellor of Germany?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now this had to be done...

[minionofmidas]

No. The next chancellor of Germany will be either Gabriel or Wowereit or whoever leads the first West German red-green-red coalition government. And will take office not after the next Bundestag elections but  the ones after that (which, in the ~80% chance that the Grand Coalition will still be in place after the next elections, may very well be held before 2013.)

[BenNebbich]

lol.

merkel is winning the next two elections. maybe she won't even need the f.d.p.

spd is done. after more than 100 years. they survived the kaiser and the nazis, but they will not survive the imcompetence of their leaders. i predict the spd on bavarian level all over germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

lol.

merkel is winning the next two elections. maybe she won't even need the f.d.p.

LOL for the latter part in particular.

[BenNebbich]

you may be right.

that was extreme.

but i think germany in mainly a conservative, may be even right wing country.

and the left-center (spd) is smashed at the moment.

so the conservatives have the momentum for at least the next decade.

2010 : cdu/csu/fdp coalition (i'm quite sure)
2014 : cdu/csu (i see a 50% percent chance)

[Middle-aged Europe]

you may be right.

that was extreme.

but i think germany in mainly a conservative, may be even right wing country.

and the left-center (spd) is smashed at the moment.

so the conservatives have the momentum for at least the next decade.

2010 : cdu/csu/fdp coalition (i'm quite sure)
2014 : cdu/csu (i see a 50% percent chance)

The next Bundestag election will take place in 2009 (at the latest), not 2010.

You also have the keep in mind that there were only four Bundestag elections where the CDU/CSU had dropped below 40% nationally... 1949, 1998, 2002 and 2005. So, for the last three times the CDU's result has been well below (historical) average. Also, in 2009 it will have been 15 years since the last time CDU and FDP had won a majority in the Bundestag. Finally, Merkel is no Adenauer und 1957 was a long time ago. A few months prior to the 2005 election the CDU had polled at 50%... they ended up with 35% in the end. Currently they're polling at 38% or 39%. Do the math. I'm not saying that the SPD is in a good shape right now, all I'm saying is that the same basically applies to the CDU... maybe they're only better at hiding it for the moment. But the undeniable fact is that both the CDU's and the SPD's result in 2005 has been pretty abysmal.

All in all, I tend to agree more with Lewis here. To expect an absolute majority for the CDU on national level any time soon is pretty delusional. That said, the CDU will probably again become the largest party in 2009 and there's a relatively high likelihood that Merkel will indeed remain Chancellor. If they're lucky, the best case scenario for them will be a CDU/FDP coalition. A repetition of the 2005 stalemate is also possible though. If the latter happens they will try to round up the usual suspects...  traffic light, Jamaica, maybe even Red-Red-Green. However, a continuation of the Grand coalition simply out of necessity is more likely than it would seem now (or than it would be admitted by both the CDU or the SPD). So, there's certainly an element of unpredictability involved. In order of likelihood I'd say that Germany will be governed by one of the following coalitions after 2009: 1) CDU/SPD, 2) CDU/FDP, 3) SPD/Greens/Left, 4) SPD/Greens/FDP, 5) CDU/Greens/FDP.

I won't try to make specific predictions here what will happen in the election after the next election. That's simply too far into the future. Only a few things seem to be sure for the 2013/14 (?) election:
- It remains highly unlikely that the CDU will win an absolute majority.
- 2013/14 will almost certainly see no Grand coalition anymore, especially if this coalition is continued after 2009.
- Provided that neither CDU/FDP nor SPD/Greens will win a majority in 2013/14 the likelihood for "alternative" models such as Red-Red-Green, CDU/Greens, Jamaica or Traffic light will be higher than ever... one of those will probably come into existence then.

[minionofmidas]

A few months prior to the 2005 election the CDU had polled at 50%... they ended up with 35% in the end. Currently they're polling at 38% or 39%. Do the math.

I've done the math, and what it tells me is that SPD supporters aren't as turned off by the SPD-in-Government as they were in 2005 - because they can blame the CDU for the things they don't like about the SPD-in-Government, mostly.

As to Jamaica... it's simply not an option federally. Period. Black-Green can work - does work, in many places - but only on the condition that the two parties are on an at least sort of roughly equal level (CDU less than 2.5 times the Greens' size, say). Being as influential as the FDP in a CDU-led government is as alluring an option to the Green party as becoming the pope's valet is to Ian Paisley.

[Cubby]

Angela Merkel seems to be doing a good job. At least she isn't shouting her love of America from the rooftops the way Sarkozy is doing. The economy is doing well in Germany, the Grand Coalition has survived for 2 years and I like her style in general.

I supported Schroeder, until he went to work for Russia right after leaving office. Europe needs to be careful about relying on Russia too much.

I know that Wowereit has been mentioned as a possible future chairman of the SPD, but would he hurt the SPD vote by a large amount in any regions? (besides Bavaria, since they are in the 17th Century).

[Lief 🗽]

Why is the SPD so averse to a coalition with die Linke? To an outside observer, it would seem like they would make natural coalition partners (along with the Greens). Similarly with the FDP and the CDU/CSU.

