Nevada?

[JSojourner]

A few questions about Nevada...

1.    Since it is now much earlier in the Primary season, how much more important is it to the
       candidates? I know one debate was held there, but beyond that, I've not heard much
       about candidates touring the state.  Thoughts?

2.    Will regional allegiances and interests play into this race?  For example, Richardson is a
       western governor...McCain is a next-door neighbor...and Nevada has a decent-size
       Mormon population.  Might any of these things be a factor?

3.    Which candidates in each party will gain the most (in terms of momentum) by winning in
       Nevada?

"Tawk amongst y'selves..."

[reformer]

For Romney it would only be a footnote to a victory in NH and Michigan. Nevada is too small and too early to signify a turn around, and if Romney wins Michigan, losing Nevada is no sweat.

If Huckabee gets it, it would present extream momentum, and Nevada resembles the kind of states he's have to win on super Tuesday. From a political spectator point of view, this is important, but won't make much of a media dent and probably won't really influence voters. If Romney or Giuliani wins Michigan and Huckabee gets Nevada however, it might prevent news stories declaring the end of the Huckaboom.

For McCain, it would only be a plausible state if he comes in first or a close second in NH. If he does that, Nevada would be a symptom of momentum, and would give him great opprotunities come Feb Five even if he loses other states. From a candidate with high name recognition who was declared dead, any victory is a huge deal.

It would be most important as a Giuliani victory. Just a little momentum is all he needs to get tons of press attention, which will give him the push into Florida. If he gets Florida, He will be the man to beat on Feb Five.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

For Romney it would only be a footnote to a victory in NH and Michigan. Nevada is too small and too early to signify a turn around, and if Romney wins Michigan, losing Nevada is no sweat.

If Huckabee gets it, it would present extream momentum, and Nevada resembles the kind of states he's have to win on super Tuesday. From a political spectator point of view, this is important, but won't make much of a media dent and probably won't really influence voters. If Romney or Giuliani wins Michigan and Huckabee gets Nevada however, it might prevent news stories declaring the end of the Huckaboom.

For McCain, it would only be a plausible state if he comes in first or a close second in NH. If he does that, Nevada would be a symptom of momentum, and would give him great opprotunities come Feb Five even if he loses other states. From a candidate with high name recognition who was declared dead, any victory is a huge deal.

It would be most important as a Giuliani victory. Just a little momentum is all he needs to get tons of press attention, which will give him the push into Florida. If he gets Florida, He will be the man to beat on Feb Five.

More or less, you summed up my thoughts.  IMO, the state will go to Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

How big is the Mormon population in Nevada? It might just turn out to be another Idaho or Utah for Romney.

[Colin]

How big is the Mormon population in Nevada? It might just turn out to be another Idaho or Utah for Romney.

12% according to Wikipedia.

[Mr. Morden]

I suspect that NV will get more attention on the Dem. side than the GOP side.  It's the only contest that counts on the Dem. side between Jan. 8th and 26th, so it'll get some attention.  On the GOP side, NV votes the same day as SC, so it'll probably get overshadowed....though I guess it could cushion the blow for say, Romney, if he wins there but loses SC.

[Smash255]

hard to say, I don't think regional influence will be that big.   The bulk of Nevada's population and Primary voters on both sides (though heavier on the Dem side) is in and around the Las Vegas metro area.  An area filled with transplants from all over the country.

[MAS117]

NV is going to be a pure toss up. No one in NV has ever caucused before and this will be new to them. Whoever wins IA and NH I suspect will win NV.

[Verily]

NV is going to be a pure toss up. No one in NV has ever caucused before and this will be new to them. Whoever wins IA and NH I suspect will win NV.

The point about the caucuses in Nevada being chaos is an important one. I was listening to NPR the other day talk about how they're trying to train people on how to caucus but even the leaders of the training sessions often don't know what they're doing.

[jimrtex]

Nevada holds precinct caucuses.  On the Democratic side, they hold a non-binding preference poll at the precinct caucuses, but don't select delegates to the county convention on that basis.  The process is repeated at the county convention.  It is only at the state convention where an actual allocation based on state delegate preferences is done.

I don't think that Nevadans in general are as civically minded as in other States, and the process used is distinctively different that a primary election.  So how do candidates get their supporters to show up and take control of precinct caucuses?  I'd expect that there to be a strong influence of party officials who may prefer to remain uncommitted until later.  Perhaps if one of the labor unions in Las Vegas is backing one of the candidates they might try to encourage members to attend the caucuses.

The Republican process is even less regulated.  In this case Romney might have an advantage if Mormons enocourage participation in caucuses.