Wisconsin prediction - 8/4/04

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here is what WI looks like to me, as of today:



Kerry: 48.5%
Bush: 47.5%
Badnarik: 2.5%
Nader: 1.5%

Badnarik will tip Wisconsin to Kerry.

[AuH2O]

Harry Browne did very poorly in Wisconsin, and I can't imagine why/how Badnarik would do a lot better. You're talking about an over 10X increase in the Libertarian vote... highly unlikely.

Nader goes down a bit, Libertarians up fractionally, Bush wins due to strong national performance.

[jacob_101]

That is a very good prediction....I like the map too!  I would tend to agree with you.  In a head to head match-up who do you think would win....Bush or Kerry?  I say it's a tie.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Harry Browne did very poorly in Wisconsin, and I can't imagine why/how Badnarik would do a lot better. You're talking about an over 10X increase in the Libertarian vote... highly unlikely.

Nader goes down a bit, Libertarians up fractionally, Bush wins due to strong national performance.

Ed Thompson got 11% in 2002.  Some of that is name recognition, but I base my prediction of a strong Badnarik showing on that.  I admit I could well be off my rocker, though.

I'm very confident in the map, however.