[Cubby]

Why is the SPD so averse to a coalition with die Linke? To an outside observer, it would seem like they would make natural coalition partners (along with the Greens). Similarly with the FDP and the CDU/CSU.

Because die Linke was founded by disgruntled former SPD members. Maybe SPD feels that die Linke hurts their vote in the former GDR a lot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know that Wowereit has been mentioned as a possible future chairman of the SPD, but would he hurt the SPD vote by a large amount in any regions? (besides Bavaria, since they are in the 17th Century).

Is this meant as a reference to his sexual orientation or the fact that he's heading a SPD/Linke coalition in Berlin?

Well, you could argue that the SPD will do badly in the southern states with Wowereit... particularly in rural areas. On the other hand, the SPD does badly in rural South Germany anyway, so it's unclear what damage Wowereit would do exactly. But in my opinion it might actually be possible that a SPD with Wowereit as chairman will do better at the polls than a SPD with the "centrist" Kurt Beck. Things like charisma etc. are playing here a role.

Why is the SPD so averse to a coalition with die Linke? To an outside observer, it would seem like they would make natural coalition partners (along with the Greens). Similarly with the FDP and the CDU/CSU.

Because die Linke was founded by disgruntled former SPD members. Maybe SPD feels that die Linke hurts their vote in the former GDR a lot.

Actually, DIE LINKE was mostly founded by former PDS (or SED) members... however, the fact that some former SPD members were "adopted" by the PDS/Linke is indeed a factor here. Those former SPD members, Oskar Lafontaine in particular, are more or less considered "traitors". And because of the PDS's history, there's still a certain taboo in connection with SPD/Linke coalitions... at least when in comes to coalitions on the federal level or in West German states.

You also have to keep in mind that it isn't only the SPD who is ruling out coalitions with DIE LINKE. In the latter party there are relatively strong factions who do not want to govern with any "neo-liberal" party... such as the SPD.

[Cubby]

I know that Wowereit has been mentioned as a possible future chairman of the SPD, but would he hurt the SPD vote by a large amount in any regions? (besides Bavaria, since they are in the 17th Century).

Is this meant as a reference to his sexual orientation or the fact that he's heading a SPD/Linke coalition in Berlin?

Well, you could argue that the SPD will do badly in the southern states with Wowereit... particularly in rural areas. On the other hand, the SPD does badly in rural South Germany anyway, so it's unclear what damage Wowereit would do exactly. But in my opinion it might actually be possible that a SPD with Wowereit as chairman will do better at the polls than a SPD with the "centrist" Kurt Beck. Things like charisma etc. are playing here a role.

His orientation. And thats a good thing

I wasn't sure if he'd be a weak candidate, the way that Michael Foot was in Britain or George McGovern was in the USA.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know that Wowereit has been mentioned as a possible future chairman of the SPD, but would he hurt the SPD vote by a large amount in any regions? (besides Bavaria, since they are in the 17th Century).

Is this meant as a reference to his sexual orientation or the fact that he's heading a SPD/Linke coalition in Berlin?

Well, you could argue that the SPD will do badly in the southern states with Wowereit... particularly in rural areas. On the other hand, the SPD does badly in rural South Germany anyway, so it's unclear what damage Wowereit would do exactly. But in my opinion it might actually be possible that a SPD with Wowereit as chairman will do better at the polls than a SPD with the "centrist" Kurt Beck. Things like charisma etc. are playing here a role.

His orientation. And thats a good thing

I wasn't sure if he'd be a weak candidate, the way that Michael Foot was in Britain or George McGovern was in the USA.

I suspect that the SPD/Linke coalition thing could hurt him more than his homosexuality... well, his opponent(s) would at least concentrate on holding the first thing against him. Using the homosexuality issue would probably backfire very hard.

[minionofmidas]

I know that Wowereit has been mentioned as a possible future chairman of the SPD, but would he hurt the SPD vote by a large amount in any regions? (besides Bavaria, since they are in the 17th Century).

Is this meant as a reference to his sexual orientation or the fact that he's heading a SPD/Linke coalition in Berlin?

Well, you could argue that the SPD will do badly in the southern states with Wowereit... particularly in rural areas. On the other hand, the SPD does badly in rural South Germany anyway, so it's unclear what damage Wowereit would do exactly. But in my opinion it might actually be possible that a SPD with Wowereit as chairman will do better at the polls than a SPD with the "centrist" Kurt Beck. Things like charisma etc. are playing here a role.

His orientation. And thats a good thing

I wasn't sure if he'd be a weak candidate, the way that Michael Foot was in Britain or George McGovern was in the USA.

Not that kind of weak candidate.

[BenNebbich]

spd first needs to restore their base in hessen, northern germany & nrw. this might last a few years. then their might be a person at the top, who can challenge the cdu successfully.

at the moment the spd is done, they are the junior partners in the coalition and (hopefully) after the next election in the opposition.

beck, gabriel & wowereit won't ever get to the top.

i suspect we will see the next left-center kanzler in the 20' of this century.

[Michael Z]

What Lewis said. Gabriel or Wowereit are safe bets for the next SPD Chancellor, which probably won't happen until after the 2009 election. I also suspect that a red-red-green coalition is the only realistic hope the SPD has of forming a government, at least for the foreseeable future.