Polls are now showing Obama tied with Clinton in New Hampshire.
There is as well a possibility of an Obama win in Iowa.
If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how much damage does this do to the Clinton campaign, given the fact that she has been ordained as the front runner for well over a year?
Please discuss.
Hillary's "lead" outside of New Hampshire + Iowa is more a function of name recognition than anything else.
If Obama wins Iowa + New Hampshire most of that "lead" will vaporize as fast as you can say "negative attack ads"
I see two scenarios if Obama pulls off the double....
Firstly, Hillary will saturate the airwaves attacking Obama. This may work - Obama has presented a number of targets that can be hit, and the MSM remains Hillary's ace in the whole, they have always been, and remain, utterly and totally in the tank for her.
This scorched earth strategy could backlash against Hillary - her negatives are already very high - and then it's Obama in a walk - or Hillary could find the right balance and take Obama down.
As a libertarian with previous strong ties to the GOP, I am nor sure who I am rooting for.
The GOP needs a "time out" - they need to be in the wilderness for a while. The Bush II reign has been a betrayal to everything libertarian leaning republicans have every believed - the party has lost it's soul. The need to find their soul again, and they place you do that is in opposition.
If Hillary gets the nomination, the GOP stands a decent chance of holding the White House (I think Hillary would be a slight favorite, but we would have a real horse race) , and in terms of rebuilding a party I could actually support, I am not sure this is the prefered option.
I kinda want Hillary to win, so the GOP has a shot, but I also hope Obama wins so America can have a fresh start, and the GOP can rebuild it's self so they are once again fit to govern.